I want to revisit some familiar issues involving Fredo, Roth and Michael:

First, did Michael suspect Fredo before the Superman show gaffe? I don’t think Michael believed that Fredo was actively complicit in the Tahoe shooting. When he told Hagen, “Right now you’re the only one I completely trust,” I think he might have meant to add “…to run the family while I’m away.” His statement about Fredo: “…he’s got a good heart, but he’s weak and stupid, and this is life and death,” meant that he wasn’t confident in Fredo’s ability to protect the family—not necessarily that he thought Fredo had a role in the shooting, or would try again.

Second, if Michael didn’t completely trust Fredo, why did he tell him, in Havana: “Can I trust you with something?” and then reveal that he was going to have Roth killed? If Michael’s lack of trust of Fredo centered on his ability to be temporary Don rather than being in cahoots with Roth in the shooting, then Michael was simply letting his brother in on his plans. When Fredo asked what he could do, Michael said, “Just go along as if you know nothing”—not trusting Fredo to take an active role, but perhaps using Fredo to keep up the deception that Michael’s relationship with Roth was still good. Michael did give Fredo a couple of searching looks—in the hotel room when Fredo asked if there was anyone in Havana that he knew; and at the nightclub, when Michael introduced him to Johnny Ola. But again, I don’t think that Michael suspected Fredo of actively participating in the Tahoe plot. That would explain why he looked so devastated when Fredo made his fatal gaffe at the Superman show.

Third, did Michael ever consider giving Fredo a pass after Havana? Maybe—just maybe. Certainly Michael wanted Fredo to return to the US with him, not out of brotherly love but to learn as much as possible from Fredo. Ever-practical Michael also probably wanted to assure that Fredo didn’t fall into the hands of the Cuban authorities and perhaps implicate Michael in Roth’s murder (Michael didn’t learn that Roth survived until he got back to the US). But I think he may have meant it when he told Tom,”…tell him everything's all right. Tell him I know Roth misled him -- and he didn't know they were planning to kill me.” Michael may have wanted to believe it. But, after the meeting in the boathouse, when Fredo screamed out all his resentment and anger at Michael, he knew that there was no way he could let his brother live: with Fredo complicit in one attempt on his life, and with so much jealousy and bad feeling still bottled up in him, Michael would never feel safe with Fredo alive.