An erudite member of these Boards PM’d me with two very interesting questions re. Roth and Michael:

First, what if Fredo hadn’t revealed his treason at the Superman show? Would Michael have gone ahead with whacking Roth, knowing that doing so would stop him from identifying the traitor?

In a word: Yes. Michael had been stringing Roth along with the $2 million to buy time so he could identify the traitor. But he had a deadline: he knew that Roth had arranged for him to be assassinated in a military car that would take him back to his hotel after the New Year’s Eve party in the Presidential palace. He had to act before that: as he told Fredo (before Fredo revealed himself): “Hyman Roth will never see the New Year.” Time was running out, so Fredo’s fatal gaffe at the Superman show was a fortuitous development for Michael. As we saw, he gave the order to his bodyguard as soon as he recovered from the shock of learning that Fredo was the traitor. Fortuitous circumstances are a Hollywood script mainstay—they keep the plot perking along and keep our attention glued to the screen. (For the record: the combination of Michael’s persistence and Fredo’s stupidity would have revealed Fredo’s treason sooner rather than later.)

Fortuitous script stuff aside, Michael was the one in mortal peril, and his survival had nothing to do with his arranging Roth’s disability or death. Roth wasn’t going to drive the military car or pull the trigger. He would have arranged Michael’s assassination with Batista or one of his top henchman days in advance. The assassins would have gotten their orders from their boss—not from Roth, who would make sure that his involvement was hidden from everyone except Batista and his top henchman. The assassins would be all over Michael like white on rice. It wouldn’t have mattered to them if Roth was at the party or not, or if he lived or died—all they knew was that they had orders from on high to “escort” Michael to his hotel and kill him before he got there. They’d never have let Michael leave the palace on his own and escape to his waiting private airplane.

So: the real fortuitous circumstance was Batista’s abdication. As soon as he announced that he was fleeing Cuba, the assassins forgot about Michael and started worrying about something far more important—their own survival.

Second, how did Michael know when and how Roth was planning to have him whacked? This is another of those fortuitous script developments. Michael probably got his invitation to the Presidential New Year’s Eve party from Batista or one of his top henchmen because he was a VIP--one of the business pezzanovanti who had met with Batista earlier. I’m guessing that the Batista henchman offered Michael military transportation as a VIP perk as well as for his "safety.” But since Michael knew that Roth was behind the Tahoe attack, he didn’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure that Roth lured him to Havana because, as the most powerful gringo, he could have Michael killed by his government pals. Therefore, Michael was looking for a government move against him—and the VIP perk for his "safety" was the tipoff.