I saw that poll, Goombah, he's actually leading Ohio now. If he wins any of those big three (Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio), it's all over.

Will it be over for her even with her super delegates?

I agree Goombah, but let me say that I am hearing Hillary has a double digit lead in Ohio. Yet Obama people just arrived there and I think the difference will get tighter.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/ohio.html

I have real issues with these superdelegates. I hope it doesn't go that far, but it just may. It's been such an unusually close (and exciting) primary process that I wouldn't call anyone a winner yet (well as far as the Dems go, I think it's safe to assume McCain is the Rep). I just think that Clinton was not expecting the competition she's getting with Obama.

TIS

For the past couple of days I've been seeing a Obamba commercial but I haven't seen any Hillary commercials. (Not that it bothers me)

I heard that Bill Clinton is a super delegate. Isn't that biased?

I think Hillary is far from dead in this election. Obamamania is quite impressive, but the Clintons, love them or hate them, are battled tested on the campaign trail. I'm certainly no big fan of Hillary, but she is sharp and will battle to the end, and Bill was as good a campaigner we've seen, and rose from his own ashes more times than I can remember.

I believe as of this date, though, that either Obama or Hillary would whip McCain's ass in November.

See, I disagree about Bubba Clinton but either way Hillary/McCain would be a bitter as hell campaign where the American people pick between touching dog shit and horse shit, a gun shot or a knife stabbing, etc.

I just think if Obama gets the Democratic nomination, he will have an easier time to defeat McCain if only because McCain for the GOP right now is Kerry 2004 (and that's not in a good way) and with McCain's age.....yup.

BTW, did anyone read that DNC dirt sheet that's been circulating around about Obama's VP/Cabinet politicking?

Considering that Hillary's campaign blew most of its $120+ million budget before Super Tuesday.....

Yeah, she underestimated that black kid...and how dare he step out of the black party storm trooper division and try to wrest her birthright to Democratic dominance?

I have seen conflicting polls. One I saw locally said Obama was up, but the others said Hillary was still leading comfortably in Ohio. I think that it will be very close in the polls by the time the primary voting is held.

John Lewis, a black Georgia congressman, announced today that although he backed Clinton, he will pledge his superdelegate vote to Obama. David Scott, another black Georgia dem, did the same earlier this week. This may encourage other black superdelegate voters to do the same.

Just to catch him in the pledged delegate count, she'd have to take two thirds of the overall vote in the states she's counting on. Couple this with the potential superdelegates switching over to Obama and I think it's all over. It seems to me the rats are already jumping off the ship.

I'll tell you one thing. If he wins the pledged delegate count and they try to hand her the nomination anyway, it will set race relations in this country back 50 years. I'll quit the democratic party and register as an independent the very same day.

Here's a Link

I agree that the polls definitely will tighten as the time approaches, and if things stay as they are, I'm guessing even if Hillary wins, it'll be razor close. I don't dislike Hillary either, and yet part of me has to laugh, not just at her, but myself and all of the media for assuming she had it locked up. You never know what's gonna throw you off your mark. She's gotta be reeling!!!!!

Yes, I heard about the Georgia Congressman "turning" and also, FWIW, Obama in his campaign speech, says that he's had republicans come up to him saying they are voting for him. Also, listening to C-Span callers, and reading blogs (fwiw) I've heard/read how some Republicans are going with Obama. True or not, I have to admit, that Obama gives off a sensation of excitement inspires a hope that I haven't felt since both JFK and RFK. There's definitely something going on politically speaking, regardless how this plays out. I am assuming that many are just fed up and willing to put change above experience.

TIS

The Constitution offers no provisions requiring primary elections. In fact, the Constitution doesn't address political parties. Before 1912 the political parties selected their nominees at national conventions, attended by delegates, who were selected at state conventions. The selection of delegates and ultimately nominees was done in smoke filled rooms where party bosses and other leaders made promises and exerted influence.

A western state (I forget which one -Oregon or Washington) was the first to allow for an election to allow for the selection of delegates. The system evolved and each state has their own delegate requirements from "winner take all" to committed and open delegates. The evolution of the primary system maintains the national convention, which largely has become superfluous, and would be only necessary if neither candidate had a majority of delegates.

When I vote in a primary, I always reserve my delegate votes for those, who are committed to the candidate I'm supporting. I could never understand how people could vote for non-committed delegates. I remember the controversy in 1980 when Ted Kennedy trailed Carter in delegates during their primary, and he and others were pushing for an open convention that would have freed up all the delegates, and changed the rules in the middle of the game.

But I agree with pizzaboy that if Obama has a majority (not just a plurality) of the delegates going into the convention, and Clinton leaves the convention as the nominee, there will be hell to pay.

Change above experience?

With all respect, TIS, where is her experience?

She wasn't President, she was First Lady, and I use the term lady very loosely.

Now they are going after Obama because he is a good orator. Truth is he's got as many 5 point plans on his website as anyone, and furthermore nobody pays a damn bit of attention tho that wonkish stuff anyway. The three people who insisted on droning on and on about these things were MOndale, Gore and Dukakis, and look where it got them. On the other hand the best orators of the last half Century were JFK Reagan, and Bill Clinton, and love 'em or not, they were more effective leaders than the non orators like Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter.

PB,

You're right, let me rephrase (I think I'm a victim of the media spin, because I agree, First Lady is NOT experience) Let me put it this way, it's perceived that she has experience because in some loose way she was "in the loop" and married to a President and people are perceiving that as experience. Get my drift? But again, I do agree with you and often wonder why people think First Lady is a qualification for President.

TIS

Gotcha' lady!

Her experience is:

1) Destroying the reputations and lives of any woman who dared come forward with allegations of sexual impropriety by Bill.

2) Holding grudges for years against real and perceived enemies.

3) Blowing the chance to get Universal Health care for America when a Democrat was in the White House and Controlled the congress, due largely to her stubbornness and sercretiveness.

She is a female Nixon.

Best post in this thread yet!

I admit to being a political geek these days. I watch a lot of cable political news, have watched most of the debates (on both sides) and read quite a few blogs and political sites. So, based only on that, a few observations:

1. Dems who support Obama, will also be ok with Hillary should she get the nomination. However, for the most part, those who support Clinton do nothing but trash Obama and say they won't vote at all or they'll go with McCain. Lots of anger there.

2. I also wonder, from what I've read, if many of the ladies (especially in my age group) that are of the "woman's lib" generation, are perhaps favoring Clinton because she is female. When truth is, I am pleased to see that we are ready for either a female and/or black President, even if they don't win this time around.

3. Listening to NPR last week as they were interviewing foreign dignitaries from Germany & Russia (sorry, don't remember names). Both were saying how their countries are totalling following this election as well. They are fascinated by Obama, and Germany couldn't see the big deal of a woman leader, as their Chancellor is female. They both said they heard in both Clinton/Obama's speeches how "American is broken" and both asked what they meant by that and wanted them to elaborate. Interesting for sure. Since these countries will be dealing with America, and since we are not very well liked right now, I can imagine they have a legitimate interest.

TIS

I am not too sure about this because Billary have pissed off a lot of his supporters by playing the race card and being dismissivle of his accomplishments in life. He has been nothing but a gentleman and they have not played nicely at all. I think Obama people may stay home if its McCain v. Clinton. Bottom line is moderate Dems are not threatened by McCain and may not be moved to go out and vote against him.

I would do the same thing, Pizzaboy, but I do not think that it will come down to that. The last thing the Democrats want is a controversy of their own making during the election. It would be as bitter as Bush v. Gore in 2000. If one candidate is leading, unless it's by 1-10 delegates, I feel that the superdelegates will not go against the will of the primary voters.

Yeah, sorry TIS, I tend to agree with DT on this.

I'll cite myself as the example. As I stated earlier, I'm a lifelong democrat, who really considers himself a moderate, because I have a conservative side as well as a liberal. I'm with Obama all the way, and should he lose the nomination to party shenanigans, I'm voting for McCain.

Now, from a second generation, New York City born democrat, I think that's a pretty strong statement. And I should tell you, I'm not the only Obama supporter that feels that way around here. McCain is much more liberal than Hillary in some areas, and in my opinion, a truly better person. Besides, that butthole Rush Limbaugh doesn't like him. That makes him okay in my book.

I don't know. Hillary has recently pissed off people with the race card yes. I am hoping not to have to make the decision, but I still think I'd take her to McCain. I don't want 100 more years in Iraq and he seems a bit to anxious to "bomb bomb bomb Iran", as he once said. Not to mention him saying, "there WILL be more wars." Doesn't sit well with me at all. Then, that's my opinion.


TIS

There are so many issues at hand! We've all become complacent after September 11th that it's scary.

Would I vote for McCain? I don't know. I think he's a decent man, which is saying a lot. But damn he's old. My mom moved in with us when she was 70. And it was astounding to see how she declined physically in those first 8 years. She's a toughie, and I can't imagine her trying to keep up with that schedule. Could he? I think it's doubtful. And what if he develops dementia or Alzheimer's? It's not out of the realm of possibility.

As for Hillary, I think that she's a smart and aggressive woman, and those are things that people don't like. They're talking about Obama's oratorical skills, which are HUGE, but she's no slouch in that department either. I do think that her role as First Lady would help with foreign relations as it relates to diplomacy, but I don't know what else that has gotten her.

Obama's oratorical skills are so amazing his accent changes depending on who he's talking to. Weird if you ask me.

It's freezing here. It's the sort of weather that, no matter what you're doing, your limbs are always cold.

Well, I'm with you there. I don't want to be in that position either. I just hope it's a clear cut nomination either way. Again, I'd vote for McCain over Clinton, but not if he picks an ultra-conservative, redneck running mate.

Time will tell.

I will take an early guess at McCain's running mate: Mitt Romney.

It's too early for me to guess a VP for Clinton or Obama.

I think there's a good chance it could be Clinton or Obama.

I dunno. If you're Obama, do you want Bill Clinton living in the White House second guesssing you?