You raise good points Partagas. I agree that we shouldn't be so quick to extrapolate a caucus win into carrying a state in November. But it appears, and we all know looks can be deceiving, that Obama can win a few states that went Republican in 2000 & 2004. Whether this plays out, we'll see. But I think Clinton's approach of just trying to win the big states and hoping for a win in either Florida or Ohio is flawed.

I picked McCain to win. I appears the Hillary balloon is losing air. So let's assume it's BO. Will the youth (or should I say younger) vote and the minority vote be enough to offset all of the folks who still can't get themselves to vote for a Negro? I know my die-hard Democrat in-laws in Pennsylvania will have a hard time pulling the lever for a man of color. They just stopped using the n-word a few years ago.

Well, she's campaigned in just about every state, not just the big ones (remember New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina).

The electoral vote scenarios are endless. Winning big electoral vote states cannot be ignored. With 20% of the electorate now consisting of Independents, I'm guessing that most of those Independents are apostate Republicans. So, I think they could be attracted to Clinton rather than Obama.

Not trying extrapolate at all with caucases. I think those are extremely scewed and should not be looked at all when thinking of November. I mean give me a break -- Obama took kansas with 70% of the caucas -- you think he could carry Kansas?

I think the real question we have here is, which candidate has the most baggage?

If it becomes McCain/Obama this fall...which candidate is representing the party associated with both an economic downturn, the party now even admitting they "sorta" fucked up the planning and staging of the Iraq War, and that conflict going nowhere soon at this rate...

Then you have the GOP, which many disgruntled conservatives can tell you, haven't done jack shit in the last 6 years they had Congress before losing it in 2006 during Bush's Presidency, and they can preach and sermon about how the evil Democrats will raise your taxes....and this time, they just feel empty.

I mean, when Bush is your biggest spending Presidency since LBJ....someone fucked up along the way.

I think Obama could win not simply whatever he's the better candidate or not, but 2008 is a year when the public will be asked, "Do you want a Sequel to Dubya?"

As for Obama/Kansas....again, we're mistaking the forest for the trees.

Obama won't necessarily win red states, but he could threaten them, such traditionally soft GOP turf that McCain will have to spend cash and time to tend fortifications for...and cash is which he is sorely lacking, compared to Dubya the last two elections.

Everyone keep in mind that caucuses are party functions. Nationally, they're only indicative of the possible numbers that will turnout to vote. The Dems have the lead so far, but, again, the Indepenents willprobably be pivotal.

I said "we" but meant the "media" in regard to extrapolating the caucuses to the general election - my mistake. No I do not think that Obama will take states in which there have been conservative strongholds. I merely meant that he has a chance in the states that were teetering in 2000 & 2004 and went Republican.

As was pointed out earlier, the election, I think, may well be determined by the states, which typically aren't locked in as a Dem or Rep state. These include, but are not necessarily linited to, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and Wisconsin. Of those states, I think the Democratic candidate wins all, except Florida, Missouri and Virginia, and wins the election with about 294 electoral votes.

I will predict that the state with the closest race will be Missouri.

Keep in mind it is very early and a lot can happen.

McCain Erases Obama Lead

Apr 10, 1:39 PM (ET)

By NEDRA PICKLER

WASHINGTON (AP) - Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama's 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates in an Associated Press-Ipsos national poll released Thursday.

The survey showed the extended Democratic primary campaign creating divisions among supporters of Obama and rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and suggests a tight race for the presidency in November no matter which Democrat becomes the nominee.

McCain is benefiting from a bounce since he clinched the GOP nomination a month ago. The four-term Arizona senator has moved up in matchups with each of the Democratic candidates, particularly Obama.

An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.


(AP) Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., addresses the crowd during a town...
Full Image

Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent. Factoring in the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied.

That is funny!

If McCain gets sworn in I predict that he'll have a heart attack from the shock.

I don't really know that much about US politics but Mr. McCain was in the UK press saying nice things about us Brits so he gets my vote.....even though i don't have a vote

You Brits are great cooks and you tan better than anybody.

True. But in the meantime, here are some of the primary voting stats by party. As you can see, the Dems are doing pretty good.

Date State Turnout
Jan. 3 Iowa (D)118,696 (R)354,355
Jan. 8 New Hampshire (R)288,058 (D)527,376
Jan. 15 Michigan (R)592,261 (D)1,481,761
Jan. 19 Nevada (D)44,315 (R)161,874
South Carolina (R)532,468 (D)978,145
Jan. 29 Florida (D)1,924,346 (R)4,239,350
Feb. 1-3
Alabama (D)554,248 (R)1,090,541
Alaska (D)15,000 (R Proj.)23,621
Arizona (D)527,335 (R)970,659
Arkansas (D)226,001 (R)780 (G)537,696
California (D)2,932,811 (R)46,022 (A)35,844 (G) 16,858 (L)6,444 (P)9,068,415
Colorado (D)65,400 (R)185,401
Connecticut (D)146,333 (R)483,602
Delaware (D)49,281 (R)143,956
Georgia (D)963,447 (R)2,024,214

McCain was pretty cool on THE VIEW the other day.

Watching him and Barbara Walters reminisce about the Civil War brought a tear to my eyes.

Ooooh....you get my vote also

Well it doesn't really matter who I think will win the truth is that no matter who wins this nation will be f*cked.

Ice, I always love your optimistic view on things

Yogi,

Just out of curiosity, is our election "big" news there and, although they don't have a say, is there any one candidate that the Brits seem to prefer? One that they think will work well with your leader? I suppose this question could apply to anyone here on the BB that is from another country.

TIS

As fucked as the last 16 years?

This country has spent most of its time since JFK's assassination completely and totally fucked.

Who's naive Kate?

Yes.

I thought this was a funny picture.



CROWN POINT -- Hillary Clinton showed her Midwestern roots by enjoying a couple mugs of Old Style on Saturday night at Bronko's restaurant.

The presidential candidate also drank a shot of Crown Royal whisky with mayors David Uran of Crown Point and Tom McDermott Jr. of Hammond before settling in for pepperoni pizza in the bar.

I saw her down the shot on tv. She'd fit right in at one of our sitdowns. I'd love to see her sitting down to drink next to AppleOnYa.

Hey TIS,

Yes your election is big news over here but the media are obsessed with the Clinton/Obama tussle. Mr. McCain rarely gets a mention.
Our leader Mr. Brown is such a snivelly,crawly little worm that he would get on with whoever wins the election. He will just tell whoever wins that he was behind them the whole way

Brown is'nt popular over here. He has'nt actually been chosen as a Prime Minister. He simply took over from Blair when Labour were already in power. Funnily enough he refused to call an early election which could have cemented his position (if he won of course,which may be in doubt)

Maybe he was scared of losing and just wanted to make sure he got at least a couple of years as PM in first.....

Do the tories have someone who can defeat Brown?


As for over here, I just took a peek at the poll.. no a lot of love for Hillary. Not that I can blame anyone, she can be soooo grating.

Please let it be Obama

The present leader of the tories is a chap called David Cameron who is riding high in the opinion polls these days!

Chances are he may beat Brown next time.