If Obama takes NH, Hilary is toast.

Of course it's way early and anything can happen, but....FWIW


I still don't buy into the idea that Hillary is the favorite. I never have. I think that's what the media wants us to buy. They lean right and they know that Hillary is hated by so many. The media "wants" her to win because they think it'll be a fairly easy Republican win in the end. That along with the fact that, I still do not know of one person who says they are voting for her. I'm not surprised she came in third.

That being said, anyone watch this caucus yesterday? Obama gave a truly inspiring speech. He brought out more young voters than ever before and that gave him a bigger edge.

TIS

Iowa picks corn -- New Hampshire picks presidents.

Name the last winner of the Iowa Caucases that went on to win their parties nomination????

Iowa does not pick a winner - it just weeds out the has-beens. It is a interesting state in which the Republicans are very conservativ and the Democrats very liberal.

I don't think there were many suprises. If any maybe the degree to which Huckabee did win; maybe that McCain did not sneak up into third; and also that Edwards did not win since he has been there since 2004. Money won on the Democratic side (Obama spent the most on advertising (in his neighboring state); but also lost in the huge amount that Romney poured in. Bottom line -- what a boon for the economy of Iowa!

Blame all this caucas stuff on McGovern

True, but I put forward Howard Dean in 2004.

The "front-runner" for the Democratic nomination, he bows a 3rd-place finish at Iowa. His people claim that it didn't matter, that New Hampshire is what matters...then the "Scream."

And he got his ass kicked there again.

That speech is the "great moment" of the campaign season so far.

The Obama situation in New Hampshire may be different. New Hampshire likes to knock off "unstoppable" establishment candidates. That's the bed Hillary made and now its the bed she is going to have to sleep in. If young people turn out in NH and give Obama a victory, its game, set and match.

Also, FWIW in Iowa they had a record number of youth show up for the caucus which is what gave him the edge. If he can do it again in NH that would be to his advantage as well.

Is anyone suprised at Huckabee?



TIS

Huckabee is surprisingly charismatic for a conservative. Romney is the most gracious second place finisher I've ever seen. The silver medal comment was hysterical. As a New Yorker, I really lost a lot of respect for Rudy for his blase attitude toward Iowans and the caucus in general. Fred Thompson should see if he can still get a job with one of the Law And Order franchises.

As for the Dems: Obama's speech really inspired me. It's just setting in that he's the first real Presidential contender from my generation. Edwards 2nd place finish is huge for him. I think Obama-Edwards gives the Dems their best shot.

I know it's early, blah, blah, blah, but I'm gonna' say it anyway----Hillary is toast. Likeability counts, and no one really likes her, not even the people who are backing her. Did you notice the faces in her entourage? For someone who has been using "change" as her theme, there were an awful lot of tired old faces in her crew----read: 90's Dems.

If you want real change you have to change the type of person you vote for, not just your party line.

Yes, in the commentary afterward, they noted that this President could very likely be the last President of the Babyboomer generation and that people are more concerned about a "change" as opposed to the same old thing. I believe that could very well be the case.

TIS

I got to my precinct location around 6 PM when the caucus was to begin at 7. I was a precinct captain for Joe Biden in my township of Keokuk. We had 65 people show up to the caucus in our township alone (a township is a precinct in rural areas). In order for Biden to be viable, we needed 15% (which is the constant formula for finding viability), so 15% of 65 was rounded up to ten caucus-goers. However, when we got there, and looked for others who want to take our side, there was only ONE undecided voter out of all of them (who ended up joining her daughter in Edwards' preference group). Even if we were to get her to join us, we would still need another six people to gain just viability alone. After the first count of how many in each preference group, the big three: Obama, Edwards, and Clinton pulled in the most people, as Dodd had two (a firefighter and his wife), and Biden had three (my parents and I). When the count was taken and Biden was counted as not enough for viability, my parents basically abandoned me, then again, it was kind of a lost cause. They asked me where I would go, and I chose Obama. So although we signed in as Biden supporters, his lack of viability caused Obama to receive our caucus votes.

Edwards had an overwhelming majority in my township, and in other precincts who met at our location. It didn't really surprise me, as I knew Edwards would do well in Ottumwa, as his blue-collared appeal has won over many voters in my industrial town (population around 26,000).

Basically, my parents and I saw the caucus as an attempt to support Biden, and if that didn't work, an attempt to not support Clinton. We didn't chose Obama blindly, however, as we went to some of his events in Ottumwa (I even worked in his campaign office at one time and canvassed for him), my mother got her picture taken with him at one event, and he signed my copy of "Audacity of Hope".

Now it should be interesting to see how the candidates do in New Hampshire, especially Giuliani who pratically ignored Iowa believing he could get the nomination without winning the caucuses. It was nice to see Ron Paul get a decent place, as he landed in fourth behind Thompson and ahead of Giuliani. Maybe the strong independent parties of New Hampshire will help boost Paul furthermore.

The GOP's way of handling the Iowa Caucus I much prefer over the democrats' way. They basically show up and vote. They don't do it in accordance to their precinct, but all of the registered Republicans in Ottumwa met at the high school, whereas the democrats scattered like cock-a-roaches (I caucused at Agassiz Elementary). And if you vote for somebody in the GOP caucus who wouldn't be viable in a democratic caucus, it can still count. That's what frustrates me about the democratic caucus, a lot of these underdogs like Richardson, Dodd, and Biden had no voice when viability spoke. In a way it contradicts the essential meaning of the democratic party, and that's a voice for the underdog along with a voice for the people.

Interesting account. I see Biden and Dodd have dropped out of the race, and I suspect that will help Obama more than Clinton.

I admire Bill Clinton and think he was a very good but not great president who will probably be remmbered for Monica Lewinski. I strongly dislike Bush and I believe he will be seen as one of the worst presidents of all time. It would be a sorry legacy for the boomers all they produced were thse two as their only presidents.

I don't think this will be the boomers' last shot. If you're going by 1946-1951 as dates of birth, the'll be around for the 2012 election. Just do the math. Beyond that, well, then they're entering Bob Dole territory (running in their 70's).

If Obama wins and serves two terms it will be 2017 when the next president is inaugurated. I doubt that some aging boomer would replace him.

I think that Obama just may surprise everyone, as did Clinton back when he first ran. Nobody expected him to get the nomination, and it's ironic that his wife could very well lose what seemed to be an easy win.

I think that we as a nation are not yet ready to elect a woman president, I don't care if Mother Teresa was running. Plus, Hillary lost a lot of possible supporters who are afraid that she's going to turn our healthcare system into socialized medicine.

Although many decry Obama's lack of experience, I think it's going to turn out that it will be what appeals to people. They want youth, they want energy, they're sick of the "same old" and they are VERY sick of the established politicians. And if he can bring out the young people, who traditionally don't vote, then he's got an excellent shot.

Or perhaps Edwards-Obama.

Yeah, for sure. Don't forget, there are still some boneheads that might vote for a black man in the #2 spot but not the top spot.

I always associated baby boomers with the years 1946-1964? I understand that there was a significant drop in the birth rate in the mid-60s, largely due to the use of artificial birth control.

That's exactly why I think an Edwards-Obama ticket could work. I feel that many from the democratic party like and trust Edwards, and that those from the other parties, if forced to pick a democrat, feel comfortable with Edwards. While there are many who claim that they would vote for Obama as President and trust him to lead this country, there are just as many who may like Obama but just do not feel comfortable with his lack of experience as well as his age, to run this country just yet. Let's be real here, whomever walks into the Presidency has a whole lot to deal with right now both Internationally and Domestically.

And in all probability, those who like Obama but are not sure if he should be the leader of this country right now, would feel more comfortable with an Edwards as their leader than Obama. The youth of this country would still back Obama, even if he were named as a running mate, therefore giving Edwards the youth vote that he currently does not have. And that's why I think if Edwards were to name Obama his running mate, that would be the best scenerio for the democratic party.

Exactly. The more I gain experience, the less value I place on it.

DC, I am n0t sure about Edwards. Last time around he couldn't even carry his own state let alone anyplace else. Keep in mind he did not run for re election to the Senate from North Carolina because he was going to lose by all accounts. Instead he's been camping out in Iowa for the last couple of years, and look what that got him -- an eight point trouncing by Obama.

On top of that Edwards' wife is a very sick woman and she is likely to deteriorate over the next year. They've got two small children, and I think he needs to be dealing with all that and not the presidency.

The real elephant in the room is Obama's race, and no matter what the polls say there will be people who claim to support Obama who will not vote for him in the privacy of the voting booth. That's exactly what happened in Tennessee to Harld Ford, who led in the polls, and earlier to a black man for Governor of Virginia, whose name escapes me.

Bottom line is Obama needs to hold th states Kerry won and pick up one or two more. If he gets the nomination, I believe he should pic Evan Bayh from Indiana. He's white, and he's a midwesterner who wins over and over in a traditionally republican state. This would put two midwesterners on the ticket, and it would force the republicans to spend resources in places they usually take for granted. The olf south will never vote for any democrat, let lone a black one, so they can write off places like Mississipi and Alabama, and focus on Florida, Ohio, Tennessee, Indiana, Illinois, New Mexico and Nevada. I think if they pick up any three of those states they win it all.

Exactly proves my point. He did not win. he was a front runner. Did not meet perceived expectations and was thus was weeded out

You think they'd vote for a woman in the top spot?

No. Same mentality. Personally, I won't vote for Hillary because I don't like her, it has nothing to do with her gender. Really.

Tony Love,

What an interrsting fun experience being able to go to a caucus. I sure wish I was retired this year. I'd love to get politically behind a candidate and work for him (or her). I am just learning the difference between the caucus and primary. It is very confusing for sure, but to really believe in someone and to be able to help promote that person sounds like a real rush.

I tend to think we are "more" ready than not for a woman or black President. They said that Iowa was traditionally a conservative/white state, so this caucus surely must have said something. Yet, yea, you never know. There are many out there who simply wouldn't vote for a woman/black. I would love to believe we are far beyond that.

They will be having N.H. and then several others in the next two weeks. We'll have to see how it plays out.

TIS

I think more peole would vote for a woman, but not Hillary. As a long time Dem, I would probably vote for her in the general election, but I would do so holding my nose. There is nothing likeable and little genuine about her. Plus she has an annoying voice that I dont care to listen to for the next four years.

Some valid points Don T. Very valid.

But something tells me that this time around more people have begun to embrace Edwards. And the battle that he and his wife took on with her health can actually be a positive for him.

I also feel that in this election many non registered democrats will not vote their own party and will cross party lines. And in doing so I feel that if the democrats want to pull those kinds of votes over to their side, their best shot of doing so is by having Edwards as their man.

If non dems decided to vote democrat in this elecetion, I feel that most would probably feel comfortable voting for Edwards over Obama or Hillary.


I feel that most in this country do NOT think that Obama is Presidential material just yet. I think that many feel that right now, with the country and the world being in the state it is in, that he is not the right man for the job at THIS time.

What's terrible about this election is that republican or democrat, I think that most are going to vote by a process of elimination, rather than voting for who they sincerely feel is the best candidate for the job. Voting for the least of the worse. And again, that apllies to BOTH parties.

I agree, TIS. I think that a woman or African-American can be elected, if he/she is the right person, and if gender or race is made an issue, all the better for that candidate, especially someone like Obama, who seems that he could deal with the issue of his lineage with the same appeal and eloquence that John Kennedy dealt with his religion.

Of course, there are those, who won't vote for a candidate because of his/her race, gender, religion, etc., but those people are fewer than they were years ago. There are also those, who will vote for Obama or Clinton because of this too.

By the way, the Clintons are fierce campaigners and hate to lose. She was very complimentary and gracious in her remarks last night, but I expect the gloves to come off as she may need a solid showing in NH. She wore the bull's eye in Iowa, and now Obama has it in NH.

My personal opinion is that there are too many rednecks and biggots in this country that will not vote for Obama simply because he is an African-American. Clinton has ravenous support and hatred, even from her own party. The only chance Obama has, in my estimation, is if minorities and young people turn out in record numbers at the polls and vote for him. It's going to take a heck of an effort to overcome the hillbillies/corruption in southern Ohio, the deep south, Texas, and the red states out west.

None of the candidates from either party really inspire me. I will still vote, but politics in this country has become all about deep divisiveness, smearing the opponent, and who spends the most money. These candidates all line up and spout off about improving education, paying down the deficit, and providing universal health coverage. Yet, when the time comes for action, nothing is done. John Edwards, Guiliani, Romney, et al. do not care about these issues - they care about getting elected.

The issues most important to me are (in no particular order) 1) ending the Iraq War, 2) improving the environment and our dependence upon Middle East oil, 3) getting our lagging school systems up to standards, 4) stopping the escalating health care costs for those who are insured, 5) insuring everyone, 6) maintaining the safety of our country and finishing the job in Afghanistan and, if necessary, Pakistan, 7) end the corporate taxbreaks and helping the everyday people of this country by reducing the tax burden, and 8) doing something to help rebuild New Orleans instead of the areas only seen on tv during sporting events.

I just read that Hillary lost the women's vote to Obama 35%-30%.

That stat has to have her reeling.