Obama stalls in public polling, by David Paul Kuhn

In the two months since Barack Obama captured the Democratic nomination, he has hit a ceiling in public opinion, proving unable to make significant gains with any segment of the national electorate.

While Obama still leads in most matchups with John McCain, the Illinois senator’s apparent stall in the polls is a sobering reminder to Democrats intoxicated with his campaign’s promises to expand the electoral map beyond the boundaries that have constrained other recent party nominees.

That gap between expectations and reality comes as Democrats enjoy the most favorable political winds since at least 1976. At least eight in ten Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track. The Republican president is historically unpopular. From stunning Democratic gains in party registration to the high levels of economic anxiety, Obama by most every measure should have a healthy lead. Yet in poll after poll, Obama conspicuously fails to cross the 50-percent threshold.

Or as ABC News polling director Gary Langer asked, “If everything is so good for Barack Obama, why isn’t everything so good for Barack Obama?”

Obama remains ahead, depending on the national poll, by low to high single digits. The Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, which randomly interviews at least 1,000 voters each day, has recently found that Obama leads by 3 to 4 percentage points.

In the first full week of the general election, June 9 to 15, Obama led by between 2 and 7 percentage points. Just short of two months later, registered voters have not significantly shifted their view, as Gallup finds public opinion still fluctuating between roughly the same margins.

“What’s remarkable this summer is the stability of this race,” Gallup’s director Frank Newport said. “In a broad sense, it is similar to previous elections.”

In Gallup’s last national poll prior to the 2004 party conventions, for example, John Kerry led George W. Bush 47 percent to 43 percent. In 2000, also in Gallup’s last national poll prior to the party conventions, Bush led Al Gore 46 to 41 percent.

Three demographic groups have generally kept Obama ahead in the past two months: African-Americans, youth and Hispanics. But a lead based on those groups is a tenuous one. The youth vote, notorious for not meeting expectations, must turn out in significantly higher numbers than in past elections. Obama must continue to win the black vote nearly unanimously and still turn out new African American voters. McCain must continue to underperform with Hispanics by about 10 percentage points compared to Bush in the summer of 2004.

McCain might also be said to have hit a ceiling himself. At best, he has only statistically tied Obama for fleeting periods this summer.

Yet in this Democratic year, the subject that dominates chatter among pollsters is Obama’s stubbornly slim lead.

If there is a primary explanation as to why the race has remained close this summer, it is that Obama has failed to make gains overall with white voters, who still cast about three in four ballots on Election Day.

Like Gore in 2000, Obama nearly splits white women and loses white men by a large margin, according to an aggregate of polling in June and July 2008 and 2000 polling by the Pew Research Center for People and the Press.

Depending upon the week in June or July, by Gallup’s measure, Obama has roughly fluctuated between splitting or, at worst, trailing by about five percent with white women. In that same period, Obama has only won between 34 and 37 percent of white men.

In general—and with men in particular—Pew's data shows that Obama's gains with young whites compared to Gore in 2000 are offset by a weakness with older whites.

Obama also seems to have hit a ceiling with Hispanics. Latino support fluctuates between 57 percent by the latest weekly measure to 68 percent the week before—roughly the margin of Hispanic support that has marked the entire summer, by Gallup's measure.

What all this suggests is a general election that is much tighter than many analysts predicted and defined by far more stubborn levels of support.

As it stands, on August 3 the RealClearPolitics average of national polling had 46.6 percent of the public supporting Obama, putting him narrowly ahead of McCain. Exactly two months before, on June 3, that same average had Obama at the exact same level of support—46.6 percent.

One thing to consider is that, unlike prior elections, candidate support may have solidified already.

Yeah, I agree. I hope so, anyway.

Latest AP poll: Obama - 47%; McCain 41%.

Obama can't crack 50% and McCain can't crack 45%

Your usual Republican Christian nutjobs...who else?

I don't think the word nutcase does James Dobson justice. He makes Pat Robertson look like a shaggy haired, patchouli wearing, kumbaya singing liberal.

It hit me last night that I am already sick and tired of McCain and Obama. They should just both shut up and go away until the conventions.

Funny, I was thinking the same thing. Problem is, if Obama takes too much time off, it looks like Hillary will start in with her 18 million voices need to be heard rhetoric; dividing the party even further than she already has.

If Hillary wants to have a roll call vote, it can be done at 3:00 a.m. Its about time someone bitch slaps her and puts her in her place.

Too bad Ike Turner died. He would have been perfect for the job.

If the rollcall vote occurs, it could be a Democratic Party strategy to enhance Hillary's presence at the convention and attract her supporters to Obama.

I think that Obama may be revisiting Hillary as VP and her high profile at the convention could facilitate his choice either way.

Only in fucking Florida. Relax Floridians, I own a home there too. Well, more fodder for Carl Hiaasen and Dave Barry.

Man held in Fla. on charge of threatening Obama By CURT ANDERSON, AP Legal Affairs Writer

MIAMI - A man who authorities said was keeping weapons and military-style gear in his hotel room and car appeared in court Thursday on charges he threatened to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

Raymond Hunter Geisel, 22, was arrested by the Secret Service on Saturday in Miami and was ordered held at Miami's downtown detention center without bail Thursday by a federal magistrate.

A Secret Service affidavit charges that Geisel made the threat during a training class for bail bondsmen in Miami in late July. According to someone else in the 48-member class, Geisel allegedly referred to Obama with a racial epithet and continued, "If he gets elected, I'll assassinate him myself."

Obama was most recently in Florida on Aug. 1-2 but did not visit the South Florida area.

Another person in the class quoted Geisel as saying that "he hated George W. Bush and that he wanted to put a bullet in the president's head," according to the Secret Service.

Geisel denied in a written statement to a Secret Service agent that he ever made those threats, and the documents don't indicate that he ever took steps to carry out any assassination. He was charged only with threatening Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, but not for any threat against President Bush.

Geisel's court-appointed attorney declined comment. The charge of threatening a major candidate for president or vice president carries a maximum prison sentence of five years.

The Obama campaign declined comment Thursday on the alleged threat.

In the interview with a Secret Service agent, Geisel said "if he wanted to kill Senator Obama he simply would shoot him with a sniper rifle, but then he claimed that he was just joking," according to court documents.

A search of Geisel's 1998 Ford Explorer and hotel room in Miami uncovered a loaded 9mm handgun, knives, dozens of rounds of ammunition including armor-piercing types, body armor, military-style fatigues and a machete. The SUV, which has Maine license plates, was wired with flashing red and yellow emergency lights.

Geisel told the Secret Service he was originally from Bangor, Maine, and had been living recently in a houseboat in the Florida Keys town of Marathon, according to court documents. He said he used the handgun for training for the bail bondsman class, had the knives for protection and used the machete to cut brush in Maine.

In the affidavit, the Secret Service said Geisel told agents that he suffered from psychiatric problems including post-traumatic stress disorder, but he couldn't provide the names of any facilities where he sought treatment.

Agree, and I want Republicans on this site who plan to vote for McCain to admit this fact: If Obama wins this fall, that means Hillary..and Bill...are knocked out of the White House ever again probably.


Come on, even AppleonYa might be smiling at that prospect.

An Obamacon's Advice for Obama

I'm on vacation, so posting will suffer this week and the next. But I was impressed by the responses--okay, some of the responses--to the previous item, in which I asked, Can a black man be elected president? Note the wide range of replies--from it's irrelevant to it's the main thing. Thus proving that we are indeed in the midst of a grand political science experiment, yet one with tremendous real-life consequences.

One noteworthy reply came directly to me in an email from Jeffrey Hart, a veteran conservative who has been a senior editor at The National Review since 1968 and who wrote speeches for Nixon and Reagan. He's an Obamacon, one of the rightwingers who are hot for Barack Obama. He writes:

I've read you Blog on maybe we can't elect a black president. But three weeks ago Obama was ahead in Gallup by 4-6 points. Obama was black then too. Then there came his trip to the Middle East, Iraq, Germany. Apparently successful. Now he and McCain are about equal in the national poll.

What explains that?

Only very recently Obama might have brought race into the foreground when he said "They will try to frighten you with etc. and the fact that "I don't look like those other presidents" on the currency.
McCain seized on that. Hoped that race would not be part of the campaign. Sure. He's delighted to have race in the foreground. In the Sat. NYT Bob Herbert cites earlier McCain innuendoes about race.

But those weren't taking hold as Obama's polls remained very good. Did Obama make a big mistake in that "not looking like other presidents"? Or have McCain attack ads about flip-flopping been enough to pull Obama's polls down?

That is, I think Obama's polls sank before the recent race business. What to do? Obama should attack (and run TV spots):
1. McCain supported a hugely expensive war sold with lies. Be specific.
2. McCain wants to make Bush tax cuts permanent -- "Hood Robin" tax-cuts. Robin Hood took from the rich and gave to the poor. Bush-McCain Hood Robin cuts give to the richest and take from the rest.
3. McCain would appoint Judges "like Roberts and Alito." There goes Roe. Women Alert.
4. McCain would renew Bush's attempt to attach Social Security to the stock market. The stock market drops about 200 points every time you look.
5. McCain has no national plan for medical care.
6. Play clips of Gramm saying people are "whiners" about lousy economy. That was a "gaffe," defined as when a politician tells you what he really thinks. Gramm was McCain's economic guru until he let it out what McCain really thinks.
7. Play TV clips of McCain hugging and kissing Bush. That absurdity sez it all. It may be that Obama is too nice. But to win he must go on the attack, but with comic touches.
8. The three presidential debates will be devastating for McCain: Pericles vs. Donald Duck.

Wow. It's not every day that Obama gets such advice (and cheerleading) from a National Review editor and former Reaganaut. Whether Hart is correct or not--and his plan sounds good to me--the fact that a fellow with his pedigree is rooting for Obama and hoping for him to hit McCain damn hard shows that this sure is one different election--and not just because of the race of the candidates.


http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/davidcorn/2008/08/an-obamacons-advice-for-obama.html

And that's the number one reason I hope that he wins.

I'm not sure what it means when someone states or writes that America can't elect a black President. Given the vote totals accumulated by Obama through the primaries and the support Obama has accrued as indicated by polls is prima facia evidence that America can elect a black President.

In any case, it might be useful tot he reader to keep in mind that percentages reported through a poll may be of likely voters or of registered voters. Current polls state that likely voters favor McCain and registered voters favor Obama. However, many of the percentages reported in either type of poll are within the 3-4% typical matgin of error.

McCain Accepts Donations from Jordanian War Profiteer Under Federal Investigation

"If there were a group of questionable donations all with the name Abdullah
that were funneled through a guy in Jordan
who is a Jordanian national
who is under investigation for war profiteering
and it were Barack Obama
instead of John McCain
would this be a big ger deal?"

Remember the Gore-Chinese campaign funding nonsense years back? Here we go again.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/06/AR2008080602485.html

I'm now thinking that it might be Bill Ricardson although Hillary is not out of the running. But one network has Obama with a projected 260 electoral votes already. If so, that makes Hillary expendable and a choice such as Richardson or Biden more likely.

Just my opinion, but I still think it will be Biden. Although anything is possible, I really don't think Hillary is in running. We should know this month sometime though.



TIS

Richardson would be an excellent running mate.

I think Hillary is pretty much out of it, being that they've pretty much made her the star of the Tuesday night show at the convention. I just can't see the upside of having a Clinton looking over my shoulder if I'm Obama. But you never know.

Richardson would help him with the Latino vote, for sure. But I think most Democrats are coming to their senses anyway. Meaning that he'll probably carry the Latino vote either way.

Anyone still think Edwards has a shot?

I've been predicting Bayh all along, but now I think its the guy from Virginia.

Great observation on Edwards

Hey, if they ever do away with term limits, how about a Bill Clinton/John Edwards ticket? It would give hope to fat women and used up crack whores everywhere.

At this point it's becoming more about Electoral College votes than the national popular vote or racial/ethnic or gender components thereof. It doesn't get much press, but Obama has had an electoral vote lead for weeks now. That's probably one reason that Obama's campaign has not been as aggressive as they might otherwise be - they don't want to make any mistakes.

With the Democrats already pretty secure with about 66% of the Hispanic vote and probably 90% of the black vote, they may want Richardson on the ticket to selectively secure the elctoral vote in southwest states where there are plenty of Hispanics. The black vote may make the Carolinas a battleground anmd Biden may help there a Kaine certainly might also. It gets pretty complicated.

Yes and they would change the National Anthem to "Blowin' In The Wind."

I didn't see this mentioned here and I don't know how many political "geeks" there are on the BB, but......Obama's website is sending it's member's an e-mail with the chance to hear via text message on your cell phone who his VP choice will be. (you can hear via e-mail too) How cool is that?

Granted, it may leak out before that, but supposedly, he will do it via text message/e-mail to the site's members just before he announces it. What an original concept. Anyway, I think it's really neat.

TIS

It is a good idea, TIS. If you think about it, it's almost a veiled swipe at McCain for being an out of touch "old man," being that Obama's people thought of it first. It's like they're saying, Hey, step into the 21st century. I mean, think about it, do you know many people in their 70's who even know what a text message is? Hell, most of them don't even know how to email.

Don't get me wrong, that alone wouldn't be a good enough reason to vote for anyone, but it's just another example of Obama being more "hip" than McCain.

Speaking of McCain. I think he's going to pick Ridge, and I have to admit, that's not a bad ticket. I also have to admit that I would have voted for that tandem had McCain gotten the nomination over Bush back in 2000.

I also think this situation with Russia and Georgia is going to give Mccain a boost; for how long is anyone's guess.

For the first time, I really think it's going to be a tight race. Obama has to start talking about more than just "change" right now. Mark Penn (Hillary's boy) recently remarked that, "just a 5 point swing can turn an Obama victory into a McCain landslide." Granted, it was a jealous, stupid thing to say, due to his very public chuminess with Hillary, but it's probably not too far from the truth.

It is still August, between now and election day is an eternity in politics. Obama needs to get more specific, and he needs to hammer the economy issue, and not get thrown off messsage by McCain's taunting him for being a "celebrity."

He can turn the Georgia - Russia issue on its head by tying Bush's "I saw Putin's soul" policy to McCain (even though that is totlly irrational and unfair).

I think Obama is waiting until after the convention to let loose with a barrage of ads, etc. that will pillory McCain for his association with Bush et al.