The national polls mean less and less as time goes by. Pay increasing attention to the state by state polls. They indicate which candidate will receive their electoral votes.
You're 100% correct. I'll have to look for it, but there was one site that gave McCain only a 14% mathematical chance of winning the election, based on State polling and what the current Electoral Vote projections look like.
CNN has Obama with 239 electoral votes to McCain's 189. Fox: 228 to 200
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