There's a good chance Obama is going to lose Florida anyway. Ohio is where you have to watch for shenanigans. My personal opinion is Obama is going to win fairly easily. I don't think McCain can recover from the week he's had. Obama should also do very well against him in the debates. Every day Palin's approval goes down, even amongst her own party and women. Unless Obama really stumbles in the last 6 weeks, it's his election to lose.