Gallup:

Obama - 50%
McCain - 44%

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

I expect Obama to do very well in the debates, especially the 3rd and final debate on the economy and domestic policy. McCain should have the have the upper hand on the first debate topic. Foreign Policy, and National Security. But, Obama by far will come across as the better speaker and more comfortable. I predict the Vice Presidential debate will be a disaster for McCain/Palin. Their only hope, (and it is a possibility), is that Biden says something really bad and stupid.

How to the American posters feel about this election, that it is a new era: You've either got first African American President or first woman Vice President.

I agree that as unfortunate as it is, race will be a factor for some. IMHO Obama would/should be ahead by much much more (sorry, but considering he competition especially), and all the flip-flopping and gaffes McCain's made. I keep hearing about this "Bradley affect" and think well that was then, maybe our nation has come a long way since then. Don't know.

I saw a video tape from David Plouffe (I beleive O's campaign manager). He had a detailed map of each swing state and explained their goal. He gave the numbers of how much Bush won won each state and how many votes Gore and then Kerry received, in the last two elections.

However, in each of those states, the Obama team registered in some cases 300,000(or enormous amounts of new voters. Part of me wants to go on record to say I have a gut feeling this will not be as close as many think. However, I hear that the young voters (which are most of the new registants) are the most unreliable ones to show up at the polls. So........who knows. Then too, there's the October surprise which could be a terror threat, in which case many assume everyone would run to McCain.

In any case, what an exciting and historic election this is.


TIS

Lets hope it is that and the stabilisation on worldwide markets.

And not just that, but the first one that could go out in public in a bikini. GIRL POWER!

Basically 5 minutes of Obama slamming McCain over the "fundamentally strong" gaffe and that recent quote of wanting to de-regulating the health industry BEFORE the recent market disaster.

Notice that propagandistic connection that Obama makes..."So let me get this straight, he wants to run healthcare...like they've been running Wall Street."

With all that, and bringing out McCain's potential Treasury Secretary's comment that America is a "Nation of Whiners" and only in a "Mental Depression,"...Is he hitting his stride here?

The De-Regulator flip-flop might hurt McCain.

Notice that how conservative George Will shits on McCain in his new Wall Street Journal piece.

I heard on the news how the conservative Wall Street Journal had ripped apart
McCain. That is definitely not good for him.

Did anyone see SNL yesterday? This is hilarious. Check it out "my friends".

TIS



http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/mccain-approves-open/669582/

And that skit once again plays into a possible perception that McCain is foolish or clueless, or willing to do anything* to win.

*=Which is silly, since both campaigns will do what it takes to win, but that fact is irrelevant compared to what public perception demands.

Poll gives McCain the edge in Ohio

Published: Sept. 21, 2008 Sept. 21

(UPI) -- A poll of Ohio voters Sunday indicated Republican John McCain with a slight lead over Democrat Barrack Obama in the U.S. presidential race.

The Ohio Newspaper Poll calculated a 6-point edge for McCain over Obama, though a sizable 19 percent of voters said they reserved the right to change their minds before Election Day.

The polling was carried out by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati and surveyed 869 likely voters from Sept. 12-16. The error margin was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

"Even though it seems like this presidential race has gone on for an eternity, in many ways, especially in Ohio, it's just getting started," Eric Rademacher, interim co-director of the institute told The (Toledo) Blade. "When you bring the margin of error into consideration, it's certainly a very close race in the state."

Among independent voters, Obama led McCain 38 percent to 33 percent with 19 percent undecided.

The (Cleveland) Plain-Dealer said the poll indicates McCain's age was not considered much of a factor in the race; however, black voters remained committed to Obama while McCain was favored among whites.

The Marist Poll has Obama +2. It's still very close in Ohio.

Here's some fresh Poll numbers for those interested:

McCain Ignorant on Financial Advisor's $45 Million Parachute

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrGyODKMtB4&eurl=http://www.awardsdailyforums.com/showthread.php?t=9266&page=19

Guys, well you've known my position on this race so far, but that shit right above fucking pisses me off.

I think most of us would, or mostly thought up until now, that political disagreements aside, he probably was a decent man. Maybe he still is, but when you go from attacking CEOs getting million $$$ parachutes, yet employed such a person as his financial advisor...and hell, highlighted in a DNC attack ad last week.

Either he's really really really ignorant this side of Dubya, or he's...well, we expect politicians to lie to us, but first flip-flopping from non-regulation to regulation within 24 hours, now this shit...where are the campaign advisors of his to point this shit out, like that "fundamentally strong" remark gaffe last week?

"I suppose the McCain campaign's hope is that when there's a big crisis, people will go for age and experience. The question is, who in this crisis looked more presidential, calm and un-flustered? It wasn't John McCain who, as usual, substituting vehemence for coherence, said 'let's fire somebody.' And picked one of the most experienced and conservative people in the administration, Chris Cox, and for no apparent reason... It was un-presidential behavior by a presidential candidate ... John McCain showed his personality this week and it made some of us fearful," - Conservative columnist George Will

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/21/abc-panel-tears-into-mcca_n_128055.html

Is this normal? I always figured NH as a liberal state, or does it have a history of going Republican?

How many debates are scheduled? I'm gonna miss the one on Friday.

3 Presidential, 1 for the VP's.

Kerry won N.H. in 2004 by less than 1%.

I wish they'd do more than one for the VP's.

In the last 10 elections, NH went Republican 7 times, '92, '96 and '04 are the exceptions.

I am really trying not to put a lot of trust in the polls, but of course, I still find myself checking them. FWIW, CNN as the electoral map, updating daily. Right now 223 Obama and 200 McCain. I think O will end up getting MI and McCain Florida. Not sure about PA. Those states have the most electoral votes if I'm not mistaken.

TIS

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html

I've seen many polls both before and after the convention in Pennsylvania, and despite the typical week to week vascillations, Obama generally comes out with a 46-44 margin.

Our local paper did a comprehensive breakdown of the state with polling, and while the Democrats usually win big in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and the Northeast, the midstate and upper tiers generally go Republican.

The Northeast part of the state (where I was born) gets a lot of attention in recent presidential elections. It's no coincidence that Scranton was the first stop for both Kerry and Bush after their respective conventions in 2004. There was also a calculated reason why Palin specifically mentiioned Scranton in her convention speech. The area is unusual in that it is heavily Democratic while being staunchly pro life. Also, Joe Biden is from the area and has great appeal among blue collar voters, the group that essentially won the primary for Hillary. Unfortunately for Obama, he came off as an elitist during the primary.

While McCain won't carry NE PA, his success in the state would depend, in part, upon how deeply he can penetrate the Democratic base in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton.

At this point I think Obama will win PA.

Looks like the electoral map is presently trending toward Obama, but things are fluid. In the present climate I really wonder what difference it will make who wins. In reality there is little a president can do about the economy, and truth be told the United States has lost its position as the financial capital of the world. Neither Obama or McCain will be able to change that.

Sad but true, Don T. Whether you're rich today, or poor today, odds are you'll be in the same boat four years from now.

Biden Fires Up the Gaffe-o-Matic
Tuesday, September 23, 2008 12:25 PM
By Andrew Romano

On the stump, Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden likes to say that John McCain is disconnected from ordinary Americans. But lately it seems like Biden is the one who's "out of touch"--at least with his own campaign.

When Barack Obama selected Biden as his running mate late last month, the punditocracy immediately predicted that the Delaware senator's predilection for saying stupid stuff at regular intervals--the term of art is "gaffe machine," I believe--would prove detrimental to his new boss's presidential bid. Until now, though, Biden's loose tongue hasn't been much of problem. It's not that he hasn't slipped up on occasion; he has, after all, admitted that Hillary Clinton "might have been a better [veep] pick" and asked the wheelchair-bound Missouri politician Chuck Graham to "stand up" at a rally. But so far, Biden's bloopers have been eclipsed by the planet-sized celebrity phenomenon known to us earthlings as Sarah Palin--a good thing for the body politic, given that most of his mistakes to date have been of the "totally irrelevant but typically distracting" variety.
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Not anymore. In the past few days--just as Palinsanity has begun to die down--Biden has made a series of strange public statements that suggest he's either at odds with Obama on key policy issues or that he isn't aware of what Obama believes. Individually, they've served to cloud Obama's message on matters of substance; taken together, they suggest that someone in Chicago should give the guy a good talking to. If he or she can get a word in edgewise, that is.

Biden's string of slip-ups started last Monday. Asked by NBC's Meredith Vieira whether the Fed should bail out insurance giant AIG, the senator said no: "I don't think they should be bailed out by the federal government." Unfortunately, the remark had more in common with McCain's initial position on the bailout (instinctive opposition) than Obama's carefully cultivated claim that he would not "second-guess" the government. When the bailout went through, both Biden and McCain bowed to reality. But the shift left Obama in a tricky position--as Matt Lauer pointed out this morning on "Today." Noting that Obama had been hitting McCain for flip-flopping on the AIG bailout, Lauer asked the Illinois senator how he could criticize his Republican rival when his own running mate had made the same mistake. His answer? "I think Joe should have waited, as well." Awkward.

The past few days have been even worse. Speaking Thursday on ABC's "Good Morning America," Biden not only acknowledged that the wealthy would pay higher taxes if if he and Obama won the White House but said that doing so would be "patriotic." "It's time to be patriotic," he said. "Time to jump in, time to be part of the deal, time to help get America out of the rut." Whether or not you agree with that sentiment, emphasizing that Obama would raise rates on rich folks (instead of saying that he'd lower them on the middle-classes) was clearly off-message--and the "patriotism" sound bite gave the GOP something catchy to hang its "redistribution of wealth" hat on. Accompanied by a sarcastic ad, McCain's response was scathing: "Raising taxes in a tough economy isn't patriotic. It's not a badge of honor. It's just dumb policy." Expect to hear more on Biden's idea of patriotism before Nov. 4.

Incredibly, though, the senator seems to have saved the worst for last. Asked last night by Katie Couric on the "CBS Evening News," Biden delivered what has to be most off-message statement yet: that one of his campaign's own ads--the spot released earlier this month mocking McCain for not being able to use a computer--was "terrible." "I didn't know we did it and if I had anything to do with it, we would have never done it," he said. The campaign was soon forced to issue a less-than-convincing clarification in Biden's name. (Apparently he'd "never seen" the ad.") Meanwhile, video surfaced this morning of Biden telling a rope-line environmentalist in Ohio that he and Obama "are not supporting clean coal" in America--even though Obama, well, is. McCain quickly pounced, using Biden's error to pivot away from Wall Street and make the case that Democrats don't support comprehensive energy solutions; conference calls and ads are in the works. Biden may have opposed the technology in the primaries--he's on record as saying "clean-coal ... is not the route to go in the United States"--but he should probably brush up on his briefing books (or pay attention to his own speeches) now that his boss disagrees.

Don't get me wrong. I think that the GOP should take a page from Chicago's book and stop sequestering Palin from the press and the public as if she were a show pony instead of a potential vice president. And I hate that "gaffes"--often little more than trivialities--tend to dominate the political conversation in this country. But Biden's latest spree is more than an irrelevant testament to his uncontrollable verbosity. It's actually making Obama's message on substantive matters like taxes, energy, AIG and McCain more difficult to hear. In an election, that hurts the candidate more than anyone else. But what happens if Obama and Biden are elected? Having a vice president who's eager to hold forth on any subject--even when what he's saying bears no relation to administration policy--could get pretty complicated. Distracting a campaign is one thing. Distracting a president, a political party and, by extension, the country? Awkward doesn't quite cover it.

In the primaries, the senator showed an admirable sense of self-conscious restraint. Asked during the first Democratic debate whether he'd have the "discipline" he'd "need on the world stage," Biden delivered the perfect answer: "Yes." Nothing more, nothing less.

Obama might want to remind him of that exchange the next time they talk.

I saw that, Lou. I wish Biden would just shut up sometimes. Maybe the Republicans are on to something, what with having a seemingly mute VP candidate.

He's been about what I expected. He hasn't changed any over the years.