I've seen many polls both before and after the convention in Pennsylvania, and despite the typical week to week vascillations, Obama generally comes out with a 46-44 margin.

Our local paper did a comprehensive breakdown of the state with polling, and while the Democrats usually win big in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and the Northeast, the midstate and upper tiers generally go Republican.

The Northeast part of the state (where I was born) gets a lot of attention in recent presidential elections. It's no coincidence that Scranton was the first stop for both Kerry and Bush after their respective conventions in 2004. There was also a calculated reason why Palin specifically mentiioned Scranton in her convention speech. The area is unusual in that it is heavily Democratic while being staunchly pro life. Also, Joe Biden is from the area and has great appeal among blue collar voters, the group that essentially won the primary for Hillary. Unfortunately for Obama, he came off as an elitist during the primary.

While McCain won't carry NE PA, his success in the state would depend, in part, upon how deeply he can penetrate the Democratic base in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton.

At this point I think Obama will win PA.