You can watch the entire unedited version on the NBC website now:

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/vp-debate-open-palin-biden/727421/

Obama widens lead in national CNN poll

By Paul Steinhauser
CNN Deputy Political Director

NASHVILLE, Tennessee (CNN) -- A new national poll suggests Barack Obama is widening his lead over John McCain in the race for the White House.

Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain by 8 points, according to CNN's latest poll.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Monday afternoon suggests that the country's financial crisis, record low approval ratings for President Bush and a drop in the public's perception of McCain's running mate could be contributing to Obama's gains.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 45 percent supporting McCain.

That 8-point lead is double the 4-point lead Obama held in the last CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, taken in mid-September.

President George Bush may be part of the reason why Obama's making gains. Only 24 percent of those polled approve of Bush's job as president, an all-time low for a CNN survey. See the latest polling

"Bush has now tied Richard Nixon's worst rating ever, taken in a poll just before he resigned in 1975, and is only 2 points higher than the worst presidential approval rating in history, Harry Truman's 22 percent mark in February 1952," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

And that's bad news for McCain, because the poll suggests a growing number of Americans believe the Republican presidential nominee would have the same policies as the current Republican president. Fifty-six percent say McCain's policies would be the same as Bush, up from 50 percent a month ago.

The financial crisis also appears to be contributing to Obama's increased lead in the poll. Sixty-eight percent are confident in the Democratic presidential nominee's ability to handle the financial crisis, 18 points ahead of McCain, and 42 points ahead of President Bush.

More Americans appear to have an unfavorable view of Gov. Sarah Palin, and that may also be helping Obama in the fight for the presidency. Forty percent now have an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 27 percent a month ago and from 21 percent in late August, when McCain surprised many people by picking the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.

"A majority of Americans now believe that Sarah Palin would be unqualified to serve as president if it became necessary, and her unfavorable rating has doubled," Holland said.

Another hurdle for the Arizona senator is expectations. Six in 10 questioned in the poll predict that Obama will win the November election.

The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, just after President Bush signed the $700 billion federal bailout into law. By a 53 percent to 46 percent margin, Americans oppose the bill.

"One in five might have supported a different bill, but one in three believe that the government should have stayed out of the crisis completely and let the markets attempt to recover on their own. A majority think that the bailout package will not prevent the economy from going into a deep and prolonged recession -- but they turn thumbs-down to another bailout package if this one does not work. Only one in five would support more assistance beyond Friday's $700 billion package," Holland said.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted by telephone on October 3-5. The survey questioned 1,006 people. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

I bet those annoying Obama campaigners that I told to "Stop buzzing my goddamned door!" a few months ago thought I was a Republican.

Well dude, white guy, Wal Mart, Indiana, what'd you expect?

Does anyone even care about the debate tomorrow? I'll probably watch if I'm home, but it will probably mean little.

I'd call you an old fart New Yawker but I figure you're about ready to move to Florida and start eating dinner at 4pm.



I'll have it on but I don't know how much it will change anything.

Let's not let hubris take over. There's plenty of time left for campaigning and for any number of variables to affect the election.

Morty Seinfeld: "They give you a tenderloin, a salad and a baked potato, for
four-ninety-five. You know what that cost you after six."

I agree.

That said, I think Obama campaign played the Keating card well today, by pushing it out the same day as the Ayers shit, they've blunted the media framing.

Instead of MSNBC asking if Obama "Pals around with terrorists," the news is that both campaigns are slinging mud at each other, which both stories are, since McCain was technically cleared of any wrong-doing in the Keating affair along with John Glenn, though both got a verbal slap on the wrist.

I plan on watching it. McCain needs to kick ass tomorrow night. Like I said before now is the time for him to pull out all the stops.

At this rate, those debates are his last hope, and as fivethirtyeight.com explored recently, debates don't make as gigantic movement in the polls as we tend to think that they do.

Interestingly, 538 has Obama more likely to win Louisiana than McCain is to win the general election. Obama has a better shot in Montana than McCain does in Virginia, and a better shot in North Dakota than McCain has in Colorado.

Ouch.

"Keating Economics" #2 Search on Google

Obama apparently had today's Charles Keating attack in the can, ready to deploy against an attempt to revive Bill Ayers, and it seems to be working.

A glance at Google Trends finds "keating economics" the second-most-popular search term right now. Numbers 8, 11, 12, and 21 are terms like "keating five" and "charles keating."

Bill Ayers shows up at 36, just after "mccain keating."

The first term is Neel Kashkari, newly tapped to head the bailout. Voter registration terms also rank high.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Keating_on_their_minds.html?showall

Some new Fox News/Rasmussen numbers out:

The "Keating Economics" videos are among the most viewed for the day on YouTube also. McCain might regret his new game plan. Unlike 2004 when Kerry fought back too late, Obama isn't taking any shit.

"We don't throw the first punch, but we'll throw the last." - Barack Obama, 10/06/08

The definitive quote for how Obama has run his campaign?

From The Washington Monthly:

October 5, 2008

'TURN THE PAGE'.... Explaining the campaign's intention to shift from policy to personal attacks, Greg Strimple, one of John McCain's top advisers, told the Washingtn Post that the campaign is "looking forward to turning a page on this financial crisis." It's a quote Strimple probably wishes now he hadn't made.

The Obama campaign's Dan Pfeiffer told the Politico yesterday that McCain's "desire to avoid discussing the economy is something we will remind voters of everyday for the next month."

And according to the prepared text of a speech Obama is scheduled to deliver today in Asheville, North Carolina, the senator is taking full advantage of the opportunity.

"[O]n Friday, we learned that we'd lost another 159,000 American jobs in September. It was the ninth straight month of job losses -- more than three quarters of a million this year, including 24,000 here in North Carolina. And it came just as we finished a week in which our financial markets teetered on the brink of disaster.

"Yet instead of addressing these crises, Senator McCain's campaign has announced that they plan to turn the page on the discussion about our economy and spend the final weeks of this campaign launching Swiftboat-style attacks on me.

"Think about that for a second. 'Turn the page' on the economy? We're facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and John McCain wants us to 'turn the page?' Well, I know the policies he's supported these past eight years and wants to continue are pretty hard to defend. I can understand why Senator McCain would want to 'turn the page' and ignore this economy.

"But I also know this: You're trying to pay your bills every week and stay above the water -- you can't ignore it. You're worrying about whether your job will be there a month from now -- you can't ignore it. You're worrying about whether you can pay your mortgage and stay in your house -- you can't turn the page. [...]

"Senator McCain and his operatives are gambling that he can distract you with smears rather than talk to you about substance. They'd rather try to tear our campaign down than lift this country up. It's what you do when you're out of touch, out of ideas, and running out of time."

The Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for the rest of the week very effectively, and with some ill-advised quotes, the McCain campaign is helping them. The next time McCain and his surrogates bring up Ayers (or Rezko, or Wright), the immediate and obvious question will be, "Why are you trying to stop talking about the economy?"

Sarah Palin's 1984 Alaskan Beauty Pageant Video

What's up with that awful Jazz music?

This is the kind of stuff that needs to be out there; those 'Independents' who seem to be leaning toward Obama need to have their eyes opened.

*****************************************

Do Facts Matter?
Thomas Sowell
Friday, October 03, 2008

Abraham Lincoln said, "You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you can't fool all the people all the time."

Unfortunately, the future of this country, as well as the fate of the Western world, depends on how many people can be fooled on Election Day...

Right now, the polls indicate that a whole lot of the people are being fooled a whole lot of the time.

The current financial bailout crisis has propelled Barack Obama back into a substantial lead over John McCain - which is astonishing in view of which manand which partyhas had the most to do with bringing on this crisis.

It raises the question: Do facts matter? Or is Obama's rhetoric and the media's spin enough to make facts irrelevant?

Fact: It was liberal Democrats, led by Sen. Christopher Dodd & Congressman Barney Frank, who for years - including the present year - denied that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taking big risks that could lead to a financial crisis.

It was Sen. Dodd, Rep. Frank and other lib Dems who for years refused requests from the Bush administration to set up an agency to regulate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

It was lib Dems, again led by Dodd & Frank, who for years pushed for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to go even further in promoting subprime mortgage loans, which are at the heart of today's financial crisis.

Alan Greenspan warned them four years ago. So did the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to the President. So did Bush's Secretary of the Treasury, five years ago.

Yet, today, what are we hearing? That it was the Bush administration "right-wing ideology" of "de-regulation" that set the stage for the financial crisis. Do facts matter?

We also hear that it is the free market that is to blame. But the facts show that it was the government that pressured financial institutions in general to lend to subprime borrowers, with such things as the Community Reinvestment Act and, later, threats of legal action by then Attorney General Janet Reno if the feds did not like the statistics on who was getting loans and who wasn't.

Is that the free market? Or do facts not matter?

Then there is the question of being against the "greed" of CEOs and for "the people." Franklin Raines made $90 million while he was head of Fannie Mae and mismanaging that institution into crisis.

Who in Congress defended Franklin Raines? Liberal Democrats, including Maxine Waters and the Congressional Black Caucus, at least one of whom referred to the "lynching" of Raines, as if it was racist to hold him to the same standard as white CEOs.

Even after he was deposed as head of Fannie Mae, Franklin Raines was consulted this year by the Obama campaign for his advice on housing!

The Washington Post criticized the McCain campaign for calling Raines an adviser to Obama, even though that fact was reported in the Washington Post itself on July 16th. The technicality and the spin here is that Raines is not officially listed as an adviser. But someone who advises is an adviser, whether or not his name appears on a letterhead.

The tie between Barack Obama and Franklin Raines is not all one-way. Obama has been the second-largest recipient of Fannie Mae's financial contributions, right after Sen. Christopher Dodd.

But ties between Obama and Raines? Not if you read the mainstream media.

Facts don't matter much politically if they are not reported.

The media alone are not alone in keeping the facts from the public. Republicans, for reasons unknown, don't seem to know what it is to counter-attack. They deserve to lose.

But the country does not deserve to be put in the hands of a glib and cocky know-it-all, who has accomplished absolutely nothing beyond the advancement of his own career with rhetoric, and who has for years allied himself with a succession of people who have openly expressed their hatred of America.

Apple, correct me if I'm wrong but Isn't that Raines one of Obama's campaign advisors.

With all these polls that are being posted everyday, I would like to know what the ratio is. How many Dems/Rep are being polled. Is there more Dems than Reps or visa versa?

The Community Reinvestment Act was passed in 1977. It is a bit much in my opinion to blame a crisis in 2008 on that legislation.

I doubt that Sowell even believes that. Unfortunately a great many conservatives have an ideological blind spot when it comes to deregulation or the free market. Progressives and liberals have similar blind spots of course. Desperation to not be blamed for something which is a result of their ideology makes people say funny things.

However the facts are that most subprime loans were made by banks or brokers that were not subject to the CRA. Most loans made under the CRA were not subprime and were not securitized or sold.

In addition over the past eight years the Bush Administration has been weakening, not strengthening the CRA.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac do not originate loans. The private marketplace does that. The private marketplace then chopped these risky loans up, labeled them as AAA grade investments and sold them off. The repeal of Glass-Steagall under Clinton and the removal of bank capitalization and deposit requirements under Bush added more risk to the marketplace. Both of these things were demanded by conservatives.

In short the bankers and financial institutions demanded and received increasing autonomy from regulation, along with low interest rates from the Fed. Now that the entire world is on the brink of a financial meltdown and credit freeze some of the same cheerleaders for deregulation STILL can't admit that they were wrong.

Incredible.
Sowell is something else.

Below are some links which explain much of what really happened. The column by the conservative economist Ben Stein is particularly good. The rage just jumps off the page.

http://www.theledger.com/article/2008092...an__x2019_t_Win

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122282690823092989.html?mod=rss_The_Tilting_Yard

http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/09/community_reinv.html

http://www.alternet.org/workplace/101127...s_/?page=entire

Yes, please. Get more stuff out there from Thomas Sowell. Especially the stuff where he compares Obama to Adolf Hitler.
That's sure to do wonders for McCain.

Apple, you need to realize that until Jany, 2007 Republicans had been in control of the Cingress since 1994. They were in a position to impose whatever regulations they chose to impose. Sincd january 2001 through December 2006, Republicans were in control of the Congress and the White House. There has been plenty opportunity for Republicans to take steps to regulate all federal agencies.

McCain's brother says N. Va. 'Communist country'

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential candidate John McCain's brother made an apparent joke at a campaign rally this weekend that might not play well in parts of newly competitive Virginia.

Joe McCain, speaking at an event in support of his brother, called two Democratic-leaning areas in Northern Virginia "communist country," according to a report on The Washington Post's Web site.

"I've lived here for at least 10 years and before that about every third duty I was in either Arlington or Alexandria, up in communist country," Joe McCain, a Navy veteran, said at an event in Loudoun County, Va.

Joe McCain then apologized, but the remark drew laughter at the event, according to the report.

Virginia has long been a Republican stronghold in presidential elections, but Democrat Barack Obama is running even or ahead of McCain in recent state polls. Obama is being helped by fast-growing communities in the Washington, D.C., suburbs of Northern Virginia, which tend to vote more Democratic than other parts of the state.

One of those areas is Arlington, Va., where John McCain owns a condominium.

"This was Joe McCain's unsuccessful attempt at humor," said McCain campaign spokeswoman Gail Gitcho. "John McCain and Sarah Palin are committed to winning the support of voters in Northern Virginia and understand the region's importance to victory statewide."

Yes, because anyone voting Democrat is obviously a commie.

So yeah, fuck you American people who voted for FDR 4 times you commies!

Sen. Hagel's(R) wife to back Obama

RICHMOND, Va. - The wife of Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel plans to endorse Democrat Barack Obama.

Lilibet Hagel has scheduled a 10 a.m. news conference in Alexandria, Va., on Tuesday with Susan Eisenhower, the daughter of Republican President Eisenhower.

Hagel, R-Neb., has made no endorsement. Lilibet Hagel said in an Associated Press interview that her decision was independent of her husband. She said she didn't know whether he would make an endorsement or whom he would support.

"You'd have to ask him," Lilibet Hagel said.

She said it will be her first endorsement of a Democrat and that perilous world conditions were a factor.

"The fact is we're in two wars, two of the longest we've ever been in. We've run up a third of our nation's debt in just the past eight years. We're in the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression," she said.

The Hagels know John and Cindy McCain, and she said her endorsement was not meant to slam them.

"This isn't anti-McCain. This is pro-Obama. I'm just convinced he's the right person," she said.

The Hagels vote in Nebraska, but they have lived in Washington's Virginia suburbs since Hagel won his first Senate term in 1996.

A moderate Republican and veteran wounded in combat in the Vietnam War, Hagel has been a fierce and credible critic of the Bush administration's Iraq policies. During the summer, he accompanied Obama and Democratic Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island to Iraq and Afghanistan. He was briefly the object of speculation as a possible surprise Obama running mate selection.

Hagel has decided not to seek a third Senate term.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081007/ap_on_el_pr/obama_lilibet_hagel_1;_ylt=AtTemkhF3Y5Jvrxr17H2Ciph24cA

WCU/NPR Poll: Obama Ahead By Ten In Pennsylvania

Political Wire got an advance look at a new West Chester University/NPR poll in Pennsylvania that shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 52% to 42%, in the key battleground state.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/06/wcunpr_poll_obama_ahead_by_ten_in_pennsylvania.html

McCain forced to defend N.C.
By: Carrie Budoff Brown and Richard T. Cullen
October 6, 2008 08:23 PM EST

ASHEVILLE, N.C.—For the third weekend in a row, Barack Obama campaigned in North Carolina as part of the most vigorous Democratic effort since at least 1992 to win this reliably Republican state.

At a surprise stop Saturday night at a North Carolina Democratic Party dinner and again a rally here Sunday in the state’s conservative western edge, Obama sounded a confident note:

“Despite the pundits, despite the prognosticators, despite the cynicism,” Obama said at the dinner, “we are right here in the hunt in North Carolina. We can win at the top of the ballot in North Carolina. And we win at the bottom of the ballot in North Carolina. We can win in the eastern part of the state and in the western part. We can elect a new Democratic governor here in North Carolina and we can elect a new U.S. senator here in North Carolina.”

To the dismay of North Carolina Republicans, Obama may not be overstating matters.

Aides to John McCain consider North Carolina a must-win state and expressed optimism last week about their chances here, but there are signs of concern: Vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin this week will make the Republican ticket’s first visit to the state since June, and the first public appearance since a McCain speech at Wake Forest University during the primaries in May.

“They’re having to defend their turf—Republicans—in a way that they haven’t had to since 1992,” said Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “And so, even if Obama doesn’t win the electoral votes here, McCain can’t take the state for granted.”

The turmoil on Wall Street and the economic downturn have helped turn North Carolina into more fertile ground for Obama, who took his first lead over John McCain in the Real Clear Politics average of state polls a week ago. As a national leader in the banking industry, the state suffered more bad news last week as it faces the loss of thousands of high-paying bank jobs—and a blow to its state pride—when Charlotte-based Wachovia Corp. put itself up for sale last week.

Similar to its flood-the-zone strategy in Virginia, which is experiencing its first competitive presidential race in decades, the Obama campaign has been aggressive in its pursuit of North Carolina.

Obama chose this city in the Blue Ridge Mountains to prepare for Tuesday’s presidential debate with the state's 15 electoral votes in mind. It’s his fifth visit since clinching the Democratic nomination in June, while vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden has made two stops and Michelle Obama traveled to Charlotte and Greensboro last month, and returns again Tuesday.

Obama is also dominating the airwaves, running about three TV ads for every one from McCain, according to North Carolina political experts.

The prospect of North Carolina as a battleground has put the McCain campaign in a bind, stirring a debate on how much time and resources it should devote to a state that has voted for Republican presidential nominees since 1976.

“Obama has basically gotten a free ride,” said a North Carolina Republican strategist who asked to remain anonymous so that he could talk candidly about the race. “He is killing McCain on the air, even running two-minute ads and new radio ads. Meanwhile, most of what we have seen from McCain has come from national cable buys. That is not a recipe for success in a state that no one thought we’d be talking about this late.”

McCain has not visited the state since June, when he met privately with evangelists Billy and Franklin Graham. There are no immediate plans for McCain to return to North Carolina, according to Brent Woodcox, a spokesman for the state Republican Party.

"Certainly we would love to see the senator in the state," he said. "But with 30 days left, the campagn has to make the decision on where to go."

Palin’s trip Tuesday to East Carolina University in Greenville for a rally shows the campaign, which has also increased its ad buys in recent weeks, is beginning to make a stronger push in the unexpectedly competitive state.

McCain advisers said they expect North Carolina, similar to other GOP states where Obama is competitive, will go with the Republican nominee at the end of the day because the Democrat is out of step with voters.

“One of the strategic decisions our campaign has made is to let Mr. Obama spend his resources in there to the point that we got closer to the election,” McCain senior advisor Greg Strimple said. “These are states with conservative voting constituencies where you have the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate running on the top of the ticket. … I believe he is going to have a hard time winning votes and I think it will be money he has spent in vain.”

Obama chief strategist David Axelrod countered, “I am happy to have them wallow in their self confidence.”

Woodcox acknowledges that the race is competitive, but said that the GOP retains the edge because it knows how to win statewide races there.

“The events nationally have an effect on how the race plays in North Carolina and there has been a lot of up and down since the convention, gaining momentum and losing,” Woodcox said. “We may still see two or three up-and-down, game-changing moments. I still think we can feel confident because of our past experiences.”

But the Obama campaign, which political observers say is waging the most organized Democratic bid here since Bill Clinton’s 1992 effort—when he fell just 20,000 votes short of victory, out of two-and-a-half-million cast — is drawing its confidence from a mix of factors.

Obama already built a statewide political network during the North Carolina Democratic primary, which he won by 14 percentage points despite a serious effort from Hillary Rodham Clinton.

North Carolina voter rolls gained more than 600,000 new registrants this year, with almost half choosing the Democratic Party and one third registered as independent. Of the state’s 6 million voters, 45 percent are Democratic, 32 percent are Republican and 22 percent are independent.

A surge in population over the last 20 years in the metropolitan areas has reshaped the electorate, as well.

“They don’t necessarily fit the old pattern, or at least the old pattern isn’t imbedded in their head,” Guillory said. “And so there are a lot of persuadable voters out there, and that’s why this state has been more competitive. It isn’t the old South, or the more rural part of the state that has become more competitive. It’s these surging metropolitan areas that make this state more competitive.”

As the momentum has shifted in Obama’s direction over the last two weeks, state political experts are just beginning to consider the real possibility of North Carolina as decisive on Election Day.

“Someone asked me the other day, ‘Do you really think at the end of the day that North Carolina voters will vote for an African American?’ I’ve got to tell you, I think the worse the economy gets, the less race matters,” said Morgan Jackson, a North Carolina Democratic political consultant. “The economy changes the dynamics so much that people don’t care what race, or creed, or gender you are. If the economy is in such decay, they’re going to want somebody who can make a change.”

Haven't had a whole lotta time to browse the news Monday, but I did see a short clip from a McCain rally in which a McCain supporter called Obama a terrorist. You can see McCain appeared to look surprised, but said nothing.

Anyway, I do plan to watch the debate tonight. I am hoping that(and expect) O keeps to the economy and the issues. Let McCain ramble and attack. I just don't think that's what people want. I know don't.

Yet, right now, at this moment, that is all McCain has. I hear even the McCain camp admitted that much, saying if the talk about the economy they'll lose. So, let them imply that O is a terrorist or, God forbid, actually utter his middle name "Hussein" That should anger everyone.

Then again, it's so easy to get hopeful for the Dems, and I am hopeful, BUT I want to be cauioius and not assume anything. If we have learned anything it's that "shit happens" and nothing is in the bag yet.....although damn, it's looking good. Can't wait til it's over though.


TIS

It was liberal democrats that caused the economic crisis?? Really?? When, as olivant pointed out, the Republicans have had control for years? Really??

Apple, you must be so ridiculously blinded by partisanship, racial hatred, I don't know what, that I can't imagine why you would continue to post the things that you do. With electric and heat shut-off in NY up 17% because people can't afford to pay their bills, with the housing market in shambles, with the NYSE in shambles, with no credit available to people who need it, with children having to transfer out of private colleges because the credit crunch has dried up the student loan market, with a federal deficit of unfathomable proportions, while we conduct a war based on lies which cost trillions of dollars, and, more importantly, thousands of lives, how can you possibly still try to point the finger of blame on anyone else besides the party that has had the reins of power for YEARS. The Republicans had the majority and the White House and could have kept things under control, no matter what they felt "the lib dems" supported.

It's utter nonsense.