Current Sportsbook Odds:

Obama -450
McCain +275

I wish Plaw were here to explain it to me yet again, but basically: Obama is the favorite. To win $100 on the bet for Obama, you'd risk $450. A $100 bet on McCain (the underdog) would get you $275 profit if he were to win.

Please don't ask me to explain that. But you can read about it here and maybe understand it better than I do.

You can monitor Sportsbook's odds here, under Hot Events | Exotics: Presidential Odds

You explained it pretty good. It's exactly what you said. If you want to win $100 and bet on Obama, you'd have to wager $450. If you want to bet on McCain, for every $100 you wager, you'd get back $275.

*sigh*, yes.

Who do Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans give the higher grade to when it comes to veterans issues? The answer may surprise you:

Obama: B
McCain: D

Full congressional report card:
http://veteranreportcard.org/

October 8, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Over McCain Expands to 11

52% share of the vote is Obama’s highest to date


PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama with a 52% to 41% lead over John McCain.


These results, based on Oct. 5-7 polling, are the best for Obama during the campaign, both in terms of his share of the vote and the size of his lead over McCain. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Nearly all interviews in today's report were conducted before Tuesday night's town hall style debate in Nashville. Any movement in voter preferences as a result of this debate will be apparent in coming days.

Voter preferences seem to have stabilized for the moment, as Obama has held a double-digit lead over McCain in each of the last three individual nights of polling.

Concern about the economy seems to be playing to Obama's advantage; he overtook McCain when the financial crisis worsened in the middle of September, and his strong showing today coincides with the worst rating of the economy this year (59% of Americans describe current economic conditions as "poor"). -- Jeff Jones

Keep in mind Lou that Gallup's daily tracking poll reflects preferences of registered voters and not likely voters. So, the 11 point margin may be exaggerated.

True. It's really just a 'guide' to where the candidates stand among voters. With all signs pointing to record voter registrations by the Obama campaign, the 11 points might be underestimated. ...But 'race' is still the great unknown.

Odds are easy (or maybe it's because I grew up in illegal gambling dens?) and you have it down.

But I don't know anyone who would risk $475 for $100 except for gambling addicts who like to lose.



About race: I think the people voting for Obama because he is half black will probably come close to canceling out the ones who don't vote for him because he is half black. Maybe because it is the first time a partially black person has a shot some people won't vote for him, but after that they might feel more comfortable with it. Personally, I don't care what color you are unless you're purple. I don't vote for purple people.

Palin set to drop puck at Philadelphia NHL game


PHILADELPHIA (AP)—Sarah Palin’s next faceoff will come at center ice at an NHL arena, not at a debate.

The GOP vice presidential nominee will drop the ceremonial first puck when the Philadelphia Flyers open the regular season against the New York Rangers on Saturday. Palin, the Alaska governor and self-described “hockey mom,” will join the winner of a team promotion for the “Ultimate Hockey Mom” to drop the puck.

Last month, Palin visited a Philadelphia bar with Flyers owner Ed Snider, who has donated money to Republican presidential nominee John McCain’s campaign.

“Because of the tremendous amount of publicity she has brought to our sport, we invited the most popular hockey mom in North America to our home opener to help us get our season started,” Snider said in a team statement Wednesday. “We are very excited she has accepted our offer and we are very proud of the publicity she is generating for hockey moms and the sport of hockey.”

The team will award all hockey moms entered into the contest with a free “puck-er peach” lipstick and four tickets to a hockey game of the Flyers’ minor league affiliate, the Philadelphia Phantoms. The winner will appear on the ice with Palin for opening faceoff.

Not pit bull peach??

I never understood this kind of betting. I'd love to give it a shot, not if I don't know what the hell I'm doing. Then again, I should think twice on even "fun" betting. Look how cappy I'm doing on the dead pool.


TIS

2008 Chemistry Nobelist Endorses Obama

One of the first things Martin Chalfie wanted to do after learning that he won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry is endorse Barack Obama for President of the United States. That brings the total number of Nobel Prize winners in science endorsing Obama to 63.

Chalfie won the prize for his early work on using green fluorescent protein to mark cells. This is by far the largest number of Nobelists to ever endorse a candidate for President. This is by far the largest number of Nobelists to ever endorse a candidate for President.

http://sefora.org/2008/10/08/2008-ch...-number-to-63/

Not as good as the Train Allegory, but eh....

Veterans group releases new anti-McCain TV ad:

McCain camp hits hard tying Obama to Ayers

(CNN) -- With just 26 days left until the election, Sen. John McCain's campaign is staying true to its pledge to ratchet up the attacks on Sen. Barack Obama's judgment and character.

The McCain campaign says Barack Obama is "too risky for America," in its new Web ad.

The McCain campaign calls Obama "too risky for America" in a new Web ad that focuses on his political relationship with Bill Ayers, a founding member of the radical Weather Underground.

"Barack Obama and domestic terrorist Bill Ayers. Friends. They've worked together for years. But Obama tries to hide it," the announcer says in the 90-second ad.

"But Obama's friendship with terrorist Ayers isn't the issue. The issue is Barack Obama's judgment and candor," the announcer says.

Weather Underground was involved in bombings in the early 1970s, including attacks on the Pentagon and the Capitol. Obama was a young child at the time of the bombings.

Obama and Ayers, now a university professor, met in 1995, when both worked with a nonprofit group trying to raise funds for a school improvement project and a charitable foundation. CNN's review of project records found nothing to suggest anything inappropriate in the volunteer projects in which the two men were involved. Fact check: How close are Obama and Ayers?

Quoted in The New York Times, Obama called Ayers "somebody who engaged in detestable acts 40 years ago, when I was 8."

Michelle Obama brushed off the latest round of attacks in an interview with CNN's Larry King on Wednesday.

"I don't know anyone in Chicago who's heavily involved in education policy who doesn't know Bill Ayers. But, again, I go back to the point that the American people aren't asking these questions," she said.

"The thing that I just encourage people is to judge Barack and judge all of these candidates based on what they do, their actions, their character, what they do in their lives, rather than what somebody did when they were 8 or 6 years old," she said.

The McCain campaign started pushing hard on the Ayers connection this past weekend when Gov. Sarah Palin accused Obama of "palling around with terrorists who would target their own country."

The Obama campaign retaliated on Monday with a 13-minute documentary Web video detailing the Arizona senator's involvement in the Keating Five scandal in the 1980s.

Cindy McCain, McCain's wife, lashed out at Obama earlier this week, telling a Tennessee newspaper that the Illinois senator has waged the "dirtiest campaign in American history."

Obama's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden put the blame on the McCain campaign Wednesday, saying the attacks on Obama are "beyond disappointing."

"Those attacks don't hurt Barack Obama or me. They hurt you," Biden told a crowd in Tampa, Florida.

"Every single false charge and baseless accusation is an attempt to get you to stop paying attention to what's going on in this country. Beyond the attacks, what is John McCain really offering?"

Biden said McCain's campaign has become "erratic" and is "relying on political stunts instead of offering real solutions."

Obama said Wednesday, "I can take four more weeks of John McCain's attacks, but America can't take four more years of John McCain's Bush policies."

Obama on Thursday is campaigning in Ohio, where he will focus on jobs and the economy. The Democratic presidential candidate is expected to continue to question McCain's suggestion that the government could buy up bad mortgages. Read more on McCain's proposal

Biden is in Missouri, where he will discuss the choice in the election on the economy.

McCain and Palin are taking their campaign to Wisconsin for a town hall meeting with voters.

Robert Gibbs turns the table on Sean Hannity.

Vote for McCain. Thanks.

Does someone have a transcript on the Hannity/Gibbs exchange?

Remember the guy McCain said may not have heard of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac during the debate??


How did I feel about Sen. McCain stating "You probably never heard of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac before this."

Well Senator, I actually did. I like to think of myself as a fairly intelligent person. I have a bachelor degree in Political Science from Tennessee State, so I try to keep myself up to date with current affairs. I have a Master degree in Legal Studies from Southern Illinois University, a few years in law school, and I am currently pursuing a Master in Public Administration from the University of Memphis.

In defense of the Senator from Arizona I would say he is an older guy, and may have made an underestimation of my age. Honest mistake. However, it could be because I am a young African-American male. Whatever the case may be it was somewhat condescending regardless of my age to make an assumption regarding whether I was knowledgeable about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/09/1523335.aspx

And why is the Straight Talk Express-turned-Race Talk Express so popular over there?

Gibbs did exactly the perfect counter to a blusterface like Hannity, in taking his argumentation's logical paradigm and making him look like a fool.

I mean, if that same board that had Ayers and Obama also included the wife of a McCain campaign donor, and an Ambassador of the Reagan administration, using Hannity and the extreme right's "Guilt by Association" claim...

So basically, they're saying that President Ronald Reagan was a pal of terrorists.

I SO dare Freddie C. and Mignon and Appleonya and Double J to try their best to argue out of this one.

Excellent catch, Ronnie. I actually missed that. Hannity is an unconscionable boob.

Exclusive: Obama buys half-hour of network primetime

Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of airtime on CBS and NBC, sources confirm.

The Obama campaign will air a primetime special on Wednesday, Oct. 29, at 8 p.m. -- less than a week before the general election.

The direct purchase of such a large block of national airtime right before an election used to be more commonplace before campaigns began to focus their end game strategies exclusively on battleground states. Such a move is not without precedent in modern presidential politics, however -- Ross Perot did a similar purchase in 1992.

The special is a smart move for the Obama campaign, said Larry Sabato, a political analyst and director of the Center of Politics at the University of Virginia.

"Obama's theme is not just change but unity, so he's appealing to the whole nation rather than a handful of toss-up states," Sabato said. "He wants to win the popular vote by a good margin, which will enable him to govern."

And he's got the cash for it, said Sabato.

"This is another indication, if there needs to be any more, that Barack Obama's got more money than [available] television time to buy," said Evan Tracey, COO of the Campaign Media Analysis Group in Arlington, Va.

Whether the McCain campaign will do the same remains to be seen, although there's one big thing moving against it: Money. Unlike Obama, who rejected public financing of the presidential campaign, McCain is accepting it. That means that McCain is limited in the amount of money that it can spend and raise, and in its TV buying has been limited mostly to ads in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Florida.

"There will be no second guessing the Obama campaign on decisions involving resources," Tracey said. "He's not doing this and pulling down [ad] buys in Florida. This is not an either/or decision. They've got 25 days and unlimited amounts of money."

Neither Sabato nor Tracey could say whether the McCain campaign could buy its own time on the networks, even if they wanted to, because of the cost involved. The networks are obligated to offer the similar time and the same price to McCain. After Obama bought about $4 million of ads in the Summer Olympics telecasts including national time, McCain bought about $5 million worth in the Olympics. But now, with money and time being tight, it might be more difficult with making hard choices. The McCain camp has already pulled its ads from Michigan, once considered a key battleground state.

"This is where Obama being off public financing really boxes in McCain," Tracey said. "I don't think this is a move that the McCain campaign would be able to match."

Beyond Perot's 30-minute campaign ads in the last month of the 1992 presidential campaign, you have to reach back even further for similar instances. Sabato said that national broadcasts were not uncommon in the 1960s and early 1970s, when TV time wasn't as expensive and the current campaign financing limits weren't in place. It's also a common strategy for candidates for statewide office to patch together stations on a statewide telecast.

CBS and NBC spokespersons declined comment. Sources say the Obama camp also talked to Fox, but the network may not be able to accommodate the campaign as the time period may conflict with a potential Game 6 of the World Series.

The buy will push CBS comedy "The New Adventures of Old Christine" to 8:30 p.m. and pre-empt "Gary Unmarried." NBC typically airs the hour-long "Knight Rider" in the slot, and will likely throw in a comedy repeat at 8:30 p.m. The buy is being placed by Washington-based ad firm GMMB. Obama's ad will air on the night before the start of November sweep.

This year has seen the first time in many years that presidential campaigns have bought national broadcast TV advertisements. In the past 12 years, much of the billions of dollars in political advertising spent has gone to local TV stations in battleground states. While some money has gone to national cable channels, the thinking has always been that it would be more prudent to target battleground states' voters instead of addressing the entire nation, including states that reliably vote for one party or another.

The first instance was in August, when Obama spent $5 million and McCain spent $6 million, to advertise in NBC's coverage of the Summer Olympics from Beijing. The networks' evening newscasts have also seen campaign ads for the first time in years. Before that, the last nationally broadcast campaign ad ran in the 1996 campaign.

The Obama campaign earlier this year opted out of the public financing system, which meant that it was free to raise and spend as much as it could. It has, in states like Michigan, outspent the publicly financed McCain campaign by a margin of at least 3-to-1.

It's not unprecedented for a candidate to buy longform broadcast network time, though it hasn't happened in a while. In October 1992, Perot drew audiences of 16.5 million and 10.5 million for 30-minute lectures/campaign ad aimed at voters. But in Perot's second run in 1996, the candidate was rebuffed by the Big Four networks in an attempt to sell airtime. The FCC backed the networks in denying Perot airtime, saying that they acted legally in refusing.

Earlier this year, the Hillary Clinton campaign bought time on the Hallmark Channel, a nearly fully distributed cable channel, for a town-hall meeting before Super Tuesday.

Obama has run many 30-second spots across the country. One ad was considered particularly effective, a two-minute spot where Obama directly faced the camera and spoke to viewers about their economic hardships.

While broadcast networks in the past have given presidential candidates free time for campaign statements in the final days before the election, those were done during news programs -- outside the expensive primetime hours.

From the start, Obama has been more focused on primetime than any other presidential candidate. Defying conventional wisdom to have political ads clustered around local news, during the primary season the Obama campaign poured 40% of its TV cash in primetime, compared with about 18% for Clinton.

http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/10/obama-primetime.html

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html

Obama up 8 in West Virginia? I find it hard to believe, but that's what a new poll shows:



West Virginia

Interview dates: October 4-8, 2008

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?

Obama 50%
McCain 42%

Just read that 6 minutes ago, and I am shocked.

And since Likely Voters matter more in polling than Registered Voters....McCain is in deep dodo. Look at this chart, spelling out how Obama has (apparently) closed the gap in the very red Bush state of West Virginia from 2000 and 2004:

link

So from 15 points in April, McCain is just ONE point ahead.

I think Obama will not suffer from as much of a Bradley effect as Bradley did..

The economy is so bad people who might not have voted for him are considering it.

That being said though there are quite a few people who wouldn't vote for Obama no matter what. Anger and low information is a dangerous combination.

http://africanamericanopinion.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=107

“All of the things they said about Barack Obama in the TV, on the TV, at their rallies, and now on YouTube … John McCain could not bring himself to look Barack Obama in the eye and say the same things to him. In my neighborhood, when you’ve got something to say to a guy, you look him in the eye and you say it to him.” - Joe Biden, at a rally this morning.

That would be a little more powerful if Biden came from a rougher neighborhood.

“You can call me anything, write anything or do anything. I’m yours till death do us part“. - Keating to McCain