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Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Don Sicilia] #514636
10/09/08 02:14 PM
10/09/08 02:14 PM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 17,300
New York
Sicilian Babe Offline
Sicilian Babe  Offline

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Posts: 17,300
New York
Dow down another 100 points right now. I feel like it's never going to stop. I heard a prediction yesterday that "bottom" could be about 7500.


President Emeritus of the Neal Pulcawer Fan Club
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Sicilian Babe] #514637
10/09/08 02:19 PM
10/09/08 02:19 PM
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,952
It's fun to stay in the YMCA
Turi Giuliano Offline
Turi Giuliano  Offline

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It's fun to stay in the YMCA
Originally Posted By: Sicilian Babe
Turi,
I love reading your posts. First of all, you're so knowledgeable. Secondly, I love getting a different perspective of the whole mess.



Hahah, thanks. I worry that I don't make any sense. But I'm such a loser for getting so involved with it all. I haven't worked with mortgages for 15 months (I've since moved to Deceased and now in Business Banking), never had a mortgage or plan to get one for a long time - however I still follow the markets.

One day i'll be boring you about wills, probate and the difference between the US's Trustees verses the UK's Trustees and Executors. wink


So die all who betray Giuliano
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Turi Giuliano] #514638
10/09/08 02:22 PM
10/09/08 02:22 PM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 17,300
New York
Sicilian Babe Offline
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What are mortgage rates in the UK?? Here in the US, you can still get rates in the 6-6.5% range. However, if you have a credit score of less than 700, you can forget about getting any credit.


President Emeritus of the Neal Pulcawer Fan Club
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Don Sicilia] #514639
10/09/08 02:26 PM
10/09/08 02:26 PM
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,952
It's fun to stay in the YMCA
Turi Giuliano Offline
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It's fun to stay in the YMCA
Originally Posted By: Don Sicilia
What I meant by "pegs inflation" is that they target it, which it looks likes they do.

Here in the U.S., besides the rate cut, there's talk that the Fed lend directly to corporations. The fear is that the rate cut will induce borrowing by banks, but instead of passing the new funds to consumers (and each other), they just hoard the money to shore up their own liquidity.


Oh yes and one thing I forgot to mention is that our £50b bail out package (named by the media) means that the Government will effectively become shareholders of the recipient companies. If dividends then become payable, the Government then has first rights over them. This is with the view that eventually the Government will reclaim their money and that no more banks will become nationalised.

Is that similar to how the Fed will invest?


So die all who betray Giuliano
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Turi Giuliano] #514642
10/09/08 02:40 PM
10/09/08 02:40 PM
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,361
Don Sicilia Offline
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Posts: 7,361
Originally Posted By: Turi Giuliano
Oh yes and one thing I forgot to mention is that our £50b bail out package (named by the media) means that the Government will effectively become shareholders of the recipient companies. If dividends then become payable, the Government then has first rights over them. This is with the view that eventually the Government will reclaim their money and that no more banks will become nationalised.

Is that similar to how the Fed will invest?


For banks, I believe it's similar. In fact, I think they cite the UK deal as the model. As for the direct lending to corporations, I haven't seen enough detail to know, but I doubt the US will take an equity stake in non-financial firms.

Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Sicilian Babe] #514643
10/09/08 02:46 PM
10/09/08 02:46 PM
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,952
It's fun to stay in the YMCA
Turi Giuliano Offline
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It's fun to stay in the YMCA
Originally Posted By: Sicilian Babe
What are mortgage rates in the UK?? Here in the US, you can still get rates in the 6-6.5% range. However, if you have a credit score of less than 700, you can forget about getting any credit.


If you shop around and are happy to pay a fee of around £1000 (which in most cases gets added to the mortgage) you may get something like a 5.89%. Two years ago I could have offered a 4.99% with only a £500 fee and the difference on a £150,000 mortgage would approximitely be £90/month.

I'll spare you all with how a 5.89% with £1000 is more expensive than a 6.19 with no fee over 2 years.


So die all who betray Giuliano
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Turi Giuliano] #514645
10/09/08 02:53 PM
10/09/08 02:53 PM
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Posts: 17,300
New York
Sicilian Babe Offline
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New York
Long term v. short term. Long term, it's always better to take the lowest rate, even if there are fees up front. In the US, we have points added to the mortgage that lower the rate. Those points are tax-deductible. If you are financing a home and plan on it being a long-term financing, then pay the fees to get the better rate.

The Wall Street Journal Prime just dropped to 4.5%, down a half a point. If you have an adjustable rate loan that's tied to prime, then you're rate's going down!


President Emeritus of the Neal Pulcawer Fan Club
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Sicilian Babe] #514663
10/09/08 04:37 PM
10/09/08 04:37 PM
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 22,902
New York
SC Offline OP
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Originally Posted By: Sicilian Babe
Dow down another 100 points right now. I feel like it's never going to stop. I heard a prediction yesterday that "bottom" could be about 7500.


It apparently finished 678 points down. The DJ is now at 8,579... next stop 8,000 (and the way things have been going lately that could be less than one week).

I suspect it'll continue to go lower, but not for long. Then there'll be a big buying spree (greed will win out and speculators will step in looking for bargains).


.
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: SC] #514666
10/09/08 04:53 PM
10/09/08 04:53 PM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 6,762
Anytown, USA
goombah Offline
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Anytown, USA
I'm fortunate that I have many investing years ahead of me. This market is like buying stocks on sale. I have purchased some defensive stock plays which yield good dividends at remarkable prices. I feel really bad for the retirees or soon-to-be retiring workforce whose portfolios have been crushed.

The market regained nearly all of its value in December 1987, two months after the big October crash. I suspect it may take longer this time around, but things will bounce back. I saw a headline that GM's stock today plummeted to its lowest value since 1950.

Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: goombah] #514670
10/09/08 05:09 PM
10/09/08 05:09 PM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 15,025
Texas
O
olivant Online content
olivant  Online Content
O

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Posts: 15,025
Texas
It's all cyclical. Remember that the Dow was under 1,000 when Reagan was sworn in and hit 14,000 earlier this year. America is big ,really big. We've got over 300 million people, a 15 trillion dollar economy, and financial positions all over the world. if you don't need the money any time soon, just hang in there.


"Generosity. That was my first mistake."
"Experience must be our only guide; reason may mislead us."
"Instagram is Twitter for people who can't read."
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: olivant] #514687
10/09/08 06:55 PM
10/09/08 06:55 PM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 17,300
New York
Sicilian Babe Offline
Sicilian Babe  Offline

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Posts: 17,300
New York
GM is under $5 a share, goombah. It's frightening.

As olivant said, though, if you can, hang in there. It will rebound. It may take longer than anyone expects, and things may get a lot worse before they get better, but they will.

I'm going to predict that after the bailout starts actually making payments in a few weeks, and the election is over, things will rebound in a big way.


President Emeritus of the Neal Pulcawer Fan Club
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Sicilian Babe] #514688
10/09/08 06:56 PM
10/09/08 06:56 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296
Throggs Neck
pizzaboy Offline
The Fuckin Doctor
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Throggs Neck
B-U-Y


"I got news for you. If it wasn't for the toilet, there would be no books." --- George Costanza.
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: pizzaboy] #514702
10/09/08 08:04 PM
10/09/08 08:04 PM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 6,762
Anytown, USA
goombah Offline
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Anytown, USA
SB - I was thinking the election will have some positive effect on the economy, too. Whether it is short or long-term remains to be seen. I think this is going to be a bad economy well into next year, but hopefully we've hit the bottom.

This situation reminds me of one of my favorite John Lennon songs:
"Nobody told me there would be days like these
Strange days indeed
Most peculiar, mama"

Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: goombah] #514710
10/09/08 08:52 PM
10/09/08 08:52 PM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 8,766
South of the Pinelands
MaryCas Offline
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South of the Pinelands
Maybe David Blaine can make it better. Didn't we get this way by illusion, sleight of hand, deceit and diversion?

Last edited by MaryCas; 10/09/08 08:53 PM.

Whoever exalts himself will be humbled, whoever humbles himself will be exalted - Matthew 23:12
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: MaryCas] #514714
10/09/08 09:24 PM
10/09/08 09:24 PM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 25,984
California
The Italian Stallionette Offline
The Italian Stallionette  Offline

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Posts: 25,984
California
I'll be the first to admit I know little about Wall Street. Yet, from what I have been hearing, I do believe it is more serious than a lot of people might think. There is no easy fix, purchasing homes and getting loans in general is going to be rough. We see it already with job losses, food prices.

I was listening to a Public Radio station the other day and they were taking calls from everywhere. Let's see if I remember this correctly. Some guy who lived in Boston and owned a car dealership (have no idea what kind of dealership) called. He said that his customers are having a hard time getting loans. He told of one lady who had "good" credit (not excellent but good with no credit card debt, etc). He figured she'd qualify easily.

He said that the loan company called him and told him that thy'd give that lady the loan IF in the event that they had to reposssess the car, the owner of the dealership would pay the first $1,800 of the loan. eek He said in the 20 some years he'd been in the business, he never heard of such a thing.

Last edited by The Italian Stallionette; 10/09/08 09:25 PM.

"Mankind must put an end to war before war puts an end to mankind. War will exist until that distant day when the conscientious objector enjoys the same reputation and prestige that the warrior does today." JFK

"War is over, if you want it" - John Lennon

Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: The Italian Stallionette] #514719
10/09/08 09:53 PM
10/09/08 09:53 PM
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 19,066
OH, VA, KY
Mignon Offline
Mama Mig
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Posts: 19,066
OH, VA, KY


Dylan Matthew Moran born 10/30/12


Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: The Italian Stallionette] #514736
10/09/08 11:20 PM
10/09/08 11:20 PM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 15,025
Texas
O
olivant Online content
olivant  Online Content
O

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Texas
Originally Posted By: The Italian Stallionette
I'll be the first to admit I know little about Wall Street. Yet, from what I have been hearing, I do believe it is more serious than a lot of people might think. There is no easy fix, purchasing homes and getting loans in general is going to be rough. We see it already with job losses, food prices.

I was listening to a Public Radio station the other day and they were taking calls from everywhere. Let's see if I remember this correctly. Some guy who lived in Boston and owned a car dealership (have no idea what kind of dealership) called. He said that his customers are having a hard time getting loans. He told of one lady who had "good" credit (not excellent but good with no credit card debt, etc). He figured she'd qualify easily.

He said that the loan company called him and told him that thy'd give that lady the loan IF in the event that they had to reposssess the car, the owner of the dealership would pay the first $1,800 of the loan. eek He said in the 20 some years he'd been in the business, he never heard of such a thing.


TIS, it's mostly about liquidity. Banks lend to banks witht he Federal Reserve at the top of the pyrimid. If banks don't lend to banks, then liquidity stops. That's what's happening: market to market credit is very limited and may be drying up. Thus peole get laid off and expansion plans are suspended.


"Generosity. That was my first mistake."
"Experience must be our only guide; reason may mislead us."
"Instagram is Twitter for people who can't read."
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: olivant] #514760
10/10/08 06:47 AM
10/10/08 06:47 AM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 17,300
New York
Sicilian Babe Offline
Sicilian Babe  Offline

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Posts: 17,300
New York
The lease on my car ends on October 30th. I've been in and out of several dealerships in the past week, looking at different makes or models. There isn't one dealership that hasn't called me at least three times since my visit. The GM dealer, who I've politely told that I'll be turning in my Buick and NOT getting another GM, called me three times yesterday alone. Thank God for Caller ID. The salesperson at the Nissan dealership told me that they normally sell 300 cars per month. Last month, they barely broke 100. And, as you said, the cost and availability of financing is through the roof. Only Honda and Toyota have decent lease deals. The dealerships are dying.


President Emeritus of the Neal Pulcawer Fan Club
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Sicilian Babe] #514764
10/10/08 08:01 AM
10/10/08 08:01 AM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 6,762
Anytown, USA
goombah Offline
goombah  Offline

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Anytown, USA
I read many car dealers were essentially telling anybody with less than great credit that 30% downpayment would be required. I can't imagine too many low-to-middle income families have that kind of extra cash in these times.

I'm not mentioning this to get into another political debate. But does anybody else worry that the U.S. might suffer the same fate as the U.S.S.R., when the latter collapsed in the early 90s? I have been frightened of this scenario occurring in the U.S. since Katrina. Particularly because Katrina was preceded by the economic disaster after 9/11, along with the enorumous cost of the Iraq War. And what is one big common factor that the Soviets and U.S. had? We were fighthing bin Laden and Afghanistan. He essentially bled the Soviets to death economically. I think it is obvious that is one of his goals against our country too. I think our capitalistic society is more able to fight back than a communist state, but it is still worriesome.

Granted, the mortgage mess and the credit worries are not related to the wars or bin Laden. But I get the feeling he's laughing somewhere right now at the mess we are in, which he was partly responsible for creating. It's fairly obvious that the billions we have sunk into Iraq a) could have helped rebuild New Orleans, b) been reinvested into better energy plans, c) used in improving our existing infrastructure. What's done is done, we cannot change it. But I sometimes fear that we have played right into the same trap the Soviets did against bin Laden.


Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: goombah] #514770
10/10/08 09:01 AM
10/10/08 09:01 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 25,984
California
The Italian Stallionette Offline
The Italian Stallionette  Offline

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Posts: 25,984
California
Another tidbit I learned, that most here probably know. Credit card companies could lower your credit limit as well. You know all the "junk" mail we get listing our credit card conditions, etc? Well pay attention because it could be notifying you that your limit has dropped from one amount to another.

I paid off credit cards years ago (thank God) and was determined not to use them again if at all possible. Now, when I travel or buy on-line I'll use them, BUT pay them off right away when I get the bill.

Oh, another thing, home equity loans too....the mortgage company (or whoever) can suddently notify you that your line of credit is not as much as you think it is.

You all probably know this, but just in case. ohwell

TIS

Last edited by The Italian Stallionette; 10/10/08 09:02 AM.

"Mankind must put an end to war before war puts an end to mankind. War will exist until that distant day when the conscientious objector enjoys the same reputation and prestige that the warrior does today." JFK

"War is over, if you want it" - John Lennon

Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: The Italian Stallionette] #514771
10/10/08 09:07 AM
10/10/08 09:07 AM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 17,300
New York
Sicilian Babe Offline
Sicilian Babe  Offline

Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 17,300
New York
I did hear about the credit cards, but didn't know about Home Equity lines. Ridiculous. I guess they feel that if you have a $200,000 line and have consistently only used $100,000 of it, that's credit that could be made available to others? Or is it because they want to reduce their risk that you'll grab the $200,000, pay off other stuff, and then stop paying???


President Emeritus of the Neal Pulcawer Fan Club
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Sicilian Babe] #514777
10/10/08 09:40 AM
10/10/08 09:40 AM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,384
Staten Island / New Jersey
Just Lou Offline
Just Lou  Offline

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Staten Island / New Jersey
The Market has only been open for a few minutes, and the DOW is already down another 700. Under 8,000. rolleyes

Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Just Lou] #514791
10/10/08 11:37 AM
10/10/08 11:37 AM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,384
Staten Island / New Jersey
Just Lou Offline
Just Lou  Offline

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Posts: 8,384
Staten Island / New Jersey
Fox News 10/10/2008

11:30AM

Crude Continues to Fall off a Cliff

Evidence of global recession fears were most obvious in the price of crude oil, which briefly plunged below $80 a barrel to its lowest level of the year. However, crude prices recovered along with the equities markets, recently down $5.93 to $80.66 a barrel.

Oil has been on an incredible rollercoaster ride in 2008, soaring to $147 a barrel in July before collapsing and turning negative on the year. Crude has been under intense pressure from both the strengthening U.S. dollar and simple supply and demand. Recession fears have forced the energy market to price in significantly lower global demand.

Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Just Lou] #514794
10/10/08 11:42 AM
10/10/08 11:42 AM
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 22,902
New York
SC Offline OP
Consigliere
SC  Offline OP
Consigliere

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Posts: 22,902
New York
Originally Posted By: Just Lou
The Market has only been open for a few minutes, and the DOW is already down another 700.


It's only down 350 points now. It's recovered half of today's loss.

The crisis is over!!!

rolleyes


.
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Just Lou] #514795
10/10/08 11:45 AM
10/10/08 11:45 AM
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 22,902
New York
SC Offline OP
Consigliere
SC  Offline OP
Consigliere

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New York
Originally Posted By: Just Lou
Evidence of global recession fears were most obvious in the price of crude oil, which briefly plunged below $80 a barrel to its lowest level of the year. However, crude prices recovered along with the equities markets, recently down $5.93 to $80.66 a barrel.


Just wait until the OPEC countries vote to slow down production (causing an "artificial" shortage in which prices will rise again).


.
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: SC] #514796
10/10/08 11:51 AM
10/10/08 11:51 AM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,384
Staten Island / New Jersey
Just Lou Offline
Just Lou  Offline

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Staten Island / New Jersey
Originally Posted By: SC
[quote=Just Lou]

Just wait until the OPEC countries vote to slow down production (causing an "artificial" shortage in which prices will rise again).


Yeah, that's only a matter of time. rolleyes

Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Just Lou] #514799
10/10/08 12:45 PM
10/10/08 12:45 PM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 17,300
New York
Sicilian Babe Offline
Sicilian Babe  Offline

Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 17,300
New York
Just in time for winter.


President Emeritus of the Neal Pulcawer Fan Club
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Sicilian Babe] #514800
10/10/08 12:52 PM
10/10/08 12:52 PM
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 2,907
Born on the Bayou
Saladbar Offline
Underboss
Saladbar  Offline
Underboss
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Posts: 2,907
Born on the Bayou
Originally Posted By: Sicilian Babe
Turi,
I love reading your posts. First of all, you're so knowledgeable. Secondly, I love getting a different perspective of the whole mess.



I know. My boy is all grown up and the authority on the subject!


"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it"
Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: Just Lou] #514802
10/10/08 01:49 PM
10/10/08 01:49 PM
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 19,066
OH, VA, KY
Mignon Offline
Mama Mig
Mignon  Offline
Mama Mig

Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 19,066
OH, VA, KY
Originally Posted By: Just Lou
Yeah, that's only a matter of time. rolleyes


How much do you wanna bet that prices will go back up after the election?


Dylan Matthew Moran born 10/30/12


Re: What the F*ck is Going On With the Economy? [Re: goombah] #514811
10/10/08 02:39 PM
10/10/08 02:39 PM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 15,025
Texas
O
olivant Online content
olivant  Online Content
O

Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 15,025
Texas
Originally Posted By: goombah
I read many car dealers were essentially telling anybody with less than great credit that 30% downpayment would be required. I can't imagine too many low-to-middle income families have that kind of extra cash in these times.

I'm not mentioning this to get into another political debate. But does anybody else worry that the U.S. might suffer the same fate as the U.S.S.R., when the latter collapsed in the early 90s? I have been frightened of this scenario occurring in the U.S. since Katrina. Particularly because Katrina was preceded by the economic disaster after 9/11, along with the enorumous cost of the Iraq War. And what is one big common factor that the Soviets and U.S. had? We were fighthing bin Laden and Afghanistan. He essentially bled the Soviets to death economically. I think it is obvious that is one of his goals against our country too. I think our capitalistic society is more able to fight back than a communist state, but it is still worriesome.

Granted, the mortgage mess and the credit worries are not related to the wars or bin Laden. But I get the feeling he's laughing somewhere right now at the mess we are in, which he was partly responsible for creating. It's fairly obvious that the billions we have sunk into Iraq a) could have helped rebuild New Orleans, b) been reinvested into better energy plans, c) used in improving our existing infrastructure. What's done is done, we cannot change it. But I sometimes fear that we have played right into the same trap the Soviets did against bin Laden.



The Soviet Union collapsed for a combination of reasons. One important one was the refusal of the international community to value the Ruble as a legitimate currency. Thus, the SU had to accumulate cash to pay its bills, much of it in dollars which at the time so many other national governments were competing for. They were also forced to trade in commodities. Overall, there were significant limits placed on the SU's ability to conduct business. Of course, there was little or no middle class in the SU across which to spur productivity and consumption. There is no parallel with what's going on in the US now. As I posted elsewhere, this Nation's economic power is tremendous and cyclical downturns attended by specific events are inevitable, but will be absorbed.

Last edited by olivant; 10/10/08 02:41 PM.

"Generosity. That was my first mistake."
"Experience must be our only guide; reason may mislead us."
"Instagram is Twitter for people who can't read."
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