OK, what I don't get is the difference between the Gallup polls.

One is registered voters. One is "likely voters current intentions". And one is "likely voters current intentions and past voting history". It's strange. You can read more on Gallup's website:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111229/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Lead.aspx

Alright, thanks Lou. And in other news...

Newspapers that Endorsed Bush in 2004 who Endorse Obama in 2008

NEW YORK The Denver Post, which had backed George W. Bush in 2004 and is owned by Republican-leaning William Dean Singleton, this evening endorsed Barack Obama for president. So did the Chicago Sun-Times, Kansas City Star. Southwest News-Herald (Ill.) and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And to top it off: two more Bush backers in 2004, The Salt Lake Tribune and Las Cruces (N.M) Sun-News.

This followed this afternoon's surprises: the Chicago Tribune, which has never in 150 years endorsed a Democrat, backed Obama, as did its fellow Tribune paper, the Los Angeles -- which had endorsed no one in more than 30 years. It seems like a dam broke yesterday with the unexpectedly early choice of Obama by The Washington Post.

In E&P's exclusive count, Obama now leads 62-18 in editorial endorsements. New additions for him include the Miami Herald, the Philadelphia Inquirer and The Oregonian of Portland. Check out our running list, updated Saturday here.

Colorodo, of course, is a key swing state. Georgia is also now, surprisingly, in play and the Atlanta paper is the state's largest.

The Salt Lake paper complained that "out of nowhere, and without proper vetting, the impetuous McCain picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. She quickly proved grievously underequipped to step into the presidency should McCain, at 72 and with a history of health problems, die in office. More than any single factor, McCain's bad judgment in choosing the inarticulate, insular and ethically challenged Palin disqualifies him for the presidency.

"Still, we have compelling reasons for endorsing Obama on his merits alone. Under the most intense scrutiny and attacks from both parties, Obama has shown the temperament, judgment, intellect and political acumen that are essential in a president that would lead the United States out of the crises created by President Bush, a complicit Congress and our own apathy."

The Kansas City paper also hit McCain hard for choosing an "unqualfied" running mate.

The Denver paper posted on its site this evening: "The Denver Post's editorial board today has endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for president."

The Post decided Obama is "better equipped to lead America back to a prosperous future....In unsteady times, it may seem obvious to gravitate toward the veteran politician, but in this campaign, it's been the newcomer who has had the steady hand."

Today's endorsement will appear in Sunday's print edition of The Denver Post. Like most of the other major papers making a pick this week, it came out on the Web well before landing in print.

The paper's site also boasts a dissenting view from the editorial board (see editorial writer Chuck Plunkett's column). And Editorial Page Editor Dan Haley explains how it all went down, pointing out that the "independent" paper has split its last 14 picks for president right down the middle in party choice. He writes: "Today, with our endorsement of Obama, we lean further to the left than my own personal compass. But it's where the majority of our board is, and that's OK.

"We know our endorsement is likely to anger about, oh, 47 percent of the people in Colorado. And that's OK, too.
Endorsements are meant to stoke a public dialogue."

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875479

GOP turnout lagging in heavy N. Carolina early voting

Thursday's first day of early voting drew record numbers across North Carolina, election officials said, as more than 100,000 people turned out.

That exceeded the 2004 figure by about 40 percent, said Gary Bartlett, executive director of the State Board of Elections.

"We blew it away," Bartlett said Friday, encouraging other voters to take advantage of the early voting period before it ends on Nov. 1. "If not, it will be a long day on Election Day."

Mecklenburg County, where Chgarlotte is located, also set records, with an updated count showing more than 10,000 voting on the first day, and an additional 7,000 on Friday. Michael Dickerson, the county's elections director, suspects Friday's totals might have been higher if not for the rain.

Across the state, Democrats showed the most first-day enthusiasm. Of the nearly 114,000 first-day voters, 64 percent were Democrats, 21 percent Republicans and 15 percent unaffiliateds.

African American turnout was up significantly. Black voters, who make up about 22 percent of registered voters, were 36 percent of Thursday's early voters.

In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

Experts estimate that Barack Obama needs a black turnout in North Carolina of between 22 percent to 23 percent to carry the state. No Democratic presidential candidate has carried North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/54396.html

Hmmm. If the black vote was almost 19% for Kerry/Bush, it shouldn't be that difficult to get 23% for Obama/Bush.

State’s early voting continues at breakneck pace

CONCORD — Another 100,000 North Carolina voters cast a ballot in the second day of early voting, sustaining a breakneck pace that began when polls opened Thursday, elections officials said Saturday.

Braving hours-long lines, voters eager to cast a ballot amid presidential, Senate and governor’s races that are too close to call have surged to the polls in record numbers. State Board of Elections figures show that some 214,000 voters have now voted at one-stop sites in North Carolina.

The numbers have clearly favored Democrats. Some 62 percent of voters who have cast a ballot in early voting are registered with the party. Only 22 percent are registered Republicans.

By comparison, about 46 percent of all registered voters in the state are declared Democrats while 32 percent are with the GOP.

Amy Black, 40, of Kernersville, said she’s not concerned by the low early turnout of registered Republicans like herself. She plans to early vote next week to beat the lines.

“It’s only been two days,” she said after attending a rally for Republican presidential nominee John McCain in Concord.

The state GOP cautions that many Democrats and independents in North Carolina — where President Bush won by 12 points four years ago — may trend to McCain. Voters in the state generally prefer Democrats for state offices and Republicans to hold national seats.

And while Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama pushed voters to the polls on opening day, the Republicans are planning a number of political events in the upcoming week to emphasize the voting option. They’ve also invested in mail-in absentee balloting.

Elections officials and campaign observers expects that one-third of North Carolina voters could go to the polls before Election Day.

http://www.fayobserver.com/article?id=307829

TIS, I know exactly what you mean when you talk about the hope and excitement that Senator Obama generates. I think that's one of the things I like so much about him. After the 2000 election, when all we heard about was how we should be ashamed of our last president, and the 2004 and 2008 elections when the Republicans have preached fear and terrorists, it is so wonderful to feel a sense of hope. I love to watch Obama approach a podium, the energy he exudes as he skips up some stairs and strides to the podium - it's such a contrast, like a breath of fresh air.

McCain draws bipartisan criticism for 'robo calls'

10/18/2008

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Senators in opposing political parties asked Republican presidential candidate John McCain to stop the automated phone calls that link Democratic candidate Barack Obama to a 1960s radical.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, Sen. Norm Coleman, a Minnesota Republican and Sen. Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, made separate appeals to McCain on Friday. Collins faces a tough race for re-election and serves as a co-chairwoman of his Maine campaign.

"These kind of tactics have no place in Maine politics," Collins spokesman Kevin Kelley said. "Sen. Collins urges the McCain campaign to stop these calls immediately."

Coleman, in a tight re-election campaign, said he hoped all candidates and outside groups would stop their attacks.

In Nevada, a four-page campaign flier mailed this week by the state Republican Party also focused on Obama's past relationship with former Weather Underground leader Bill Ayers, calling the college professor a "terrorist, radical, friend of Obama" and featuring several images of Obama and Ayers.

Reid told reporters at a news conference in Las Vegas that he's surprised at the "scummy" tactics employed by McCain's presidential campaign and "can't believe John McCain knows what's going on."

The McCain campaign says the calls are warranted because Obama's connection to Ayers — the two met many years after Ayers' anti-Vietnam War activities had ended — raises questions about the Democrat's judgment and record.

"This is an association that is highly questionable and not out of bounds," McCain spokesman Rick Gorka said.

The automated calls in Maine, Nevada and other states — they are commonly known as "robo calls" — say Obama "has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. Capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home and killed Americans." The charge is misleading: The bombings, which took place more than 35 years ago, didn't result in fatalities and the group didn't claim responsibility for the attack on the judge's home.

Obama has condemned Ayers' radical activities, which took place in the late 1960s and the 1970s, when Obama was a child. In the debate Wednesday with McCain, Obama said Ayers played no role in his presidential campaign.

Ayers, an education professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago, lives in Obama's neighborhood in Chicago. In 1995, he hosted a meet-the-candidate session at his home as the young Harvard Law School graduate prepared to run for the Illinois Senate. The two also worked with two nonprofit charitable organizations in Chicago.

McCain Adviser Says Northern Virginia Not "Real" Virginia

October 18, 2008

It might be a good idea for the folks from the McCain campaign to take a day off, take a breath, and then return to work. Republicans unaffiliated with the campaign tell me the "bunker" mentality there is really starting to hurt them.

To wit: McCain senior adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer on MSNBC today.

"As a proud resident of Oakton, Virginia, I can tell you that the Democrats have just come in from the District of Columbia and moved into northern Virginia," Pfotenhauer said, speaking of Democratic gains in that part of the state. "And that's really what you see there.

"But the rest of the state, 'real Virginia,' if you will, I think will be very responsive to Senator McCain’s message," she continued.

Pfotenhauer went on to make a totally valid point about Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., having to play defense in Pennsylvania, as areas in battleground states where Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., could do well.

"And remember that, you know, you’ve got places in other states like northern Wisconsin, the iron range of Minnesota, south-central and southeastern Pennsylvania, the St. Louis suburbs and the rural areas of Missouri that are very responsive to our message," she said. "And again we're taking it to them in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. He’s having to fight to defend there, as you can tell because he's deployed people like the Clintons out in Pennsylvania. And every speech Joe Biden gives, he says, 'I’m from Scranton.' You don't know what else he's going to say, but he sure gets that line in."

But the "real Virginia" line -- made in the wake of the nominee's brother, Joe McCain, referring to Arlington and Alexandria as "Communist country" -- is what's most likely to make news, and help Team Obama drive up Democratic turnout in the battleground state.

"Hey Nancy," said the MSNBC anchor, "I’m going to give you a chance to climb back off that ledge. Did you say 'real Virginia'?"

"I did say outside of north – well, I mean real Virginia, because northern Virginia is where I’ve always been, but real Virginia I take to be the – this part of the state that is more southern in nature, if you will," she said. "Northern Virginia is really metro D.C., as you're aware, Kevin."

Well TIS where you see hope and excitement I see dread & doom if Obama gets elected(which I think he will) Take it from me this nation will be screwed if Obama gets elected. Plus you call the media rightwing leaning, man that is laughable the media is so damned left wing it's not even funny.

So much for the hype of Palin's SNL appearance. They made fun of her for a few minutes, she had about 3 lines to start the show, and that was it.

I will!!!

I can't predict the future, so who knows. I'm pretty in the middle in politics, generally. But when it comes to foreign affairs -- at least while during a mission, regardless of how we ended up in there -- I gotta lean toward the right. The left doesn't seem to know shit about anything beyond our borders. And just to show I'm not some right-winger, I'm starting to believe that republican presidents purposely get our nation involved in long, drawn-out affairs JUST to help perpetuate their party's prominence in the White House!

Hell, I'll probably vote for McCain simply because I totally support a RESPONSIBLE withdrawal from Iraq. That's NOT a vote for going in there to begin with, and that's certainly not a vote against withdrawal. But it'd be a vote for a RESPONSIBLE withdrawal. Our commanders know what's going on there a helluva lot better than any U.S. citizen does, including Obama. And for that matter, McCain as well.

We can't lose that "war", or we'll be in deep shit. McCain knows that, and I think he also knows that we need to get (fully) back into Afghanistan, and, we need to hit Pakistan as well.

But now we're conveniently in a recession -- shit, almost globally at this point. Sheesh. Who's to blame? I don't know. But certainly the Left's typical protocal of raising taxes like Robin Hood isn't gonna help much, while at the same time international affairs turn even worse. So go ahead, let's give That One a shot at it. Tell me how it is 4 yrs from now when the economy gets better ON ITS OWN, despite more attacks on the Free World due to a lax in military force.

If we were in a peaceful time, I'd have no problem giving Obama a shot. But we're not. And we certainly won't be 4 years from now if he's president (IMHO).

[/rant]

Really? You can't say who is to blame? Like wanting a war and at the same time and not wanting to raise taxes to pay for it? And you think it would get better on its own? Like a war would start paying for itself? Like it has been getting better and better these past eight years, right? With printing money out of thin air with absolutely no back up, and sharing in the world's wealth?

Personally, I'm not sure why anyone from the left would want to get in the office at the moment and pick up the pieces. The aftermath of all the economical and global irresponsibilities of this administration in these past eight years has not yet sank in. Anyone who gets elected would have to raise taxes to pay for the debt anyway. McCain would do it, as would Obama.

And as for the foreign affairs, they equally know nothing and war in Iraq is pretty much lost anyway. But what makes me cringe from right, even more than when Bush was in charge is imagining Palin end up being the president. And when I thought no one can make Bush look good. McCain would've actually made a fine president if he had not made this desperate choice of running mate.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Retired U.S. Gen. Colin Powell, a former secretary of state in the Bush administration, on Sunday endorsed Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.

In an appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press," Powell backed Obama over fellow Republican John McCain, calling the Democratic nominee a "transformational figure" who could be an "exceptional president."

Powell said he plans to vote for Obama in the November 4 election but does not intend to campaign for the Illinois senator as Obama and McCain enter the final weeks of their battle for the White House.

Powell, who served in the military and government for 40 years, said he is not looking for a job in an Obama administration. However, he said, "I've always said if a president asks you to do something, you have to consider it."

McCain, appearing on "Fox News Sunday," said Powell's support of Obama did not come as a surprise and said four other secretaries of state had endorsed him.

In picking Obama over McCain, Powell said either "man would be a good president."

Powell praised Obama's "depth of knowledge" and "steadiness," while he was critical of what he described as McCain's uncertainty over how to deal with economic crisis.

Powell also voiced concern about McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate.

"She is a very distinguished woman and she is to be admired," Powell said. "But ... I don't believe she is ready to be president of the United States."

Err, sorry to rain on your parade, but the U.S. is negotiating with the Iraqi "government" (about as stable as Alec Baldwin with his kids) a security pact where our frontline combat troops would withdraw in 2009, and the last Americans military personel would leave on December 31, 2011.

So really, you can't vote on this issue, if there is NO issue then. I am pretty sure that if Dubya gets that deal sealed before he leaves office, Obama won't void or nullify it.



Yes because we as a nation were so fucked after we left Vietnam. Oh wait, the USSR collapsed in 1991. Holy shit, we won the Cold War in spite of losing Nam! Whoa Macaroni!

Anyway, you know that Obama...and here is my spin-doctor dipshit moment of the day....anyway, Obama called for a surge in troops for Afghanistan before the White House did, the same as well on a Iraq withdrawal plan/timetable. As I've said before, if Obama is so wreckless, why did the White House follow his lead on both points?

Usually the President, NOT a candidate, leads our foreign policy.



You know, I don't think Obama will govern from the left, at least for the first year, to the surprise of you and dismay of the liberals. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if Obama has more fights with HIS party than the GOPers.

An interesting discussion on THIS WEEK today, where Gergen and Gingrinch both agreed that Obama shouldn't raise anyone's taxes for at least the first year.



Compare Iran in 2001 when Clinton left office to Iran in 2009. Notice how the great failure perhaps of the Dubya Administration was allowing Iran to grow in prominence in the region. Before Iraq, Iran was contained by Saddam, and despite what facts you or DJ or appleonya can give me to excuse for that war, Iran was contained.

To put it another way, why fight when your enemies can fight each other? Shit, Iran almost went to war with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in the late 90s because of a Taliban attack on a Iranian diplomatic envoy.

If anything Geoff, look at history, and I see Obama trying to imitate more Kennedy than the Liberal Doomsday scenario that you seem to be dreaming about.

Yeah JFK is seen as a liberal, but he also had the CIA overthrow the regimes in Iraq and South Vietnam (indirectly leading to Diem getting skull-capped), escalated our involvement in Vietnam, and he was willing to start nuclear WW3 over fucking Cuba.

All I'm saying is, instead of trying to play Rambo, we should be like Ninjas. Use smarts, mobility, quick-action/withdrawal guerilla warfare, fight on our schedule instead of our enemies.

Zogby has Obama up by 2 points among likely voters.

Do you mean he's up by only 2 points, or that his lead has increased by 2 points?

Gallup has it 50-42, per MSNBC

49-43 in Poll of Polls (per CNN) a average of all polls

Two weeks from Tuesday.


TIS

Thanks TIS.

No thanks. I don't get why anyone would want to take anything from you to begin with. God, you say that with such a matter a fact tone too.

Frank Rich has an article on Huffington Post with this picture, entitled "McCain Just Can't Quit Bush."

TIS

Considering how screwed we are already....I doubt he can do any worse.

We have had 8 years of "fucked-up"....8 years. My God, what has to happen to acknowledge this?? I am ready to take a chance and go with something new. Our nation is more than ready for it. A President with a brain is a great concept.


TIS

Anyway, here is Powell's appearance on MTP, and his rather intelligent argument for why a former Republican Secretary of State is endorsing a Democratic candidate:



Reasons include

- Obama's more "inclusive" party platform (the GOP has gone too far-right for his taste)
- The irrelevancy/racial tinge of the McCain campaign in recent weeks in continuing the smears that OBama is a muslim or/and a terrorist or whatever nonsense.
- the Obama campaign's handling of when the Economy went to hell.

I tell ya, his whole piece on the Muslim-American soldier who died in Iraq actually left a tear on my eye.

This just reaffirms how moderates/disgruntled Conservatives from within the Republican Party have just been alienated by the Dubya Years, and either are staying home or giving non-official blessings to the Obama campaign, or outright endorsements, like George Will and now the most promiment "Obamacon" (Republicans for Obama) in Colin Powell.

BINGO!!!!

Thanks for the history lesson, RRA - I was never good in that subject. But please don't lump me into the Conservative group; I consider myself in the middle, as I said. I don't dislike Obama -- in fact he's quite likable and I would have no problem if (when) he wins. I don't really trust either one, though. But whenever I think of Palin, my mind does lean in Obama's direction more! I still need to read their positions in more depth, however. You can't get the whole picture from debates - it should be more than a talent show.

Obama is +3 in today's Zogby Poll. Down 1 point from yesterday.
Obama is +6 in today's Rasmussen Poll. Up 1 point from yesterday.
Gallup's Sunday Poll won't be out until after 1PM.

Pretty much how I feel. I'm willing to take a chance. I can't imagine the next 4 years being worse than the last 8.