Despite at least a 1/2 dozen other polls today showing Obama with a huge lead and growing, the AP now says the race is tied.
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch
This AP poll is based on a likely voter model vs registered voter model. This only proves that when you adjust your models to assume that none of the newly registered Obama Voters will actually vote, sure enough, Obama's lead disappears..duh.
But, meh, I don't mind the error in this basic statistical concept is all spin, maybe it will offset complacency.
This doesn't jive:
The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.
