Perceptions of Palin Grow Increasingly Negative, Poll Says

By Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A03

While top-of-the-ticket rivals John McCain and Barack Obama both remain broadly popular heading into Election Day, public perceptions of Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin have fallen dramatically since she emerged on the national political scene at the GOP convention.

A majority of likely voters in a new Washington Post-ABC News national poll now have unfavorable views of the Alaska governor, most still doubt her presidential qualifications and there is an even split on whether she "gets it," a perception that had been a key component of her initial appeal.

Palin's addition to the GOP ticket initially helped McCain narrow the gap with Obama on the question of which presidential hopeful "better understands the problems of people like you," but at 18 percentage points, the Democrat's margin on that question is now as big as it has been all fall. Nor has Palin attracted female voters to McCain, as his campaign had hoped.

Obama is up by a large margin among women, 57 to 41 percent in the new Post-ABC tracking poll. The senator from Illinois just about ties McCain among white women -- 48 percent back Obama, 49 percent McCain -- a group that President Bush won by 11 points four years ago and one that had shifted significantly toward the GOP this year after the Palin pick.

In polling conducted Wednesday and Thursday evenings, after the disclosure that the Republican National Committee used political funds to help Palin assemble a wardrobe for the campaign, 51 percent said they have a negative impression of her. Fewer, 46 percent, said they have a favorable view. That marks a stark turnaround from early September, when 59 percent of likely voters held positive opinions.

The declines in Palin's ratings have been even more substantial among the very voters Republicans aimed to woo. The percentage of white women viewing her favorably dropped 21 points since early September; among independent women, it fell 24 points.

More broadly, the intensity of negative feelings about Palin is also notable: Forty percent of voters have "strongly unfavorable" views, more than double the post-convention number. Nearly half of independent women now see her in a very negative light, a nearly threefold increase.

The shift in Palin's ratings come with a pronounced spike in the percentage of voters who see her as lacking the experience it takes to be a good president. Voters were about evenly divided on that question a month and a half ago, but toward the end of September a clear majority said she was not qualified. In the new poll, 58 percent said she is insufficiently experienced.

Among a recent spate of conservative defections from McCain, one leading Republican was particularly pointed about the impact of Palin's professional background on his decision. Charles Fried, a professor at Harvard Law School and former solicitor general under Ronald Reagan, asked that the McCain-Palin campaign remove his name from several committees in large part because of "the choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis."

A Post-ABC poll earlier this week reported that the Palin pick deeply damaged voters' confidence in the types of decisions McCain would make as president.

Perhaps more fundamentally for Palin's national political future, though, is that voters in the new poll are evenly divided about whether she understands their problems. Three weeks ago, 60 percent said she did; now it is 50 percent yes, 47 percent no.

Both Democratic and independent women are half as likely as they were in late September to see Palin as empathetic. Among independent women, the percentage who view Palin as in tune with people like themselves slipped from 73 to 50 percent.

Palin's struggle to connect deepens McCain's own deficit on the issue. On the question of who is more empathetic, 55 percent of voters said Obama, 37 percent McCain. And McCain picks up few of those who view Palin as disconnected.

But the gap is smaller on overall favorability, one of the factors that buoys the GOP ticket as Election Day approaches, despite generally negative poll numbers: 63 percent of likely voters have favorable impressions of Obama, 55 percent of McCain. Among the crucial segment of independent voters, the two rivals have identical 58 percent favorable ratings.

Taking the tickets together, 53 percent of likely voters express favorable views of both Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., 41 percent of both McCain and Palin. Those numbers are very close to current vote preferences in the latest Post-ABC tracking poll: Fifty-three percent said they would vote Democratic if the election were held today; 44 percent would opt for the GOP.

How sad about the girl who said she was attacked because she was a McCain supporter. I only read the full story now. I picked up bits and pieces at work and heard that Drudge and some Neocon sites were jumping right on it. Were the really blaming Obama?

Anyway, Obama is ruling again today in the polls and looks like he's still maintaining and growing, even in the swing states. Looking good. Keep your fingers crossed.

Let's see and if I'm not mistaken RR, I think a couple more Republicans can be added to your Rebublican Obama supporter list above.

Just heard David Gergen on Anderson Cooper who said that Obama's tv spot will be on Wednesday (don't know a time, but somebody post if they do. It's before the game I think)
Anyway, Gergen was commenting on how well and strategic the Obama camp is planning every move trying not to pay attention to polls or get too over confident. He said that although Obama will speak during this half hour "special" that it is not going to be a speech, but more like a show. He referred to it as Obama giving his "closing arguments" (Kly and DT can relate)

Gergen also questioned why, with Obama off the campaign trail for two days, McCain didn't use the opening for more of a showcase (for lack of a better word) of his ideas/policies instead of using it say, the scare tactic campaign ad (aka George Bush administration M.O.)

TIS

McCain's brother apologizes for calling 911

By GILLIAN GAYNAIR – 33 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The brother of presidential candidate Sen. John McCain said Friday he'll withdraw from campaign activities after calling 911 to complain about traffic. Joe McCain also apologized for making the call.

The GOP candidate's brother, who lives in Alexandria, Va., told Washington radio station WTOP he was returning from a campaign event in Philadelphia around 2 a.m. on Oct. 18 when he got stuck in traffic on Interstate 495 at the Wilson Bridge.

Frustrated after 40 minutes, he called 911 to find out what was going on.

When the operator "properly chided" him for calling 911 to complain about traffic, McCain uttered an expletive and hung up the phone. McCain said he thought his cell phone had already clicked off.

"I did not mean to swear at the officers themselves," McCain said. If he were in their situation, "it would have really frosted me too and I absolutely understand their reaction."

After hanging up with 911, McCain said he called Alexandria Police to ask them about the traffic on the bridge and got a similar reaction.

McCain said he hasn't spoken to his brother about the incident.

"He's not going to be happy about it, I'm sure," he said.

"I feel terrible about having hurt the campaign over this incident," he said. "I won't be doing any more campaigning because of that."

McCain said he's going to write a note of apology to the 911 operator and to the Alexandria police.

The McCain campaign did not immediately respond to a call and e-mail seeking comment.

McCain's brother has been in the news on other occasions recently. Joe McCain, speaking at an event in early October in support of his brother, called two Democratic-leaning areas in Northern Virginia "communist country."

"I've lived here for at least 10 years and before that about every third duty I was in either Arlington or Alexandria, up in communist country," Joe McCain, a Navy veteran, said at an event in Loudoun County, Va. Joe McCain then apologized, but the remark reportedly drew laughter at the event.

About a week later, the candidate's brother sent an e-mail blasting the campaign's "counter-productive" strategy.

"Let John McCain be John McCain," Joe McCain wrote in the e-mail. "Make ads that show John not as crank and curmudgeon but as a great leader for his time."

McCain's younger brother was sharply critical of unnamed top campaign officials who "so tightly 'control the message'" that they are preventing reporters from speaking with those, like himself, who know the candidate best.

Oh yea, I forgot about McCain's brother. Wow!!! I guess hot-headness runs in the family. What a horrible day for McCain.



TIS

Just to be "fair and balanced" here

Obama lead on McCain slips to 9 points

Yes, some of them were blaming Obama.
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-...hley_todds.html

To be fair I think most people look for "reality" that matches up with their biases. However a few of the more extreme right wing blogs were skeptical of the story from the beginning.

But those who are eager to see Obama (and perhaps any Black man) as a "street thug" or fear a possible Obama presidency as ushering in a "thugocracy" aren't going to change their hindbrain thinking anytime soon. Rationality goes out the window...

That was a really interesting analysis. It worked for me.

.


Not so fast there Mr. Man!!!

According to MSNBC, Newsweek poll it's Obama 53 and McCain 41. Why aren't all the pundits now asking (Scarborough comes to mind) "Why can't McCain close the deal???"

Not only that, according to MSNBC, the same Newsweek poll had Bush's job approval rating at 23 per cent. If I am not mistaken, he now holds the record for the lowest approval rating? Ok, I won't get started, but, I'm just saying.....


TIS

On a lighter, more fun note....I don't know how they made this, but it's the McCAIN/OBAMA DANCE-OFF. Look at them go!!!


TIS


http://www.break.com/index/unbelievable-mccain-vs-obama-dance-off.html

I'm just having a conversation with myself right now. JL, RR where are you guys?

Anyway, what I don't get is now, for instance, Obama has a double digit lead in PA right now. Why is it still considered a "toss up" state???


TIS

You do realize that the last time you pointed out that Obama dropped 2 points to +4 in this same exact poll, he shot up to about +12 a couple days later.

I'm here. I do have to sleep some time.
As for PA being a toss-up, I have not seen any source calling it a "toss-up". I do see some sources still calling it "leaning Obama", but on average he has a 8-15 point lead.

Sleep??? You can't sleep during an election cycle.

Ok, I guess you're right, it is "leaning". On the CNN map it is still a "gray" state, not given to either candidate. Speaking of the electoral vote maps. If you check out the map, where you can "give" the remaining states to whomever you think will win them....by my calculations, McCain would have to win nearly all of them in order to win the electoral votes no??? While, granted anything can happen in the 11 days we have left, but at this point, can he win electorally???

I hear pundits recommend he campaigns in PA, but I wonder why he wouldn't go to a state where it's closer (even if PA has a lot of electoral votes).

TIS

He's gotta hope to win most of the closer states and somehow win PA. There are so many former red states leaning blue right now, his only chance is to win Ohio, Florida, and PA. If he loses one of the 3, he has virtually no chance.


...I just checked the CNN map, and they have PA blue.

http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/

My prediction, McCain will take FL, Obama Ohio & PA. For some reason I never paid much attention to Nevada, and would have guessed it to be a blue state, but I guess it is usually red. I think MCain will take that as well and Obama Colorado. Virginia is the "surprise" tossup I hear, don't know about that or the others. Plus, more and more I'm still sticking with my far fetched perdiction that this could be a landslide, based on what I am reading as far as the early voting turnout, Neos switching to Obama and the true desire for change. I'll be happy if O wins by a squeaker though.

TIS

My brother predicts that Obama will win a close popular vote and a landslide electoral one. We shall see. Like you TIS, I'd be happy with any Obama victory, no matter how narrow.

Right now, if McCain wins every toss-up state, Obama still wins in a squeaker. If they split the toss-ups, Obama wins in a landslide. McCain has to turn at least 1 current blue state red.

At this point, I don't know in what Obama state that McCain would have a shot....unless of course something "major" happens in the next 10 days or so....I suppose that could be a real game changer. Then again, with the millions voting early or by mail, maybe not a huge change. All I know is,I can't wait til it's over (even though this is kind of fun). I'm getting agita (sp)with all this exciting turmoil.


BTW, anyone know what the biggest electoral landslide was? Or biggest popular vote win????


TIS

The largest electoral vote landslide was in 1984. Reagan won 525-13.
Mondale won 1 state.

Really? I should remember that one. Boy, bad enough to lose, but man.....Not a good day for Mondale.



TIS

That was actually the most electoral votes anyone every received. FDR won in 1936, 523-8, when the the total was 531.

Its bad when a biased-guy like Bill O'Reilly calls that brother a "pinhead" on television.

Worse, Mondale only won his home-state of Minnesota...by a mere 6,000 votes.

Speaking of O'Reilly, last night's Countdown:

Reminds me of back in 2004 when CBS News ran that stupid report about Dubya skipping on his National Guard obligation, and the Lefties all jumped on it as legit, because they wanted something, ANYTHING, to nail Dubya's political coffin.

And like this race-baiting faux-attack, it blew up in their faces.

It's bad when the Vice-President of FOX NEWS said that if the report was found false, McCain's legacy won't be his bi-partisan bills or whatever, but of recent weeks, culminating in this scam.




The biggest one is William Weld, the former Governor of Massachusetts, who previously supported Romney in the GOP Primaries earlier this year.







Well I knew that special wasn't gonna be an epic speech. If he was, people would get bored and go channel surfing.

I would think it would be more of a glorified infomercial.



He could have had a shot on those days...if NOT for that scam race-baiting attack claim by that McCain staffer, or Palin's $150,000 shopping spree with RNC donor cash*, or Al Qaeda endorsing McCain(!) or Palin's flub on the constitutional duties of a VP, etc.

This shit snowballs.

*=You would be surprised with the # of GOPers who are pissed over that. They donated their money for their causes, to help candidates get elected, etc....NOT for a fucking make-over.

Remember those "Wass-Up?!?!" beer commercials from 8 years ago?

Well those guys are back:

October 25, 2008
While McCain Looked Away, Florida Shifted
By ADAM NAGOURNEY

MIAMI — For Senator John McCain, it was not supposed to be this way. From a commanding lead last spring, in a state where Senator Barack Obama did not campaign in the primaries and only hired a state director in June, Mr. McCain is now locked in a neck-and-neck race for a trove of electoral votes that is vital to his hopes of victory.

His once-close relationship with Gov. Charlie Crist is reportedly strained. And Mr. Obama has blanketed the state with advertising and built a huge get-out-the-vote operation — on vivid display this week in the long lines for early voting. The sight dispirited Republican leaders here.

Even as state Republicans sent up flares over the summer, warning that the Florida of 2008 is not what it was in 2004, Mr. McCain yielded the airwaves to Mr. Obama, focusing his attention, money and energy on other states. Mr. McCain’s campaign waited until Sept. 1 to begin a serious round of advertising.

Mr. McCain clearly could still win the state’s 27 electoral votes. But the battle in Florida is offering — on the widest stage of any of the contested primary states — an object lesson in the disparities in the resources, aggressiveness and political cunning that Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama are taking to contests across the country.

It is a case study of the troubles of the McCain campaign, the problems of its own making as well as those caused by forces beyond the campaign’s control, including a deeply troubled economy that is sharply driving up home foreclosures in many areas of the state. And it provides vivid evidence of the Obama campaign’s success in using its money and organizational skills to put Republicans on the defensive in once-safe states.

“He has the best political organization for a presidential campaign that I have ever seen here,” Tom Slade, a former state Republican chairman, said of Mr. Obama. “Bar none. He has run a phenomenally good campaign.”

Mr. Obama’s huge financial advantage has turned out to be more lopsided here than in any of the other contested states, displaying, in an outsized way, what Mr. McCain is facing in states like Colorado and Indiana.

For the week that ended Thursday, Mr. Obama spent $4.2 million on advertisements, compared with $1 million by Mr. McCain, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, an independent group that monitors campaign advertising. It was almost impossible to turn on a television this week without seeing an Obama advertisement showing Mr. McCain saying he had voted with President Bush “90 percent of the time.”

Mr. Obama’s campaign moved to exploit this state’s increasingly popular, and relatively new, early voting program in a way Mr. McCain did not. He came here for two days this week — as did Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton — using high-profile appearances to hand out literature and urge supporters who turned out to vote, often right up the street from the rally. The result could be seen in long lines of people at early voting sites.

Mr. McCain’s advisers said they had put far less effort into the early voting program, instead sticking with what has worked for Florida Republicans for a decade: building up their margin with absentee ballots. But several Republicans said they were afraid that emphasis was missing the way voting behavior is changing here.

Mr. Obama has used sophisticated measures here to find and register new supporters. And Florida statistics this week, which sent a shiver of fear through Republicans, attest to his success: Democrats now have a 660,000 edge in voter registration over Republicans in the state, compared with a Democratic advantage of 280,000 voters in 2006.

Buzz Jacobs, the southeast regional manager of Mr. McCain’s campaign, suggested that Democrats would have trouble getting all those new voters to the polls. “They traditionally have a better voter registration system, and we have a better turnout operation,” he said.

But even several state Republicans said they saw evidence that Mr. Obama was bringing new and highly effective methods to the state to find voters and turn them out.

“I’ve gotten seven calls from live Obama volunteers — and the reason I’m getting calls is because I signed up on their Web site to get notifications from their campaign,” said Sally Bradshaw, a Republican who was a senior political adviser to Jeb Bush, the former governor.

Ms. Bradshaw, who supported Mitt Romney in the primary, had signed up for the list to keep informed about a rival. “I haven’t received any McCain calls,” she said.

Mr. McCain is in this spot today in part because of the conclusion by his campaign this summer that Florida, if competitive, was not as tough as it once was, and that there were more pressing states. Mr. Bush won here by five percentage points in 2004. The Democratic Party had earned months of bad publicity by pressuring its presidential candidates not to campaign in the state before its primary because Florida scheduled its vote earlier than party rules allowed.

Political history suggested that Mr. Obama, as an African-American, would have trouble winning support from two of the state’s key constituencies: Hispanics and Jews. And this is the state of one of Mr. McCain’s great primary triumphs: His decisive victory here in January effectively handed him his party’s nomination.

Mr. McCain’s advisers decided to focus on other states, limiting spending in a very expensive state. His chief strategist, Steve Schmidt, said he was not surprised to see things get tight, particularly as the housing market collapsed here, putting the economy front and center. “We always suspected that would happen,” he said.

The developments have forced Mr. McCain’s campaign to devote precious candidate time and dwindling resources here in the final days of the campaign, at a time when Mr. McCain is facing pressure to shore up his position in other states Mr. Bush won in 2004. He spent a day here on Thursday traveling the state, and will be back next week; Gov. Sarah Palin, his running mate, will be here Sunday.

“It was a strategic error on their part,” said Mr. Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe.

Here as in much of the country, there have been strains between the local Republican organization and the McCain campaign about how to run in the state. Until Thursday, Mr. Crist, a Republican whom Mr. McCain said he had considered for the vice-presidential slot on the ticket, kept what appeared to be a definite distance from the McCain campaign, and made remarks — including one disputing Mr. McCain’s contention that the voting process here was subject to fraud — that were clearly unhelpful to Mr. McCain.

In an interview, Mr. Crist disputed the notion that he was anything but whole-hearted in his support for Mr. McCain, and noted that he was accompanying him on a trip he was doing across Florida this week.

“I really don’t know what that’s derived from,” Mr. Crist said. “I’m doing everything I possibly can. I’m excited about his candidacy. I love the guy.”

Still, Mr. Crist’s associates said he had been irked that after everything he had done for Mr. McCain — many Republicans think he would not have won Florida, and thus the nomination, without the last-minute endorsement of Mr. Crist — the McCain campaign, at the last minute, had refused to broadcast a seven-minute video introduction he had prepared for the convention.

From a more pragmatic point of view, Mr. Crist’s associates said he was concerned about becoming too closely identified with Mr. McCain’s campaign, worried that he would hurt his own standing with what one aide described as “Crist-Obama voters.”

Some leaders said they had been stymied in their efforts to get help from the McCain campaign, though they said that was now beginning to change.

“I did have and do have a frustration about getting people here to keep South Florida in the thick of things,” said Chip LaMarca, the Republican chairman from Broward County. “We had numerous telephone conversations and conference calls. We look forward to having more support here.”

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr Predicts McCain Will Lose in Georgia

ATLANTA, GA – "Senator John McCain will not win Georgia," predicts Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party nominee for president. "His shrinking poll numbers are an indication that McCain is losing touch with the American public as we get closer to November 4th."

"Sen. McCain never connected with the fiscal conservatives in Georgia," says Barr. "His lack of a principled stand on issues such as reducing the size of government and cutting spending bothers Georgia voters. Sen. McCain can't say with a straight face he will not raise taxes or increase government spending, given his support for such extremely expensive federal government programs like the recent massive bailouts for Wall Street. Clearly, McCain has failed to attract the hearts and support of Georgia voters."

"Sen. Obama will not so much win Georgia, as Sen. McCain will lose the state," Barr adds.

"Georgia voters looking for a candidate who truly believes in limiting the size of government and reducing taxes should vote for Bob Barr and the Libertarian Party," says Barr.

Libertarian Party presidential candidate Bob Barr represented the 7th District of Georgia in the U. S. House of Representatives from 1995 to 2003. Barr's name will appear before 95 percent of Americans when the vote on Election Day – more than any other third-party or independent candidate.

http://www.bobbarr2008.com/press/press-releases/169/barr-predicts-mccain-will-lose-in-georgia/

Obama debuts new 2 minute ad to air in battleground states:

I've heard today, Obama, who was in Nevada talking about how McCain is trying to distance himself from Bush, and refers to McCain's quote "I've voted with Bush 90 per cent of the time" (remember there is one ad in which Obama shows the clip). Anyway, Obama says, "yea, he really stuck it to Bush 10 per cent of the time." Great line.


TIS