You know ... I never thought about that before but now that you mention it ... yes, perhaps Fredo DID know it was going to be a hit. My 'clue' to this is the fact that he starts right off by saying to Michael that he *swears* he didn't know it was going to be a hit. Ever notice when people are guilty, they swear and swear and swear that they are innocent, trying to make themselves seem more credible? ... Like when Michael confronts Carlo, and he 'swears on the life of his kids' ... heh. My guess is that if Fredo were truly innocent, he would have just said so. No elaboration needed on Fredo's part ... {just my 2 cents}