The Sopranos was fiction, right? It ended as it ended.

I also believe Tony was whacked, and the reason was most likely Carlo. Remember, he was going to flip, and that could've triggered a domino effect that would've ended up hurting the New York bosses. What if Carlo's testimony was so damning that it made Tony himself flip? Gangsters don't generally like to leave stuff like that to chance. If I was the New York boss and I heard that a high ranking NJ guy was flipping, I'd start cutting all ties too, starting with Tony, the biggest tie.

(Phil setting up the hit)It's extremely possible if it was on the same day.(Phils death and Tonys family night out.) Phil and Butch are speaking on the phone when Butch suggests reaching out. He says sorry your breaking up, now we well know that Phil could still hear Butch, but just like the guy that took the food from his plate, Butch has now offended Phil. Phil is the type to kill his own family if he felt betrayed enough. (Vito) It's extremely possible when you think about it.
Especailly if the man was from Italy, as the orders go through a middle man and are not negotiated directly.

Eugene Pontecorvo wore a Members Only jacket when he whacked a guy in a restaraunt in the first episode of season 6.

A guy in a Members Only jacket is hanging around Tony before the blackness.

In addition, I think a lot of Tony's paranoia was based on the decisions that his children were making, as I would describe Carm and Tony as content with the way the children were turning out, and not happy. They were content, because things could have been infinitely worse after the NY/NJ war and AJ's contrived attempt at suicide. But in fact, their worst fears were coming true with their children as Meadow was looking to marry the son of one of Tony's associates. Are we to believe that she and Jason Parisi were truly going to become civil rights attorneys, or would they turn their legal efforts to helping 'the family'?

But it was AJ's path that was turning the most ominous. After a shallow attempt at suicide, he does a complete 180 (per usual) and decides to join the army. But then, after Tony AND Carmela present a bogus job in the 'film' industry with Carmine Jr., and talk of Tony investing in a future night club, AJ completely drops the Army idea in a split second. In his last scene, before the final supper, when he goes to pick up his girlfriend from school in his new BMW, notice the absence of color in that scene--it has a very 1920's German Expressionism eerieness to it--I think it's synonymous with AJ and his new nihlist pal, who are completely devoid of any real emotion or life at that point. Life really means nothing to AJ b/c he has been given everything by his father (the new car, after the previous one caught fire), which is precisely what Tony told Melfi many times that he didn't want for his son. At the last supper, AJ tells Tony and Carm how much of a phony, artificial job he has with Carmine, Jr. to which Carmela replies, in her typical suburban-mom rhetoric, "You may not know this, young man, but you are gaining valuabe contacts" to which AJ casually shrugs off and quips with his now infamous "Remember the good times, right?" A tell-tale sign that the times at hand were not so good. AJ certainly wouldn't have been able to escape the mafia life if he spent his career operating a night club financed by 'waste management' funds.

Of course, I think Tony's death would have changed all of that. Meadow would have dropped Jason; AJ loses his bogus job with Carmine Jr., and upon his father's death, finally gains a meaning and understanding of life that Tony desperately wanted him to find.


...Thoughts?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKYNXo-jUBo

Season 6I Opener. The song forecasts a lot. Ray being a rat. The word death is mentioned and shows a Train and then Bobby. Meadow is called Guardian Angel and 3rd one out.

Is Meadow being late what allows Tony to get whacked?

For what it's worth, one of the scenarios Sammy Gravano and John Gotti considered for killing Paul Castellano was to assassinate Paul in a diner he always ate at. Paul's booth was near the men's room, so their plan was to send in someone Paul didn't know, have him walk into the men's room, and then come out shooting. Sound familiar?

Could be a coincidence, but it's obvious from the show that they took a lot of inspiration from real mob stories.

I'm not sure Tony was in fact killed in the end, although it gives you the impression he was. I personally think it's 50/50.

But to add a valid argument to a possible reason for it: you can't just get away with killing a "boss", especially one of the major New York families. Not even if you're a boss from New Jersey.

It doesn't have to be Butchie who gave the order. I agree that it is unlikely the order came from. But it is likely it came from the other families on the Commission. What signal would it give to others that you can get away with killing a boss? From their perspective, they had to make an example and Tony was a rotten apple that had to go. The best solution would have been to make a clean sweep after all the chaos, which Tony was partly responsible for.

And it's also plausible the guy could have been hired by Phill when he was still alive. Something equivalent also happens in Road to Perdition.