He probably would be TIS if he ran as an independent. But his posture, his demeanor even when he's saying something relatively inconsequential is aggressive, too sggressive for most of us especially when it's seen side by side with someone like Romney or Obama.

new Rasmussen poll has Romney and Obama tied. Why is this important? Because Rasmussen is the GOP's favorite poll, which incidentally compared to other polls has a more white, conservative older sample. (You know, a place you would expect Romney to clean up with an easy layup?)

Meanwhile a CBS poll on the GOP primary has Cain leading at 18%, followed by Mittens and Newt each at 15%. A statistical tie.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/updates/1821

EDIT - the full CBS poll:

Cain- 18%
Romney- 15%
Gingrich- 15%
Perry- 8%
Paul- 5%
Bachman- 4%
Santorum- 2%
Huntsman- 1%

Someone Else- 14%
Undecided- 17%

The number undecided is just about the same percentage as the front runner no?



TIS

Victor Hanson is actually a relatively decent classical historian. But as a political scientist or sociologist he's an abject failure. He has no ability to speak on what is "genuinely black". So many conservatives go there and seemingly have no interest or concern as to how truly offensive that is.

Quiet as its kept since about 1992, the Jewish vote has broken close to 80% Democratic in every Presidential election-even before that with a few exceptions it was usually at least 60-80% Democratic. But can we imagine Republicans telling Jewish voters that they need to get off the "Democratic Death Camps" or that this person or that person is "inauthentically Jewish" ? To ask the question is to answer it.

A black conservative who actually knows Cain has a very good piece about why modern conservatives stay losing among black voters. You can read it here. And it doesn't have ANYTHING to do with southern cadences or darker complexions. How moronic.

I guess Neocons don't subscribe to the one drop rule.

Hanson is actually an otherwisw bright guy. That's the scary thing, they're not ALL stupid.

If we're going to put any stock in the polls, then you have to consider how Cain is in an absolute tailspin with women voters (especially after the Pelosi remarks).

It will be Romney. Whether or not it's even close in the general election depends on whether or not the far righties decide to back him (and I don't think they will). If Romney ends up getting the support of, say, a Rush Limbaugh, then it might get interesting. But he'll still lose.

With regard to Cain, my feelings are, I don't care about his sex life. I didn't care about Clinton's sex life either. I cared that he lied under oath. Cain's indiscretions are his wife's problem. Now, if he's lying about it...that's our problem. We don't need another lying douchebag in the White House, that's for sure.
That being said, what exactly passes for sexual harrassment these days is silly. Cain is married and is in some deep shit with his wife, no doubt. But flirting, is hardly sexual harrassment. Sexual assault is a crime, but supposedly that's not what happened here. Each woman claims being hit on and rejecting him, and it never went any farther than that, and that no meant no. That's not harrassment, imo. That's the nature of the beast.

Yes, it's morally wrong, but again, if that's all it was, it's not worth him dropping out over and as long as i'm not his wife, I could give a shit care less. If he's LYING about the facts now, then I have a problem.

Yeah, I think that sums it up perfectly, Carmela. And if he's lying, he'll be found out. That's the nature of the political beast today.

I mean, let's be honest. If John or Bobby Kennedy were in the public eye during today's 24 hour media, they'd be toast. God never made two bigger whoremongers.

Interesting.



I'll post if I find it, but I read a poll result that Mittens has only 45% approval rating among GOPers.

I also wonder too about that failed Personhood Amendment. Romney has done his best to run away from that extremist Pro-Life issue like the plague, and why wouldn't he? A bill that would ban IVF and most contraception? If Mississippi can't pass that, it surely won't pass anywhere else. Yet its going on the ballot in '12 in major battleground states like Florida.

I could see the White House paint Romney as a pro-life extremist, being in support of the Personhood Amendment. Mittens would inevitbly deny (not easy since Romney's flip-flop reputation has gotten the best of him), but then have to delicately dance with that very pro-life base of his: Please vote for me, even though I don't support your current celebre cause.

Didn't help that his unveiled medicare/social security reform plan is almost a mirror of the publicly-despised Ryan plan. Raising the enrollment age and cutting funds may be necessary to reform that system, but try selling that to the public in an election.

Of course, its a whole year away.

EDIT - GOP Insider claims Mittens has Iowa in the bag.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/20...op-insider.html

Apparently Cain's fundraising has gone way up since the last debate, even if new comments like this might not help his female polling.



http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/20...anita-hill.html

There is a NYT Sunday magazine article about Cain that makes for some entertaining reading.

It was originally published online here.

Great article by Carl Hiaasen in today's Miami Herald.

GOP laff-fest coming soon to our state
By CARL HIAASEN, The Miami Herald

When Florida’s Republican 2012 presidential primary was moved up to Jan. 31, the reaction was mixed.

Some voters were glad to getting past it sooner than later. Others were dismayed that the holiday season would be polluted by vicious campaign commercials and distracting barnstorm visits from candidates.

Now it’s clear that many of us underestimated the redemptive entertainment value of the GOP race. Floridians are in need of a good laugh, and this particular ensemble will deliver plenty of those.

Rick Perry, the Texas governor, spent last week denying that he was drunk or high when he gave a speech punctuated by odd giggles and twitches in New Hampshire.

The video has become a YouTube sensation, and it’s hilarious stuff — at least until you consider that this goober might someday have his finger on the button that controls America’s nuclear arsenal.

In the governor’s defense, his campaign staff said that Perry was simply being “passionate” in front of the New Hampshire crowd.

Jerry Garcia liked to perform in a passionate state, too. Before he went onstage with the Grateful Dead, he’d go straight to his dressing room and drop some heavy passion.

After that weird speech, Perry’s strategic mistake was claiming to be straight when it happened. He should have just said, “Yeah, OK, I had a few beers.” Or even, “Shoot, I must’ve accidentally popped a Xanax instead of my Lipitor.”

Then people would have thought: Oh, that explains it.

But the possibility that he was totally sober isn’t quite as funny. In fact, it’s semi-terrifying.

This isn’t the sergeant-at-arms of your local Kiwanis Club, who’s nervous about speaking in public. This is a career politician who wants to be the freaking commander-in-chief of the United States.

With Perry polling only slightly ahead of Dr. Conrad Murray, the New Hampshire debacle should have sunk his hopes for the White House. No way. The Texan will be rolling full steam into Florida, and for that we have Herman Cain to thank.

Last week it was revealed that the pizza king-turned-frontrunner had been twice formally named in sexual-harassment complaints when he was head of the National Restaurant Association. (There was a time in this great nation’s history when a background in franchise-food services wasn’t considered a springboard to the U.S. presidency, but this is a new day.)

Cain denied the damaging charges and accused his rival Perry of leaking the information to the press. Things can only get uglier between now and January, which means Floridians can look forward to a blaring, venomous, low-class campaign.

The trick is to not to get depressed, but rather to enjoy the show for what it is.

Michele Bachmann will be here, and God only knows what will come out of her mouth. Don’t be surprised if she confuses the Seminole tribe with the Apaches.

And then there’s under-sedated Rick Santorum, moldy Newt Gingrich, invisible Jon Huntsman and the dependably amusing Ron Paul, who hovers like a benign but addled Yoda on the fringe of every debate.

The race is Mitt Romney’s to win. All he has to do is appear halfway sane, which should be easy considering the competition.

Romney’s biggest hurdle will be trying to explain his pandemic flip-flopping, and that might prove impossible. His best shot at victory is to stick with two basic talking points:

1. Obama’s a terrible president.

2. I’ll be a terrific president.

As Cain and Perry stumble, a Romney win is looking like a done deal. However, Florida is a land of unpleasant surprises, where frontrunners can crash and burn.

Ask Gary Hart, whose bid for the Democratic nomination began unraveling with his antics aboard a Miami yacht called Monkey Business in 1987. Less titillating but equally final was the collapse of Rudy Giuliani during the last presidential campaign.

The former New York mayor staked everything on winning Florida, and he virtually camped out here for weeks. But the more stump speeches he gave and the more hands he shook, the lower he dropped in the polls. To know Rudy was to lose interest.

As a result, John McCain captured the state, and ultimately the Republican nomination.

Romney is less prickly than Giuliani and he definitely has better hair, no small advantage in national politics. His advisers will coach him to stand tall, stay cool and avoid getting dragged into the mud pit with Cain, Perry and the others.

However, the mud pit is where all the fun happens. That’s why so many TV viewers are watching the GOP debates, waiting for somebody to melt down or fly into orbit.

People say they want civility in politics but that’s a pipe dream. The presidential campaign is way too long and silly.

Being connoisseurs of the absurd, Floridians should welcome the candidates as fountains of comic relief. For voters here, the road to the primary will be difficult to endure without a sense of humor, or 50 milligrams of “passion.”

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/11/05/2487579/gop-laff-fest-coming-soon-to-our.html#ixzz1dcHzwNSE

I hardly ever even use my cell phone but this is simply too funny to me at least not to have as my new ringtone.

Herman Cain Excuse Me Ringtone

New CNN Poll: Romney leads at 24%, followed by Newt at 22%. Cain has fallen to 14%.

newt at 22%?

Yes our boy Newt.

Harold Bloom wrote an editorial on Romney, Mormonism and religion that ran in Sunday NYT.



Breakthrough

This is funny.

I have been on both sides of the interview table as have many here I am sure.
What happened with Mr. Cain was obviously someone who wasn't ready for the question, didn't know the answer and was trying desperately to pull the "correct" answer from the interviewer. When that didn't work he fell back on tried and true answers, that really didn't have much to do with the question.

I've seen interview responses like that. The correct answer, instead of trying to bs people is to say "I don't know" and move on. Unfortunately for Cain, saying "I don't know" is not really an acceptable answer for a presidential candidate, especially one that is as full of himself as he is. The interviewer is RARELY fooled by attempts to bs, especially ones as pathetic as Cain's.

This is funny of course but it shows what happens when people aren't prepared AND when people only engage with one side of the political spectrum. Even if you despise some people's POV you should at least be familiar with their arguments so that you can debunk them. Cain has clearly only one note to play "It's all Obama's fault". That's what happens when you only listen to one side-in Cain's case -conservative talk radio.

Cain must be a HORRIBLE poker player. I would love to play against him. He has so many "tells" when he's nervous or lying-remarkably increased blinking rate, jaw tightening, looking up and away, repeating what was just said to him. Classic.

Yea, he probably would have 3 "9s" up his sleeve somewhere. Couldn't resist.


TIS

Rick Perry stated that as President he would cut the pay of members of Congress by half (to $80-90,000 annually) and that of the President (to $200,000). He also states that he will reduce the tenure to just a few years at a time.

Of course, it irritates the hell out of me when candidates state proposals as if there are not two other branches of government. Presidents cannot effect either of the abovecited proposals without the approval of Congress. That affecting judges would require a Constitutional amendment.

Such proposals are vacuous and greatly reduce my respect for a candidate.

URBANDALE, Iowa -- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich acknowledged an extended consulting relationship with mortgage giant Freddie Mac, though he said he couldn't verify just how much he or his firm received in fees.

Gingrich denied having lobbied on behalf of the mortgage giant, but said his staff was looking into a Bloomberg News report that said Gingrich "made between $1.6 and $1.8 million in consulting fees" in his work for Freddie Mac between 1999 and 2008.

This does however boast Perry's efforts to be elected to the SCOTUS.

Why Newt could succede?



http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/15/the-second-coming-of-gingrich/

Anyone think Newt would take the two spot under Romney?

I think he'd take whatever he could get. Btw, does he speak Cuban?

Better question: Why would Mitt offer it to him?

I know '04 and '08 have spoiled us, but otherwise historically nominees don't pick their defeated primary rivals as running mates.

Actually, more and more, I wonder if the hypothetical GOP '12 ticket already speculated here in this thread will be a repeat of '08 where the base is more excited by the VP pick than the actual guy running for President.

Perry funds dry up after gaffes and dip in polls

http://blog.chron.com/rickperry/2011/11/perry-funds-dry-up-after-gaffes-and-dip-in-polls/