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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#621480
11/25/11 10:36 AM
11/25/11 10:36 AM
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 5,325
MI
Lilo
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 5,325
MI
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There was an interesting C-SPAN discussion here about the 2012 election and the impact of changing demographics on previous elections and the upcoming one. This is long (90 minutes) but I think it was worthwhile. My take is that racist or not one can't really expect the Republican Party to lead the cheerleading for allowing in more new voters that over time will tend to vote Democratic. It's suicidal for the Party. If Republicans could somehow bring in millions of reliably Republican voters, they'd be the ones talking about the need for amnesty while Democrats, angrily watching blue states turn purple, would have a different song to sing. The panel also discussed how the traditional voting patterns of Republicans/Democrats have changed-mostly among whites. The Republicans win big among whites without a college education and/or working class while the Democrats do better among middle class and college educated whites. 2012 could be a high point election for Republicans as there is no guarantee that thanks to a changing electorate that by 2020 or even 2016 several previously "Red" states won't be in play. There's not an easy way to see how this plays itself out. But there are gonna be some serious fights over Social Security and school funding over the next 2-3 decades the likes of which we haven't seen before. But it still all comes down the economy for 2012. The 2010 mid term showed that the Democrats have an Achilles Heel among whites, who were motivated by frustration by the economy. The overreach by Republicans on such things as public unions, contraceptives and Planned Parenthood may play well with some of their base but it turns off the white independents. Time will tell.
"When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives."
Winter is Coming
Now this is the Law of the Jungle—as old and as true as the sky; And the wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the wolf that shall break it must die.
As the creeper that girdles the tree-trunk, the Law runneth forward and back; For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Lilo]
#621496
11/25/11 02:34 PM
11/25/11 02:34 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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My take is that racist or not one can't really expect the Republican Party to lead the cheerleading for allowing in more new voters that over time will tend to vote Democratic. It's suicidal for the Party. If Republicans could somehow bring in millions of reliably Republican voters, they'd be the ones talking about the need for amnesty while Democrats, angrily watching blue states turn purple, would have a different song to sing.
Their only option, minus total issue capitulation, would have to try to split the hispanic vote. Or more specifically, the Mexican/Latin American vote. Not as tout as they once were, but Cuban-Americans are still Republican-faithful. If Dubya had somehow pulled off immigration reform and owned that issue, I truely believe the GOP could've at the very least created that permanent split. But alas his party's wise and tolerant base murdered it, and now they'll pay for it long term. Reminds me of Stephen Ambrose's book on Richard Nixon, how while as Vice-President, Nixon saw an electoral opening for the GOP after Brown V. Board of Education and did his damn best to try to convince the rank and file to embrace desegregation (even if at least only in public) and split the black vote from the Democrats. As much as FDR had taken them away from the party of Lincoln. (People forget that Eisenhower in '56 won 39% of the black vote.) Nixon was ignored, and thus the Democrats were allowed to own that issue, even though it was the racist useless Southern Democrats who pretty much held Jim Crow down for over a century. (Of course they became Republicans but nevermind.)
The panel also discussed how the traditional voting patterns of Republicans/Democrats have changed-mostly among whites. The Republicans win big among whites without a college education and/or working class while the Democrats do better among middle class and college educated whites.
Yeah I've noticed that reversal of support. Difference between then and now is that both bases now vote against their own political interests. Especially poor Republicans advocating tax cuts for the super wealthy.
2012 could be a high point election for Republicans as there is no guarantee that thanks to a changing electorate that by 2020 or even 2016 several previously "Red" states won't be in play. There's not an easy way to see how this plays itself out. But there are gonna be some serious fights over Social Security and school funding over the next 2-3 decades the likes of which we haven't seen before. But it still all comes down the economy for 2012.
The 2010 mid term showed that the Democrats have an Achilles Heel among whites, who were motivated by frustration by the economy. The overreach by Republicans on such things as public unions, contraceptives and Planned Parenthood may play well with some of their base but it turns off the white independents. Time will tell.
At the very least, you would agree that those targets at best only fire up the Democratic base. (Especially that retarded IVF ban meme which apparently will hit several state ballots next year, including Florida.) Of course the big polling news I've got today will make this even more interesting.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#621524
11/25/11 08:10 PM
11/25/11 08:10 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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Romney is still facing a trust deficit"He's not a person we could trust to lead our country," said Angela Cesar, a 41-year-old Republican from Ypsilanti, Mich., who said Romney had changed his position on too many issues. "He's going to be listening to voices outside. I want someone who can hear his own voice - a clear voice."
Steve Holroyd, a 54-year-old chef from Rye, N.H., was initially attracted to Romney's candidacy, but now describes him as evasive: "The more I listen to him, the more he just kind of flip-flops and doesn't know where he stands on anything." But it matters to voters like Leonard Silvani, a 58-year-old Republican from Hampton, N.H. Even though he is most concerned about the economy, Silvani said, the shift by Romney on a core issue like abortion is a warning flag.
"It's telling you that what he's saying and what he does aren't necessarily the same thing," he said. "And that makes me leery."
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#621909
11/27/11 11:20 PM
11/27/11 11:20 PM
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 5,325
MI
Lilo
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 5,325
MI
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Gingrich is just a pompous putz who thinks he's a macher.  He just loves to tell everyone what a smart man he is. IMO he's a gasbag who will soon fall back in the polls, like every other "not Romney".
"When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives."
Winter is Coming
Now this is the Law of the Jungle—as old and as true as the sky; And the wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the wolf that shall break it must die.
As the creeper that girdles the tree-trunk, the Law runneth forward and back; For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Lilo]
#621912
11/27/11 11:38 PM
11/27/11 11:38 PM
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Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 3,746
BAM_233
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 3,746
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Gingrich is just a pompous putz who thinks he's a macher. He just loves to tell everyone what a smart man he is. IMO he's a gasbag who will soon fall back in the polls, like every other "not Romney". nobody should vote for a fredo
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#621917
11/28/11 12:39 AM
11/28/11 12:39 AM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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Clinton praises Newt“He’s articulate and he tries to think of a conservative version of an idea that will solve a legitimate problem,” Clinton told Newsmax in the exclusive interview this week, by way of explaining the Gingrich resurgence...
Clinton continued: “For example, I watched the national security debate last night. And Newt said two things that would make an independent voter say, ‘Well, I gotta consider that.’
“He said, ‘OK, I don’t want to legitimize immigrants who came here undocumented, illegally.’ On the other hand, a lot of those people have been here for years, they worked hard, they paid taxes, they’ve got kids in the schools, they’re not criminals, we’re going to have a hard time sending them all home, there’s millions of them. So, I’d like to have a process where they could be here legally but not have a path to citizenship. That sort of splits the difference between the immigration reforms proposed by President Bush and President Obama, which would give a path to citizenship, and would be a version of what President Reagan did.”
Clinton was impressed that Gingrich devised a “red card” system that would be used to stop normalizing the immigration status of illegals if efforts to control the border proved ineffective.
“That was a thoughtful response,” Clinton said.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#622090
11/29/11 12:44 AM
11/29/11 12:44 AM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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I called this meme first. Either I'm that insightful, or it's that damn obvious. Did Newt entrap Romney on Immigration?But more important, Newt’s statement caused the Romney campaign to engage in hyperbole, accusing Newt of wanting amnesty for 10 million people. This exposed key weaknesses in Romney’s claim to the presidency.
First, Romney has been in favor of a pathway to citizenship for illegals, which is more than Newt proposed at the debate which was limited to deportation policy. Romney ran to the right, but it was not credible. This reminded everyone of Romney’s “core” weakness.
Second, and equally important, Romney has no answer on deportation policy. This resulted in the ”Abbott and Costello” routine I highlighted yesterday, in which Romney’s spokesperson could not or would not say that Romney would deport everyone here illegally, even those brought here as young children. While attacking the humanitarian standards on deportation policy proposed by Newt, Romney had no alternative. Not a good showing.
In the end, Newt was shown to be someone willing to make hard choices even if it cost him votes and to do so with realism. Romney was shown to be just the opposite.
It dont’ know if Newt set a trap. But the Romney campaign found itself stuck, either way. Newt comes across looking presidential, Romney comes across looking like a politician.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: The Italian Stallionette]
#622130
11/29/11 01:20 PM
11/29/11 01:20 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 22,902
New York
SC
Consigliere
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Consigliere
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 22,902
New York
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Unconfirmed reports that Herman Cain is "reassessing" his campaign. Ya think? That's a politician's way to say he got caught with his hand in the cookie jar.... some of those cookies didn't look like they were worth it.
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