Oli, the reason I did the timeline for the novel was that the "little bird" in the film was Sonny's car radio playing the Dodgers/Giants final playoff game in October 1951. My reason for doing the timeline was my belief that the Five Families War couldn't have gone on for nearly five years--thus Michael had to have returned from Sicily way before that. Also, Sonny would have been driving a 10-year-old car when he got whacked.

I made a case for Michael's early return based on quotes from the novel, putting his return either in late '46 or early '47, in several scenarios. But then you pointed out that, if Michael did return that early, he'd have had to be Vito's apprentice for eight or nine years, given that Vito died in 1955 (film). That would be as unlikely as my original premise: that the war couldn't have lasted nearly five years.

All I can say is what you and I said earlier in this thread: it's impossible to reconstruct a definitive timeline for either the films or the novel. And thank you very much, Mario Puzo, for giving us this opportunity to bang our heads against the wall.