The "professional" assasins did a poor job IF it was really their intent to kill and not to scare badly the Don. I have to wrap my mind around the possible imcompetence of so-called professionals directed by a head of crime syndicate...
It had to be Fredo, as implausible as that is. Also doing a poor job was Michael's security people. How did theyget in, set up, shoot and then get killed without Michael or Tom knowing who killed them?