As we see in the movie and novel, Apollonia meets her untimely end via car bomb at the hands of Fabrizzio. The novel elaborates on this subject with Barzini being complicit in hiring Fabrizzio to carry out the job. At first, we're led to believe that Michael was the intended target of the bomb...but was he really?

In the movie, we see the car bombing scene just before the meeting of the Dons where Vito looks to stop the inter-family war and allow Michael to come home safely. Vito directs Tom to arrange the meeting of the Dons in NY, Chicago and the west coast in the scene before cutting back to Sicily. These arrangements, plus Sonny's funeral, would take several days to weeks to complete. The Dons have to clear time in their schedules, travel to NY, Bocchicchio hostages have to be delivered in their place. All of that takes time. Barzini would've had plenty of time to execute his plan in Sicily.

Barzini would've likely deduced beforehand that Vito called the meeting with a view to ending the war and bringing his son back home. Fredo wasn't suitable for the Donship, or Vito would've appointed him already. Sonny was dead (heh), so Barzini would conclude that Vito wanted Michael back with a view of making him the new Don. However, pre-emptively whacking Michael in Sicily would've been construed by Vito as an act of war and further treachery. Such an act could've provoked Vito to all out war. If Vito deduced at the meeting that Barzini was behind the treachery against himself and Sonny, he would likewise conclude the same if Michael turned up dead. Vito likely had that theory in mind before the meeting anyway. Hence his 'warning' at the meeting.

How does Barzini come out ahead? Simple: break Michael. He knows that he can't kill Michael outright, at least not yet. Michael has to come back to NY and take the Donship of the Corleone family. He can, however, break him inside and make him lose his spirit. Thus, the Corleones would be easy pickings. The way to do that: kill his love right in front of him. Apollonia was the real target all along. An infamia, to target one's innocent family, but would that really concern Barzini?

In Sicily at Tommasino's compound, Michael speaks to Fabrizzio and orders him to get the car. Fabrizzio makes the point of asking if Michael is driving himself and if his wife is going with him, to which Michael says that he wants Fabrizzio to take her to her father's house temporarily. Fabrizzio gets the car, which is likely kept in a garage and thus the perfect place to install the bomb. He couldn't do it in the open courtyard, lest he be caught.

Fabrizzio brings the car out to the courtyard, out in the open and a fair distance from the house. (Why didn't he park the car at the curb of the house instead of so far away?) Apollonia is most likely out in the courtyard already wandering the grounds when she sees the car come out. We know how fascinated she is with driving by now. At this point, Fabrizzio would cut the engine, arm the bomb and get out. Since Calo already knows that Apollonia is in the car waiting and Fabrizzio is just exiting the compound just as Michael comes down, Fabrizzio knows fully well that she's in the car. She probably got in the car as Fabrizzio was getting out.

The trouble is, Fabrizzio had orders from Michael to take Apollonia to her father's house himself. If the bomb was for Michael, why was she still in the car waiting for Michael? Why was she not at Fabrizzio's side on her way to her father's? She would've been the perfect alibi against suspicion when Michael was killed. The two of them could've been out of the compound and halfway to the Vitelli home when the car exploded. Instead, he was standing there, looking dopey and crazy eyed when Michael came down, only running out when Michael spotted Apollonia.

Why was he still there? I believe that he needed to see the car explode with Apollonia inside, see that Michael survived and was there to witness it. All of this to report to Barzini, who would then spirit him out of Sicily and set him up in his pizza shop later on. Certainly, Fabrizzio had ample opportunity beforehand to assassinate Michael if he wished; he was trusted to be alone with Michael whilst carrying a loaded lupara. Do the math.

In short, my overriding theory about this sequence is that Apollonia was the true target of the assassination in Sicily, not Michael. It was Barzini's attempt to break Michael so that he would lose his fighting spirit and make the Corleones easy pickings for his conquest after Vito's demise. The trouble for Barzini was that while he succeeded in breaking Michael's spirit, he also took away Michael's conscience. He helped shape Michael into the Don he would become...and by so doing, engineered his own demise.

Michael told F that A wouldn't be coming with him.

A wanted to show Michael that she could drive

F was on his way out of the compound and only stopped when Michael happened to descend the steps and called out to him: Dove vai?

F probably could not assassinate Michael and escape.

Why break Michael when you could just murder him?

The novel answers many questions.

A very interesting theory, jrp. Thanks for posting it.

But, I agree with Oli for the reasons he stated.

Complicating this a bit is the timing: On learning of Sonny's death, Vito immediately tells Tom to arrange the Commission meeting, yet in the sequence of the film, Michael learns of Sonny's death, then arranges to move to Siracusa, then the car is blown up, no doubt on Barzini's orders. So: did Barzini move on Michael (and/or Apollonia in your theory) in Sicily after being invited to the Commission meeting--to further weaken Vito's bargaining position? Or, perhaps, did Barzini reach out to Fabrizzio before Sonny was killed--and it took that long for Fab to find an opportunity to make his move?

Barzini and the other Dons saw the Commission meeting as the opportunity to get Vito's police and political protection for the drugs trade. If Barz had intended to kill Michael after being invited to the Commission meeting, Vito would never have forgiven him--and that would have been the end of any agreement on drugs. That view supports your view that Apollonia was the target. But, singling out Apollonia would have been very complicated, and as we saw, her presence in the car after the bomb was wired was pure chance.

The tidbit that started this idea growing in my mind was the order that Michael gave to Fabrizzio after he asked if Michael would be driving himself and if his wife would be coming along: "I want you to take her to her father's house until I know things are safe." To me, that implies that the car is for Michael, and Apollonia is to go with Fabrizzio on foot, by burro, whatever he can find.

If Fabrizzio's orders from Barzini were to assassinate Michael, then Michael just handed him the perfect alibi on a silver platter: he was with Apollonia on a journey to the Vitelli home when the car exploded.

It hinges on the time between Vito giving the order to Tom to arrange the commission meeting and the actual meeting itself. Tom would have to coordinate the schedules of multiple Dons as well as allow for travel time for both the Dons and the Bocchicchio hostages. If all of that takes a week, that's plenty of time for Barzini to phone it in to Sicily. Thus, Barzini put his plan into motion after the meeting was called; he surmised that Vito wanted to bring an end to the war and to get his son out of Sicily.

Why would Fabrizzio leave Apollonia in a rigged car if it were intended for Michael, and if she was to go to a different destination within walking distance? Why leave the car parked so far away from the house, particularly with the keys in the ignition and in the presence of a girl who's always super eager to drive? Why did he not get her out of the car and get out of there as quickly as possible after arming the bomb?

Something else too: we learn later in the novel (and a deleted scene from GF2) that Fabrizzio was extracted from Sicily after the assassination and was set up with a pizza shop, courtesy of Barzini. If Michael was the real target of the attempt, Fabrizzio failed miserably. Not only did the bomb get the wrong target, the car was parked too far away to even get Michael in the blast radius. Michael went onto security lockdown at that point, so no further attempts would've been possible. I don't get the impression that Barzini would've rewarded Fabrizzio's failure; I think he would've left Fabrizzio high and dry in Sicily if he had failed his mission like that.

My thought is that Barzini's only move, since he can't whack Michael outright due to the likelihood of Vito declaring war, he moves to break Michael's spirit, to send a message. Strike as close to home as possible.

It's probably more complicated than it first appears. Barzini wouldn't have been able to get to Fabrizzio (and get a bomb) without help from some ally in Sicily. They can't just ignore the shepherd - the allies executed their part of the plan, so he still has to pay off.

Look, FFC's screen play sometimes significantly departs from the novel. The novel makes it clear that A was in the car because she was going to drive it a few feet to show Michael her driving. There's nothing in the novel about F asking Michael if A was going with him. Apparently, either F never expected A to be in the car or he had no qualms about murdering A.

I read over the part of the novel depicting that scene, and I have to offer a rebuttal. Fabrizzio does indeed ask Michael if Apollonia is coming with him. To quote the passage:

"Fabrizzio stood up. His shirt was open, exposing the blue and red lines of the tattoo on his chest. 'Calo is having a cup of coffee in the kitchen,' Fabrizzio said. 'Is your wife coming with you?'"

In the novel, Michael looks upon that question as though Fabrizzio had eyes for Apollonia, though he writes it off. He indicates that she is going to her father's house, though he doesn't directly order Fabrizzio to take her there as he does in the movie.

In the movie, it seems like he makes a point of asking both if Michael is driving himself and if his wife is coming along when he's ordered to get the car. That's what got me to thinking conspiratorily, like why he would need to know if Apollonia is coming with Michael. Why should that even matter to Fabrizzio?

The novel depicts Michael watching Fabrizzio through a window, escaping through the gates, looking back over his shoulder as he did so. The movie shows Michael calling out Fabrizzio as he left. Either way, Fabrizzio knew that the car was parked away from the house (he parked it there himself), that Apollonia was in the car ready to drive up to the curb and Michael was nowhere near it. Why wouldn't he have parked it against the curb himself, so that Michael would be the one to get in and start it?

The resulting novel blast injures Michael, but wasn't enough to kill him; the movie blast causes Michael to dive into a bush, but apparently it isn't close enough to injure him. It seems to me that if he's after Michael with the car bomb, then he's better off in the pizza business. Mad bomber school didn't work out for him.

I fully admit that the theory is 'out there', as it were, but conspiratory thinking and deep analysis to the point of being off the wall sometimes is what I like about this forum.

Just theorizing (others certainly know more about car bombs): maybe he'd have to fidget with something to set the bomb, and he'd have to do that away from the building to avoid detection?

Admittedly, I know little to nothing about car bombs or assassination in general. The closest I ever came to blowing up a car was when I was working on my MG. The battery was behind the passenger seat just in front of the gas tank and fuel pump. I managed to spark the battery really big...while disconnecting it in order to replace the leaky fuel pump. Fun times.

I would imagine that he'd do the bulk of the work while the car was in the garage (the stone hut in the novel), then have a way to activate it when he parked it out in the courtyard. Since Fabrizzio was to retrieve the car from the garage, he's already where he needs to be. When he parks up in the courtyard, he can quickly connect the wires to the ignition switch and get out.

You're right about F, but I hadn't read the novel in awhile. Still, I contend that F meant to murder Michael, not A, but would have murdered A if it was the only way to murder Michael. effort

Since we're citing the novel (often but not always a good bet for helping to resolve ambiguity), consider the following passage when Vito and Michael are conferring after telling Tess and Clem to sit tight (the equivalent of the fishtank scene):

Vito: "I'm surprised, though, that Barzini still made a last try at you. Maybe it was arranged before the peace talk and he couldn't stop it. Are you sure they were not after Don Tommasino?"

Michael said, "That's the way it was supposed to look. And it would have been perfect, even you would never have suspected. Except that I came out alive. I saw Fabrizzio going through the gate, running away."

I wondered about that scene too, Turnbull. Even Tommasino believed that the local hoods in the area were after him...until, he says, they believed Michael was dead. They quit coming after Tommasino (and by extension, Michael/Apollonia) after that. The smokescreen was no longer needed. All of them believed that Fabrizzio meant to kill Michael, and that Apollonia was in the wrong place at the wrong time. That's where I differ.

From Barzini's perspective, Michael was on ice in Sicily. He wasn't going anywhere, nor doing anything, and Barzini apparently had contacts on the ground in Sicily to monitor him. For all intents and purposes, Michael was out of the game entirely. What would be the benefit of Barzini leaving Michael on ice in Sicily, then calling a hit on him before Vito called the meeting? Or calling a hit on him at all? A hit on Michael in Sicily, before or after the meeting call, would have the potential of causing Vito to go to war.

Chronologically in the movie, the hit goes down after Vito gives the order to Tom to contact the other Dons for the meeting. By then, Barzini would know that whacking Michael could cause Vito to declare full out war. Even if Barzini won the war at that point, the Corleone family would be decimated and he would only have the bones left to pick. Not to mention the damage to his own family, and increased heat from the law. I can't see that Barzini would come out ahead in such a scenario.

Between the distance of the car from the villa, Apollonia's known presence in the car and Michael being nowhere near the car at the time of the blast, I can't see any way that Fabrizzio's plan (if he's aiming for Michael) would've been successful. In addition, Fabrizzio was ordered by Michael (in the movie only) to take Apollonia to her father's home. Why was she not by his side as he left instead of in the car?

I think it would be difficult to find a way to pull her out of the car or stop her from getting into the car without revealing that the car that he last touched now had a bomb in it. For Fabrizzio at that moment, it was better to try to get lost in the confusion after the bomb went off than to try to explain how the bomb got into the car.

In the novel, I would agree: Fabrizzio trying to get her away from the car would be suspicious. If Michael sees him trying to take her away, it's game over for Fabrizzio.

In the movie, Fabrizzio would have a good reason to get her away from the car: Michael's orders. He ordered Fabrizzio to take her to her father's home.

You're reading urgency into Michael's instruction that isn't there. He doesn't even know where Apollonia is then. He just tells Fabrizzio to get the car - he doesn't mention Apollonia until Fabrizzio mentions her.

I'm pretty sure he was injured in the blast in the movie, and that he didn't just dive into a bush. It's been a while, but isn't there a deleted scene where Michael is unconscious in bed and he wakes up and says something like, "bring me Fabrizio."

Yes, there is such a deleted scene. Micahel was blown a feet feet; he didn't dive.

It looked like he just took a stage dive into the bushes behind him from my perspective, but I just watched the deleted scene with Michael and Tommasino after the explosion. So, in that way, the novel and the movie are congruent.

As far as Barzini's target actually being Michael, here's a question: what's the percentage in Barzini going after Michael before Vito calls the peace talks? Michael's on ice in Sicily. He's stuck there indefinitely and can't do anything for his family where he is. After Vito calls the peace talks, Barzini would have to know that any action against Michael would be construed by Vito as further treachery and may precipitate full on war.

In the book, the other Dons are all scrutinizing Vito as he speaks at the peace conference, trying to guage how healthy he is. It seems no one has seen him between the day he left the hospital and the day of the conference. For all Brazini knows, by killing Michael he might be decapitating the Corleone Family.

By targeting Michael (and if his role was discovered), Barzini could expect to earn whatever wrath Vito could muster - and if Vito was unhealthy he could even trigger a transfer of power to Clemenza or Tessio, who might be easier to deal with. By targeting Apollonia (and if his role was discovered), Barzini could expect to earn whatever wrath Vito could muster, plus vendetta from Michael, plus a loss of all support from other families, because he targeted a civilian family member. I don't see how that calculus works in favor of targeting Apollonia.

Good analysis Pete. As the novel states, Vito was surprised that B made a last attempt on Michael and M realized that it was meant to look like a hit on Don T.

Very good analysis, mustachepete. That's one avenue I hadn't explored of the scenario. In committing such an infamita, Barzini would definitely risk the loss of support of the other families if they get the idea that he went after Apollonia as a way of breaking Michael. If he was after Apollonia, it was a genius plan as Michael said in the belief that the bomb was meant for him. Not even Vito would've known better. In that case, Michael didn't know better either.

In that scenario, if Barzini succeeds in taking out Michael, that would only leave Fredo as Vito's only remaining biological heir. Vito likely goes to war in that scenario. It makes me think of this: if Vito wants to go to war, would Tessio make the same play with Barzini as he did when Michael was in charge?

Either way, Barzini's tactical error was calling a hit in Sicily and having the attempt made after Vito called the peace talks. If it succeeds (taking out Michael and/or Apollonia) and he gets found out, it's war. If it fails and he's found out, it's vendetta.

I don't think the attempt on Michael was ordered after the meeting of the Dons was set up. I think the hits on Michael and Sonny occurred just a matter of days apart. Sonny was killed, Tom set up the meeting and likely got word to Sicily that Sonny had been killed. When we see Tommasino give Michael the news it could have very well been the day after the toll booth shooting. The car bomb could have been the next day. If that timeline is correct, both hits were in motion BEFORE the meeting. Barzini had to take out both sons because they both would likely have come for revenge. He wasn't worried about Fredo for obvious reasons, but Sonny and/or Michael would have sought vengeance for the attack on their father.

Sure thing “both hits were in motion BEFORE the meeting”
Sonny's murder was the trigger for Vito to call the Peace meeting and to get Michael back to New York

Sonny's hit was pretty much handed to Barzini on a silver platter after Sonny's public beating of Carlo

I believe the hit on Michael would have been in progress for quite awhile as arranging such a hit in Sicily from New York would not have been as easy as Sonny's hit

Barzini and the other Dons would have had to -

• be very discreet in all their enquiries to ensure no word gets back to the Corleones
• find out where Michael was hiding
• Nobody probably knew until Michael's “I am an American hiding in Sicily My name is Michael Corleone There are people who'd pay a lot of money for that information” to Apollonia's father Vitelli thus revealing his identity
• the expensive gifts and the wedding would have attracted publicity as well

Then all bets are off!

Again it may not have been easy to be able to just call off the murder of Michael from New York [within the communication channels available at that time] after Vito's request for the meeting which was soon after Sonny's murder

I also believe the target was Michael
It seems to me Fabrizio was keen to ensure Michael would be the one to drive that car rigged with the bomb

Fabrizio: “Are you driving yourself, Boss?”
Michael: Yes

Fabrizio: “Is your wife coming with you?”
Michael: “No I want you to take her to her father's house till I know things are safe”

Fabrizio is running away after seeing Apollonia in the driver's seat

I rethought this interesting question after Lana reopened the thread:

The most important objective for Barzini and the other Dons was to win the war so they could start doing business again from a stronger position because the Corleones would be in a weaker position. Getting Vito’s police/political protection may have been an important consideration, but the war needed to be won first.

Killing Sonny, the acting Don and street commander, weakened the Corleones and devastated Vito. Although Michael was an unknown factor to them, he showed daring and courage in killing Sol and Mac. He was the obvious next Don Corleone--Vito's last hope. That’s why he—not Appolonia or Don Tommasino—was the target of the car bombing. Fredo wasn’t even a consideration for reasons already stated in this thread. With Sonny and Michael dead, Vito, still weak from his shooting, had no successors and would likely be too physically and emotionally damaged to carry on the war with any effectiveness. He’d have to sue for peace sooner or later.

Barzini and the other Dons could have demanded Vito’s police/political protection as part of a peace treaty with both Sonny and Michael dead. Vito might have refused out of spite or pride, and the war would have continued. But, the Dons would have gambled that he’d settle up, eventually—it would have been too costly, to him and the others he was responsible for, to continue.

Barzini and the others no doubt were pleased when Vito called for a meeting as soon as Sonny was killed. Barzini might thought it prudent to cancel the hit on Michael because Vito had already, in effect, capitulated. But, as others here pointed out, it was too late—when Don Tommasino told Michael that he had to leave subito for Siracusa, he probably meant the next day. And, in any event, Barzini had already ordained Michael’s death as a decisive factor in bringing a greatly weakened Vito to the table.

Certainly Vito would have taken revenge if Michael had been killed after he and the Dons came to terms. But, Michael’s survival actually was a lucky break for the Dons—Vito's overarching, urgent need to bring Michael home safely gave them immediate, total leverage for a quick peace and for obtaining Vito’s protection for drugs on their terms. By their calculation, Michael might or might not have become their nemesis years down the road, but they needed to end the war and get into drugs here and now

Of course TB, it's not unusual for some of us to mix the novel with film. So, I'll do it.

In the novel, Sonny's murder was not intended to win the war for the Five Families; it was intended to stave off their defeat. As the novel also states and as Tom told Sonny, business is starting to open up after the newspapers linked McClusky with the rackets. So, even with Sonny gone, the Five Families would have seen the virtue of letting things continue to calm down. Remember, the Families prepared for the bloody war of revenge that they were sure Vito would unleash on them for Sonny's murder. So, while Sonny's generalship was greatly valued, the Families knew that Vito's generalship was even more valued and they still needed him. Vito was still in the catbird seat.

Two instance of Michael's recklessness

1 Thunderbolt lust spread his identity all over
2 attending New Year Eve party

Barzini and the other Dons at the meeting know, Vito would know they tried to kill Michael

Bruno Tattaglia cancels out Vito's shooting

There is still Sonny's murder and the attempt on Michael's life which killed his wife
I reckon no one was buying the peace talk and that Vito was forgoing the vengeance Everyone was biding their time

Fabrizio was making sure Michael would be the one to drive that car rigged with the bomb but no doubt couldn't do anything to get Apollonia out without raising suspicions

In III, told that Sicily's top assassin, "a man who never fails," is going to kill him, Michael takes Kay and Mary to the opera house--all of them sitting in an open box, together. Idiot!

True enough TB, but afterall they were free tickets.

Wait a minute! Turnbull “Michael takes Kay and Mary to the opera house--all of them sitting in an open box, together” because Vincent, guaranteed their safety

Barzini and the other Dons, in a sense, have already won the war? at least got the upper hand? – There was no retaliation from Vito after Sonny's murder which “weakened the Corleones and devastated Vito”

I am not sure whether “Michael’s survival actually was a lucky break for the Dons” as if Michael had died in the car bomb, I believe Vito becomes irrelevant, a non-entity

My take, for what it is worth!

• Vito with both his Don material [bad and good Dons] sons dead, would probably have handed over what was left of the Corleones to Clemenza and Tessio
• As regards “Vito’s police/political protection” with Vito out of the 'business' the judges and the politicians now in Barzini's pocket
• Barzini and the other Dons “get into drugs here and now”
• money rolling in! for Barzini, the other Dons, the judges and the politicians
• Barzini becomes the Numero Uno Mafia Don
• Vito dies a broken man