The mafia's been on the decline these last couple of decades and seems to be losing power as time goes on.

In 20-30 years where can you see the Five Families? Would they be almost like the other families in Kansas City or LA? Or completely defunct? Or maybe they figured out a way to outsmart the FBI?

I think that really depends on the future of law enforcement, which includes social, political and economic variables that we can only guess at. Obviously, the powers of the federal security agencies have grown considerably since 9/11 and RICO remains a formidable tool in the hands of prosecutors. It's not a good time to be on the wrong side of Uncle Sam, and considering how permissive the American public has been in terms of law and order, I don't see that changing.

Still, considering how deeply ingrained the Five Families are in NYC and the sheer amount of prestige associated with the Mafia, even if a bunch of the families stay weak or get weaker, there is ALWAYS going to be some group of goombahs seeking to style themselves as the inheritors of Lucky Luciano. The fact is that the hierarchy, rules and status that come with the Mafia name and organization bring with them certain benefits that a simple crew of criminals don't have on their own. Obviously, those hierarchies and rules are often bent and broken, as we see today, but as long as The Godfather, Goodfellas, John Gotti and everything else about the Mafia -- fact and fiction -- looms large in the public imagination, there will always be people out there trying to profit from it (even if it is more image than substance).

I suspect there will be two or three families still around but they will be weaker than in the past. I think some unions will get tired of being controlled and will rebel. Law enforcement is getting much more sophisticated and the culture of these young guys is that they just don't want to do time and will rat out anyone to save their asses

Wait, What? LCN stock in America has been on a steady incline, isn't that the general consensus?

Maybe since 9/11 there is less heat on OC. But if anything it just means LCN is just diminishing more slowly

I think you'll still see 5 mob families in New York but, with the ongoing attrition in terms of both quantity and quality,they'll be smaller, less organized, and less disciplined. By that time, you won't have any guys that were made before the 1970's at the absolute earliest. Most of them long after that. Law enforcement pressure may ebb and flow but attrition is constant.

They'll still have bookmaking and loansharking (though possible future legalized sports betting could cut into that). Guys will still be able to make money with drugs, robberies, or some scam. It wouldn't surprise me if their labor racketeering activities are restricted to construction at that point.

Michael Franzese did an interview on CNN a few years back commenting on the status of the current LCN. He said that it probably won't go extinct in his lifetime (he's gotta be in his late fifties by now, so LCN will probably be here twenty to thirty years from now) but he also said that its a matter of time before it goes out of business.

if the things continue to go so bad in Italy, with young people like me who can not find work and are forced to emigrate rather than starve, there will definitely be a new Italian diaspora from 20 twenty years, and most certainly will go in the United States, and others will also come more zips to reinforce the remaining families. Even if the American consul in Italy, made a lottery where there were to be won 50,000 green cards for the U.S.

They'll still be there, as there will always be criminals and everything. They'll be mentioned by the news as always. But I guess in means of power there are already other crime groups there taking over, such as the drug cartels or Russian Mob.

5 families are forever the other families will be long gone by then.

I agree with the new diaspora thing because overall knowledge, data and constant research prove that:

Italian emigration is up 11% since 2010.
That means that in 2011-2012 more than 90 thousands people moved elsewhere. It's increasing by the month.

Also note that this numbers don't include those who haven't forwarded their change of residency to the AIRE (Associazione Italiani Residenti Estero/Association of Italian Residents Abroad). It's mandatory. No fees if you don't inform them. So most don't even bother.

But I don't see this diaspora being directed to the US, like in the past, for several reasons.

1 not all Italians moving out of Italy are willing to be involved in Oc.
Those who want to are already doing it. They don't need to wait for a recession to be sent oversea by their bosses.

Plus the US is the worst place to be a wiseguy due to Rico and all.
Canada is much better for instance...

2 Italians don't need to cross the ocean to find a better place to live. We are not in the 1860s and not even in the 1940s.
Back then Europe as a whole was a dump (due to wars, no industrialization, etc..), so the Americas and Australia were the places to go.

Today, their nationality allows them to move/live/work visa-free all around the EU.

Today's America is not worth the hustle. Not by a long shot.
Immigration fees, Lawyer fees, freedom-limitating visas, mindlessly expensive higher education, awful health care system, etc...

They're best off moving to Austria, Holland, Germany, Switzerland and so on.

Their 3 top choices were: Switzerland, Germany and the UK (and by UK Italians mean London).

The only non-European place where I can see an increase of Italian immigrants is Canada, which, unlike the US, does offer better visas, immigration fees are no existent and/or really cheap, etc...

3 the US Diversity Visa Lottery has been around since 1990.
Remember that it's a lottery. Tens of millions of people apply each year.

55,000 are the ones selected at the first round, but then the US Govt. sorts them out by asking to forward an endless amount of paperwork that not all can manage to get.

There are tons of italian forums about this lottery, the best being www.wop98.com.

we'll still hear about them for a long while. obviously not forever, but the end is nowhere near. I'm no psych so I can't say 20-30-40 years so it makes no sense asking that...at leas not until Nostradamus joins gangsterbb.

They've been on US soil since when? the mid-1800s? And their still here.
Yes, not all and they're weaker...but their still here and some of them are still cashing in millions.

Also, the New Foreign Mobs Threat scenario turned out to be what we expected: fact less hype.
There's sure many other mobs out there, but that doesn't mean that they're all after the LCN.

Chinese gangs have been active in America since the 1800s.
They do their thing, Italians do their own. That's the end of it.

I don't know where the Mafia will be in 30 years, but in the end they might return to what they were in the beginning, simply a revolutionary group opposing "the system".

the 5 families avoided most prosecutions in their early days by murdering witnesses. with the wpp [witness protection program] those days have long since past. with the rico laws, and made men ratting every body out. they will be lucky to survive ten more years, when a boss turns informer.{massino} what does that tell you.?

They were saying that 20 years ago. The 5 families will still be around a decade from now.

The visa lottery is only 50,000 for the entire planet and any country who had more than 50,000 immigrants to the US the prior year is ineligible. So if there is a diaspora they wont be coming by lottery. Italians are coming to the United States to find work, but they make up a small percentage. And Furio, many Italians that are here overstayed their time and get their greencards later, if at all. many of the younger ones come and work and don't care because they are not an enforcement priority. It is easy for a western European to come to the United States because most of those countries are not subject to visas. As far as that goes to where the mob will be in 20 years, who knows. One thing is for sure: The United States is the most prosperous country in the world and more money is made here than anywhere else. If there is money to be made organized crime will ALWAYS exist. And I'm sure, if there is money to be made, our Cugines from the other side will come to replenish the ranks. They are already doing it in elsewhere.

they will always exist. they've existed for over 100 years and a mere 30 years won't change a thing. in all reality the mafia hasn't died they're still pretty strong to date. just because they're not making as much noise today as they once were doesn't mean they're dying. that just means they're much more in the shadows today than they were in 1990s. so they'll probably still be around in 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 more years.

30 years from now you won't notice any difference in New York anyway old rackets will die and New ones will become available after that I think it will become the beginning of the end i think it will start to slowly deteriorate at the moment there is still a large recruiting pool but the quality is weakening and 30 years from now will there be any young guys coming through? I don't think so.

What will happen in my opinion I'd that as the five families start to drop heavily in numbers they will merge together keeping LCN around for a bit longer.

Outside of new York apart from New jersy and maybe areas of boston the mob will be gone fact philly will not last 30 years at its height it had 60made guys now look at it Chicago is already weakening and Detroit is dying 15 years left.

But even after the LCN is gone there will always be organized crime


80. Years from now LCN will be long gone

as long as there is italians in italy that come to the u.s... there are guys doing bids now that will be out 15 20 years..guys coming home that will be in their 60s then..

italian scumbags and mafiosi dont' leave italy anymore it's not the 1950s today the italians who move to abroad are graduated and polite people often form the northern regions... the southern italians move to north italy for the most and among them yes there are several scumbags... i don't think in the future italians will start to move to the states again

Do you think the Ndrangheta can replace the cosa nostra as it did in canada?

ndrangheta didn't replace cosa nostra in canada and i highly doubt it'll replace cosa nostra in the states in north america sicilians are more powerful than calabrians