It happens rarely , but I gotta go with Apple on this one.

The "smart" move doesn't always work out. But just because it doesn't, that doesn't mean it wasn't the smart move.

It happens all the time in gambling. There's always a "smart bet" in any circumstance, based on percentages.

In blackjack, for example, if you have a 16 and the dealer shows a 10, the absolute smart move is to take a card. But by no means is that a guarantee that you will win. In fact, you will lose more often that not, even though you made the smart play.

Oh, and FS: I'll go with the over.