At his birthday party in Havana, Roth tells Michael and the assembled guests:

"At the time of my retirement -- or death -- I turn over all my interests in the Havana operation to [Michael's] control. But -- all of you will share. The National will go to the Lakeville Road boys. The Capri to the Corleone Family. The Sevilla Biltmore, also, but Eddie Levine of Newport will bring in the Pennino Brothers -- Dino and Eddie - for a piece, and also to handle the actual casino operation. And we've saved a piece for some friends in Nevada, to make sure things go smooth back home."

Michael just sits back and smiles.

I find this hard to believe. Michael was driven--to gain control of Roth's Havana gaming empire. Now, in Havana, Michael gets only one hotel (the Capri) free and clear. Roth says he'll give the biggest one (the Nacional) to another mob, and Michael has to share a third (the Sevilla Biltmore) with the Peninno brothers), who get the most lucrative casino operations. And other holdings will go to other people or mobs.

Why would he complacently sit by as Roth promised what seems to be most of his Havana holdings to others? I have my views, but I'd love to hear yours.

Well TB, what could he do? Is he going to argue with Ross in front of everybody? What would that accomplish? Ross intends to murder Michael anyway and Michael intends to murder Roth. So any intended distribution of Roth's assets is moot.

I guess it's as important to know what Michael gets as what the others do. For instance, if Michael's being juiced in for points in future gambling projects then that could be a pretty big deal.

To elaborate on what Oli said succinctly:

Michael’s objective was to be the biggest legal gaming mogul in the Western Hemisphere—at that time, Nevada and Havana. I’m guessing that Roth mentioned to him, early on in their negotiations, that he’d give some of his Havana empire to others for the reason he stated later at his birthday party: “to make sure things go smooth at home." Michael went along because he had no choice, and, probably, because he figured that, once Roth stepped down, he’d either buy out the others, or force them out, as he had Klingman.

The Tahoe shooting showed Michael that the only thing he’d get from Roth was a death certificate. So, his objective for the Havana meeting was to string Roth along until he found out who was the traitor in his family, then have Roth killed before Roth had him killed. The high percentages of his holdings that Roth said he’d give to others may have surprised Michael, but at that point the percentages were moot—Roth would “never see the New Year,” as he told Fredo. The grenade killing showed Michael that Batista was soon going to be history. But I don’t think he had given up on Havana at that point. Even if the rebels won, he probably convinced himself that they wouldn’t shut down the casinos—Cuba’s third biggest industry after sugar and minerals.

There was a possible complication. Michael had to leave Havana immediately after Roth’s murder to escape possible arrest or questioning. That’s why he had the private plane waiting. With Roth apparently dead, what was to stop the Lakeville Road Boys, Eddie Levine of Newport, and the Pennino brothers, from moving immediately to claim their shares—and perhaps Michael’s, since he wasn’t there to stop them? Michael had to wait until he thought it was safe to return to Havana. The others may have thought that they didn’t have to wait—it was their big chance to go one-up on Michael.

Batista’s abdication on New Year’s Eve was a stroke of good luck for Michael—nobody could do anything until the dust settled and the rebels took over. As it happened, Castro immediately closed the casinos, and eventually nationalized all American property. By waiting, Michael saved $2 million.

(N.B.: In real life, Castro reopened the casinos after a few weeks because the hotel and casino workers’ unions pressured him. He hired Joe Louis as official greeter at the casinos, and ran newspaper ads in the US explaining that his differences were with the US Government, not American citizens, whom he loved. No one believed him, and Americans stayed away. The casinos and brothels were shuttered permanently. As a result of Cuba no longer being a prime US vacation paradise, other countries in the Caribbean and the northern rim of South America stepped in and legalized gambling.)

Michael threw a spanner in the works by stating “the rebels could win” Nicely done! The look on Roth's face was priceless indeed

My wife and I visited Cuba 14 months ago. The tour guides all spoke reverently about Meyer Lansky (the real life Roth), but they were probably giving the gringo tourists a good time, so to speak. The Nacional is still Havana's poshest hotel. A major attraction for tourists is a nightly, full-tilt floor show that they bill as an "authentic" re-creation of the kind of lavish costumed gala that we saw in GFII.

No, we didn't see a "Superman" show while we were there. A guy I worked with years ago, who grew up in Miami, played in his HS orchestra. As a reward, the school treated the seniors in the orchestra to a weekend in Havana. He said that, as soon as the ferry from Miami docked in Havana, local touts besieged the kids with offers to see shows "just like Superman."

Sure thing Turnbull that's what they all say!

Whilst both Michael and Roth have already made arrangements for the other to be murdered “will never see the New Year” both continued playing out the charade

Roth begins with “I turn over all my interests in the Havana operation to [Michael's] control. But -- all of you will share” [Key words all and share]

Does this mean Michael – Roth's heir apparent! - still has controlling interest in,
1. The Nacional over the Lakeville Road boys
2. The Sevilla Biltmore over Eddie Levine and the Pennino Brothers
3. The saved piece over the friends in Nevada

That's why! "Michael just sits back and smiles"

BTW: Meyer Lansky, the real-life "Roth," did not own casinos in Havana until very late. He was a big pal of Batista, the once and future dictator of Cuba. After Batista returned in a coup in 1952, he found that tourists were staying away because gambling was hopelessly crooked. Batista brought in Lansky to clean up gambling because Lansky had a reputation for giving the suckers a fair shake--he wasn't greedy, house odds were good enough for him. Batista paid him $100k/year--a small fortune then. He installed his brother Jake as casino manager at the Nacional, and I'm guessing he was in on the skim. But, Santos Trafficante, the Don of Tampa, FL, was the biggest actual owner in Havana. Lansky was the gatekeeper between Batista and the gangsters, and he probably profited from that arrangement, too.

Lansky finally built a hotel/casino, the Riviera, with $5 million of his money and another $6 million from Batista and others. It opened in March, 1958, and started making big bucks. Then Castro took over in January 1959, and Lansky lost everything.

Smooth talking Roth certainly looked like he was anointing Michael as his heir apparent and giving him control of all his interests

That birthday party "anointing" of Michael was an insurance policy for Roth. If his plan to have Michael whacked had succeeded, and people started pointing the finger at him, he could say, "What, me, have Michael killed? Why, I loved him like my son. I was gonna turn over my entire Havana gaming empire to him--just ask any of those thugs who were at my birthday party."

My take, for what it is worth!

Why would Roth [or Michael] need insurance policies?

Nobody other than Fredo and us, the Godfather scholar! Board members knew about Michael and Roth's murder plots of each other

Neither Tom, Neri nor Rocco had any idea and were totally in the dark about - if my memory serves me right, among others,

• It was Roth who tried to kill Michael in the Tahoe bedroom shooting
• Roth's plan B to murder Michael in Havana
• Roth's “anointing" of Michael that Roth “was gonna turn over his entire Havana gaming empire to Michael”
• Fredo was the traitor in the family
• Frankie Pentangeli was alive
• Roth's Plan C – Senate hearing in which Willie Cicci had already been grilled
• Senator Geary was no longer in the Corleones' pocket

If Michael had died, it would seem such a terribly unfortunate death, caught up in the midst of the rebel uprising in spite of being escorted in a military car

If Roth had died smothered by a pillow it could seem a natural death caused by Roth's stroke

So, I believe, neither Michael nor Roth 'needed' insurance policies Whom did they have to answer to? Everyone none the wiser

I doubt! Roth would have used / lost his own money like Meyer Lansky

The ever astute Roth as clever as he is, would have sweet talked all the other 'investors' into financing his [American and Cuban] interests and since Roth always made money for his partners there would have been no complaints

No wonder Roth still had all his millions to offer for his rejected asylum in various countries

Michael too was going to invest $2 million if not for the Tahoe shooting and “the rebels could win”

These insurance policies and alibis don't ring true Whom did they have to answer to?

If Michael had died everything died with him and everyone none the wiser They came to know of Roth's tactics and Fredo's betrayal only because he survived

As we saw at Anthony's party, Rocco and Neri were in on the meeting with Michael and Ola--probably because they were going to have a part in Michael's planned takeover of Roth's Havana properties. They would have been right on Roth's ass if Michael had been killed, demanding their cut.

My take, for what it is worth!

Everything was amicable in Roth and Michael's father / son alliance! Johnny Ola assured Michael at Anthony's party -

Extracts:
“The casino you're interested in.....I've been instructed to tell you that if you move Klingman out, our friend in Miami, Roth the real owner [with the old Lakeville Road group from Cleveland] will go along”

Michael: “That is very kind of him. You tell him, that's greatly appreciated”

Nobody suspected any foul play Michael himself didn't even twig straight away that it was Roth who tried to kill Michael in his Tahoe home

How Rocco and Neri “would have been right on Roth's ass if Michael had been killed, demanding their cut” [what cut?!] even if “they were probably going to have a part in Michael's planned takeover [what takeover?! Michael was Roth's heir apparent!] of Roth's Havana properties”?

Besides everything was work in progress and with Batista gone, Roth's empire like Roth's birthday cake! was gone too Nothing left to carve up for anybody's cut

Well, this is getting to be very interesting exchange of an old thread! We still find views to discuss

As Lana posted what cut?! what takeover?!

He had the private plane waiting because he didn't want to spend any more time here than he had to

Michael turned up in Havana without the $2 million, the 'little gift' to Batista probably padded with Roth's commission!

Then why would Michael get Fredo to bring the money after witnessing the rebel blowing himself up and his statement “the rebels could win”

Michael already knew, he only had until the New Year's Eve to string Roth along / chance of finding out the traitor in the family [with or without the money] both Michael and Roth having made arrangements and believing the other “will never see the New Year”

Perhaps the money was to be payment to Batista for having his thugs kill Michael. Nice touch: Michael pays for his own demise!


Michael needed to keep stringing Roth along until the very end because a) he needed time, until the very end, to find out who the traitor was; and b) Roth could have had him whacked at any time--including well before the presidential New Year's Eve party--if he was certain he wouldn't get the $2 million. The possibility of the $2 million was the only thing keeping Michael alive in Havana.

This sequence points up a major theme of the Trilogy: Greed blinds people. Michael's greed for Roth's Havana gaming empire blinded him to signs that Roth was plotting against him (like, why would Roth interest himself in a two-bit beef between the Rosato brothers and Pentangeli over three territories in the Bronx?). Roth's greed for the $2 million blinded him to signs that Michael was onto him (like, not bringing the money and predicting that the rebels would win).

My take, for what it is worth!

Nice touch indeed Michael pays for his own murder but $2 million is an awful lot of money even for the Head of the most powerful Mafia family!

Somewhat makes sense Turnbull that Michael was dangling the $2 million carrot “The possibility of the $2 million was the only thing keeping Michael alive in Havana” However a lot of Ifs!!

• Will never see the New Year

If Michael had died an unexplained violent death, it would have certainly raised suspicions, perhaps open the floodgates for Rocco and Neri to go after “Roth's ass”

Whilst Roth “could have had him [Michael] whacked at any time--including well before the presidential New Year's Eve party” I doubt, the ever astute Roth having planned so meticulously Michael's murder [terribly unfortunate death] - Michael was caught up in the midst of the rebel uprising in spite of being escorted in a military car, can be 'believable' as Roth was acting like Michael was his son – would just bring forward / change Roth's carefully considered and arranged, Michael's demise

If Roth hadn't had the stroke, a violent death [if Bussetta, Michael's bodyguard, had succeeded] would have certainly raised suspicions – I suppose could have been any one of the guests [unlikely] at Roth's birthday party, greedy for their shares right away unless Bussetta was caught red-handed in the act
[Roth had the stroke but still didn't work out]

• Traitor in the family

If Geary hadn't asked Fredo “where did you find this place?” [Superman club] Michael couldn't have been able “to find out who the traitor was”

Michael's chances of finding out the traitor were seemingly Buckley's and none Geary's question was a stroke of luck

• Havana's great It's Roth's kinda town

If Batista hadn't been forced to resign, I believe Michael would undoubtedly have been murdered by Roth's pre-arranged assassins, in the military car plan or somehow if Michael refused the protection offer

Sure thing Turnbull “major theme of the Trilogy:“ Greed and Revenge affect judgements and lead to under / over estimating especially Michael not cottoning on “why would Roth interest himself in a two-bit beef between the Rosato brothers and Pentangeli over three territories in the Bronx?”

• Roth

Roth played this one beautifully Roth had Michael completely relaxed and confident, in their friendship
When Michael visited Roth in Miami, at Roth's birthday party and after “We are bigger than US Steel” Roth was still sweet talking Michael

• Michael

Michael thought he had Roth's blessing! to move Klingman out as per Ola's message at Anthony's party

Michael didn't even twig straight away that it was Roth who tried to kill Michael in his Tahoe home, believing it was someone inside not realising an outside force [Roth] was involved

If my memory serves me right, among others -

Michael tells,
1. Tom “They [Tahoe assassins] are dead already, killed by somebody close to us – inside”
2. Roth “Pentangeli tried to have [Michael] killed.
3. Pentangeli “It was Roth who tried to have [Michael] killed I know it was Roth” How did Michael suddenly know it was Roth?

I believe, the first, we the audience notice that all is not well in Michael and Roth's friendship was when Michael and Roth gave [Kay's] that look at each, across the table when the Gold phone was being passed around

Then all hell broke loose! the charade finally exposed with Michael's “Who had Frank Pentangeli killed?” [Michael's slip up? that he didn't try to think as people around him think] and Roth's soliloquy

Extract
Anybody kinda rooting for Roth to beat Mike? So wonder how did Michael, what were the signs that made Michael realise, there was an outside force involved in the Tahoe shooting and that force was Roth?

Roth probably kept some, or most, of it for himself--Batista could be bought cheaply.



Roth's plan to have him whacked after the Presidential party was best case--as was his plan to have Michael whacked at Tahoe. But, as we saw, Roth was nothing if not resourceful. He would have quickly come up with another plan to kill Michael. Look how, after having a stroke, nearly being killed by Buscetta and having to leave Cuba, he still almost snared Michael in a perjury trap!



You probably saw a thread I started a while back whose point was that Batista's resignation probably saved Michael's life. The assassins assigned to kill Michael no doubt were lurking inconspicuously at the Presidential party to make sure Michael didn't run out on them or change his plans. Wouldn't have mattered if Roth lived or died because they took their orders from Batista, who had no reason to tell them Roth was the instigator. But, after Batista resigned, the assassins were more worried about saving their own asses than about nailing Michael's.

Michael probably knew, immediately after the bullets stopped flying in his bedroom, that Roth was behind the shooting--the setup of Pentangeli as the fall guy was way too obvious. Roth had far more to gain by whacking Michael than Pentangeli did--as Frankie himself told Michael, "I don't have your head for the big deals." What obsessed Michael after the shooting was: who was the traitor in his family who was complicit in the attack?

Roth had just given his blessing! for Michael to move Klingman out and “was gonna turn over his entire Havana gaming empire to Michael”

So why / how would “Michael probably knew, immediately? after the bullets stopped flying in his bedroom” let alone suspect “that Roth was behind the shooting”

I believe, the first, we the audience see Michael could probably know Roth was responsible for the Tahoe shooting was when Michael asked Pentangeli to help Michael take his revenge – cottoning on “why Roth interested himself in a two-bit beef between the Rosato brothers and Pentangeli over three territories in the Bronx”

We the audience know in hindsight that ”Roth had far more to gain by whacking Michael than Pentangeli did”

Pentangeli always! knew never to trust Hyman Roth, Michael to never give his loyalty to Roth before his own blood indeed

If Michael had died?
I never thought Pentangeli had anything to do with the Tahoe shooting!

I believe, the incredibly resourceful and astute Roth would have already had in place [not that Michael would survive! the Tahoe machine gun fire in such a confined space of a bedroom] all the below which would have come up in Roth's meticulous preparation, to bring Michael down

Plan A – Tahoe bedroom shooting
Plan B – Michael's murder in Havana
Plan C – Senate hearing / brilliant perjury trap

I believe, Roth “quickly coming up with another plan to kill Michael” would be very difficult and not quite as believable “as Roth's best plan to have him [Michael] whacked after the Presidential party” - Michael's terribly unfortunate death

Roth's any other plan of “an unexplained violent death” would have certainly raised significant suspicions that Michael was the only one who got killed unlike the military car which the rebels attacked because the rebels thought the car was carrying important military personnel or similar

It would have been Questadt who got the Senate hearing - which I believe was already put in place by [now 'stateless'] Roth - going and “almost snared Michael in a perjury trap!”

Sure thing Turnbull “Batista's resignation probably saved Michael's life”
However nobody could have predicted Batista's resignation that night, New Year's Eve

If not for Geary's question to Fredo “where did you find this place?” [Superman club] Michael couldn't have been able “to find out who the traitor was”

Extract:
So Michael as obsessed as he was after the Tahoe shooting: to find out “who was the traitor in his family who was complicit in the attack?” would act among others as below, seems implausible to me

1. put Michael's life at risk
2. took an extremely dangerous and uncharacteristically reckless chance in a foreign country
3. with little or no protection
4. knowing Michael was a marked man – New Year's Eve assassination
5. no guarantee the answer of the traitor was in Havana - Roth's kinda town
6. Michael could still find out the traitor back in Tahoe – just a matter of time
7. still has to get to the airport for the private plane

He had already found out Fredo was the traitor in the family

Then still recklessly hangs around in Havana - Roth's kinda town, attends the Presidential party with no protection having dispatched Bussetta on murder duties and knowing he is a dead man once the party is over

I used to think Michael was reckless and irresponsible for leaving his wife and kids in Tahoe, knowing there was a traitor in his family still at large. Then I realized he was being brave: he had to remove himself from Tahoe because Roth didn't care if he endangered his family in his quest to kill Michael. But, by pretending that Pentangeli was the perp, that his relationship with Roth was still good--and by coming to Havana with the promise of the $2 million--Michael was buying time with Roth to find out who the traitor was, and protecting his family by removing Roth's target (himself) from Tahoe.

Michael didn't find out that Fredo was the perp until late that evening. Expecting that Buscetta would kill Roth toute suit, he couldn't leave immediately, with Buscetta, without calling attention to both Buscetta and him, and linking both to Roth's murder. He had to go through the motions by attending the Presidential party to establish an alibi.

A real example of Michael's recklessness is in III: Told that Sicily's top assassin, a man "who never misses," is gunning for him, Michael takes Kay and Mary to the opera house, sitting in a box without any others near them--sitting ducks.

My take, for what it is worth!

I too thought similar that Michael had put business before family “for leaving his wife and kids in Tahoe” after the bedroom shooting until I read explanations including your previous posts

However I am still not convinced that Michael “probably knew immediately” who had organised the Tahoe shooting, let alone suspect Roth but I do understand why Michael removed himself from Tahoe as Michael was the target and the “traitor in his family still at large” because whoever was behind the shooting “didn't care if he endangered his family in his quest to kill Michael”

Whilst I acknowledge Michael leaving Havana without calling attention to himself could have been tricky but could have been done – excused himself! emergency back home - My brother Fredo will look after you [Geary and the other government people]

Perhaps Bussetta could have stayed back inconspicuously and carried out the murders of Roth and Ola - Difficult not impossible

What is the point of finding out who the traitor was [which had been revealed prior] if Michael is dead

I don't believe Michael 'needed' "to go through the motions by attending the Presidential party to establish an alibi” Whom did he have to answer to?

When Michael left “his wife and kids” in Tahoe Michael made arrangements for them, well protected and cared for, with Tom in charge

“Sitting ducks” in Sicily

Michael's choices However Michael was under the impression that Vincent had organised secure protection in Sicily unlike in Havana with not even Bussetta to protect Michael at the Presidential party or after

It is not like Mafia haven't kill civilian women and children Could have been anyone behind the shooting

No point finding out the traitor then Michael dead

How linking to Roth's murder? Bodyguard would have smothered by a pillow it could seem a natural death caused by the same heart attack he's been dying for twenty years

This is an interesting thread.

Regarding Michael's "recklessness" in Cuba, and whether Bautista's resignation saved his life, I think we might be selling Michael a little short.

Michael seems to know Roth's exact plan but is still confident that killing Roth will end the threat. Why?

Is it realistic that Michael assumed that word of Roth's death would get to Bautista almost immediately, and that Bautista would not only not want revenge, but would go out of his way - during the party - to urgently get a hold of the assassins and call Michael's killing off? Why would Bautista make that a priority? It hardly seems like Michael to put his life on the line based on such a flimsy turn of events.

My theory is that Michael had an entirely separate plan to assure his escape, regardless of whether Roth and Ola were killed. Maybe he bribed a legion of soldiers to protect him. Maybe he bribed Bautista himself to double-cross Roth. (BTW, Roth seems to be in the dark about how well the rebels are doing, which calls into question how close he and Bautista really were.) We never see what it was, so it's hard to speculate. But that makes much more sense that him staking his life on such a flimsy chain of events.

A lot of the posts here are based on the fact that Michael was alone in Cuba, except for Bussetta. But that is clearly false. He's arranged his own driver to take him to the airport. He's arranged a plane and a pilot who he trusted enough to stand fast even as the country crumbled around them. If Michael could arrange all that, he surely could have arranged a counter-move to the assassination plan.

Bautista's resignation didn't save Michael's life, it just meant he didn't have to activate his plot.