Michael was hot for Roth's Cuba deal before the Tahoe shooting--coupled with his Nevada holdings, it would have made him the biggest legal gambling mogul in the Western Hemisphere. But, events intervened, and Michael left Cuba with no ownership of anything in Cuba. Nothing was said about Cuba for the remainder of GFII.

Do you think Michael had given up on Cuba? If so, when? Or, do you think Michael may have been waiting--hoping--that somewhere down the road, the Cuban political situation would resolve itself and give him the opportunity to try again?

TB, like so many at the time, Michael may have thought that Castro could be manipulated or overthrown. However, FFC probably had no room in the script for more Cuba.

Interesting question. There is so many things that were left unanswered....that's not a criticism but it would have been interesting to see if he was really done with Cuba and also what happened to the Corleone crime family after 1959-60. Also what exactly became of the Rosato Brothers. We know they were on the run BUT knowing how ruthless Mike was its hard to imagine they would stay alive

Michael seems to be the only one who believes that the rebels can/will win.

Since he realizes that Castro had won the hearts and minds of the Cuban population, he likely believes in the staying power of the Communist regime more than most and probably didn't hold out much hope for future opportunities there.

...and: who took over the NY operation after Pentangeli turned?

I agree with this. He was pragmatic enough to realize it was a lost cause at that point, no longer worth his energy.

Referring also Michael and the $2 million

Michael was hot for Roth's Cuba deal until the Tahoe shooting

It seems Michael presumably knew Cuba was a lost cause as he turns up in Havana without the $2 million [The two million never got to the island]

I reckon Michael “happened to witnessing the suicide of a rebel being taken into custody and his rebels can win” was his get out of jail free card!

Then Michael has the $2 million brought into Cuba by Fredo after his rebels can win “solely as bait to keep stringing Roth along to the last minute so he could find out who the traitor was in his family” seems far fetched long shot!

Initially [until Roth's Moe Greene speech] Michael's reasoning was perhaps Michael believed he had Roth completely 'relaxed and confident'! in their friendship and until Roth gets the $2 million Michael was 'safe'! - Michael's own money for Michael's murder

It seems Michael didn't suspect Fredo until Fredo's slip up at the Superman club

So, how did Michael envisage he could find out who the traitor was in his family?
Was Michael hoping that Roth or Ola would be slippin'? again seems far fetched long shot!

Wonder the other business partners at Roth's birthday, were in, on Roth's guise “At the time of my retirement or death, I turn over all my interests in the Havana operation to Michael's control but all of you will share”
They all seem to accept Michael as Roth's heir-apparent somewhat meekly! too readily!

For a long time I thought Michael couldn’t give up on Cuba—it was too important to his goal of becoming the biggest legal gambling mogul in the Western Hemisphere. He didn’t have to be prescient to know that Batista was ruling on borrowed time—US newspapers in December 1958 were full of stories about the rebels’ gains, and the US State Department had renewed Batista’s US passport (he had dual citizenship) and guaranteed him safe passage to the US if he resigned. Since tourism was Cuba’s third-largest source of revenue (after mining and agriculture), he had reason to believe that the rebels would allow the casinos to operate. And, Castro hadn’t yet revealed himself as a Communist. Michael had to leave Cuba in a private plane to avoid getting caught up in a possible investigation of Roth’s murder. But, I thought he’d wait out the aftermath, and try again to be Cuban gaming kingpin after things settled down.

Now I believe Michael gave up on Cuba for good while he was in Havana. His witnessing of the rebel killing himself and a “captain of the command” may have convinced him that the rebels would prove to be too principled to be bought off and make him Mr. Big in gambling. More important, Roth, at his most clever, poisoned the well:

His birthday party was a move to establish an alibi for himself in case Tom, Rocco and/or Neri, or anyone else, came seeking revenge when, according to his plan, Michael turned up dead: “What? Me order Michael’s death? Why, I loved the kid like a son: just ask any of those thugs at my birthday party.” He also was preparing in case they tried to take over in Havana. Roth pledged, “At the time of my retirement, or death, I turn over all of my interests in the Havana operation to his control. But all of you will share.” He then promised big chunks of the Havana operation to others, and added that he would “save a piece for some friends in Nevada.” Roth probably didn’t know that Michael was planning to kill him before the New Year. But, he probably figured that Tom, Rocco and/or Neri might try to hasten his “retirement or death,” and grab what they thought was promised to Michael. By including others in his plan, he was signaling that they’d have to negotiate---probably fight—others before they could take over. Better for them to keep Roth alive and negotiate with him.

From what we know about Michael, he’d rather have carnal knowledge of a dog with scarlet fever than share one iota of Roth’s Havana empire with anyone. But, while Roth was doling out his holdings, Michael’s face remained impassive. I think it was because he not only knew he was going to kill Roth, but he had accepted by that time that Cuba was a lost cause.

Good analysis TB, but I don't think Michael gave up on Cuba. Although Michael believed that Castro could win, he was prudent to just want to wait. Also, I don't think he imbued Castro with any principles. Remember, the $2 million did make it to Cuba.

Michael did depart Cuba because he thought Roth was dead and that Batista would come after him. That environment was too unstable for Michael to remain in Cuba; Batista could be approached at a later date. Castro's impending takeover just lent itself to the instability, but Michael could wait on him also.

As far as Roth establishing an alibi, Michael's people were not going to be deterred from revenge by any Roth alibi if Michael was murdered in Cuba.

If “Michael gave up on Cuba for good while he was in Havana” ie: not before his arrival [after the Tahoe shooting] why turn up without the $2 million though

It seems apart from Fredo nooneelse knew that Michael had figured out it was Roth who tried to kill Michael in his home unless the ever astute Roth was covering all the bases with his birthday speech alibi for Michael's 'unfortunate political' death

Michael was hanging around at the New Year's Eve party probably as he had to be seen being the host, for Geary and the government people, having a good time, Fredo's specialty!

However if Michael had accepted Cuba was a lost cause / "Just want to wait" and “Hyman Roth will never see the New Year” hanging around in Roth's stronghold was too risky even to “find out who the traitor was in his family”

If Geary had not asked Fredo, how Fredo found the superman club and Fredo had not slipped up, Michael would have been none the wiser as to who the traitor was in his family
Concede the slip up did happen, nevertheless how did Michael envisage he could find out who the traitor was in his family? Bussetta threatening Ola with a coat hanger?!

As regards the carving up of Roth's empire, my misunderstanding – I inferred from Roth's birthday speech that Roth was 'anointing' Michael as the future Roth, the boss having control and making money for the partners

He didn't go to Cuba expecting Roth to tell him who was the traitor in his family. He went because he needed to get away from Tahoe, for the safety of his family and himself:

The Tahoe shooting proved two things: First: Although Michael was the target, Roth was ruthless enough to have his bedroom sprayed by machine gun bullets--and too bad if Kay was collateral damage. Second: there was a traitor "very close" to him. If he remained in Tahoe, he'd still be a target, and his family would still be in danger. By taking himself away from Tahoe, he was removing the target from his family. And, as long as Roth was greedy for the $2 million, Michael could buy time to find out who was the traitor.

I don't know how he thought that being in Cuba would bring him closer to finding the identity of the traitor. But it was certain that he wouldn't find the answer by remaining in Tahoe--all he'd find was mortal danger to his family and himself.

Thanks Turnbull for your clarification

I am not disputing “Michael went because he needed to get away from Tahoe, for the safety of his family and himself as Michael was the target”

Fair enough!
I was somewhat confused by the $2 million “solely as bait to keep stringing Roth along to the last minute so Michael could find out who the traitor was in his family”
I get it now, chances are closer and better to finding the identity of the traitor ["very close" to Michael, back in Tahoe] in Cuba than Tahoe

Continuing “we'd never met”! charade
Ola turning up at Michael's table – awkward encounter for seemingly squirming Fredo....

Are we sure about that? Although Michael tells Tom why he's leaving, how did he arrange his transportation and bodyguard so quickly? He departs at night, right? That night? From where did his bodyguard materialize? When did he have time to arrange his meeting with Roth? It seems quite possible that his trip to Miami and Cuba was arranged before the attempted murder.

He probably had arranged to go to Havana before the shooting. Roth would have told him that he (Roth) needed to introduce Michael to Batista as part of his "promise" to turn everything over to him. He could have arranged the visit with Roth in Miami with a phone call that night.

The train, and the sudden arrangement with the bodyguard, were products of FFC's Directoral License inventory.

So, if Michael doesn't witness the roadblock explosion, he doesn't believe the rebels can win? If so, does that change his strategy?

No, I don't believe the rebel suicide was the decisive factor, though it may have added to his perception that Batista was governing on borrowed time, and that perhaps the rebs couldn't be bought.

Didn't the government people know Michael was a common Mafia hood

The whole Cuban government at the time, including Batista, were common hoods.

Note that, after Batista announced his resignation, people take to the streets and some are assaulting parking meters with baseball bats. That really happened. Batista installed the meters and told Cubans that the revenue would go to a children's hospital. The money went into his brother's pockets.

You know TB, I've always argued that Michael's trip to Cuba was insane. Doing it to string Roth along or to find out who was the traitor in his family was not worth his life. Despite Michael's apparent knowledge of Roth's murder plan for him in Cuba, Michael could not be sure that he wouldn't be murdered or imprisoned otherwise. There was no reason for him to hang around for New Year's Eve? If he knew he was going to murdered on his way home that night, how did he think he was going to be able to simply and safely exit the party? If Batista did not abdicate, Michael would have remained at the party and his murder would have taken place, right? I know that it was all FFC's creation for dramatic purposes, but it is a stretch.

Oli, I created a thread on your viewpoint several years ago: Batista's thugs would have been shadowing Michael at the party and would have killed him--in a car for "his protection" or any other way or at any venue--whether or not Roth was killed, and whether or not they knew it. They had their orders. What saved Michael was Batista's abdication. All they cared about at that point was saving their own skins, not rolling up Michael's. And, while Michael had a good idea that Batista was governing on borrowed time, he could not have known when Batista would abdicate.

As I posted earlier in this thread: Michael did have reason to leave Tahoe to protect his family. But it's not clear why he thought he could learn who was the traitor by going to Cuba and stringing Roth along.

Well TB, what will never be clear to me is why Michael would risk entering the lion's den knowing he was to be eaten alive. Needing to leave Tahoe for his family, he initially went to Miami. He could have stayed there or gone to NY.

...but then we wouldn't have had that magnificent Cuba sequence--the best part of GFII.

Magnificent indeed! In a deleted scene, Michael asks to see the Superman show again (hmmmm!).

I worked with a guy who'd grown up in Miami. He played in his high school band, so the school gave the band members a nice graduation present: a trip to (pre-Castro) Havana. He said that the moment he and the others got off the ferry, they were surrounded by touts trying to steer them to sex shows..."just like Superman."

My wife and I were walking, arm in arm, down the Boulevard in Vegas one crowded night in 1994, and every five feet, sketchy-looking guys were shoving flyers into my hand shilling for "escort services--to your hotel room...no intermediaries [pimps]...all credit cards accepted." Jeez, a harmless old couple like us, looking like we were heading to the nearest Social Security office.

I watched GF last night and I think I noticed two things.

When Tom is telling Sonny to make the deal if Vito dies, I think I can hear Clemenza talking to someone, probably Tessio. Has anyone heard that?

Also, when Michael runs up the hospital steps, you can see the whole hallway of the 2nd floor at the end of which Michael is facing a wall with a small desk up against that wall. Vito's room (#2) is to the right in an alcove of sorts. However, when Michael and the nurse maneuver Vito's bed to another room, none of the above is in sight and now the steps are right near Vito's room.

Yes Clemenza and Tessio are thinking of names and making their hit list of who to kill.

It's not mentioned in the movie (at least not in the theatrical versions), but the mob made donations to Castro, too. Johnny Rosell's bio "All American Mafioso" goes into detail on this, as do a couple of Hoffa books. The mob played the field in the Cuban revolution. By most accounts, Castro scammed the mob by promising them to let them keep their casinos when he took power, prompting them, of course, to donate to his cause, then turned his back on them once he took over. This is why the CIA reached out to the mob to assassinate Castro. They knew the mob wanted him dead as bad as anyone. Then we get to the Kennedys, which is a similar story. The 1960s...

Meyer Lansky allegedly hedged his bets by giving money to both Batista and Castro. Santos Trafficante was jailed by Castro when he took over; Lansky supposedly arranged for his release.

I don't feel I have to wipe everyone out, just my enemies

Always wondered! about ruthless Michael
Cuban revolution - why didn't he have Fidel Castro killed
Vatican immobiliare - why didn't he have God killed

The government people at the superman club were fawning over Michael, standing up to shake his hand One of them even addressed Michael Sir

I acknowledge the pezzanovantes not wanting to upset Mafia Michael [though insincere] but over the top!