A discussion in another thread prompts me to ask this question:

Suppose Roth had succeeded in having Michael killed--either in Tahoe or Havana. What would have happened to the Corleone Family enterprise? Your views?

Well TB, there have been any number of Dons murdered and their former criminal enterprise continued. Given that II never identifies any other families at least around New York, I don't know if any other family would have moved in. I doubt that the Rosatos would have had what it takes to do so. Could Neri and Rocco have taken the reins of the family. Of course, Frankie was in command of the New York troops at the time. Was he formidable enough to fend off the Rosatos or anyone else? Would he have cooperated with Neri?

For storyline purposes it would have worked out, but having an outsider like Roth murder a Don (or even try to with impunity) is rather suspect.

Perhaps there is another incongruity in the II.

At the time that Michael is nearly murdered, the Corleones are still in charge in NY. Now, the film doesn't tell us if Roth had follow-up plans to take NY from the Corleones, but I don't recall any such action in the film by Roth (or the Rosatos).

However, Roth's plans to have Michael murdered in Cuba appears to be coordinated (as some Board members have opined) with his takeover in NY through the murder of Pentangeli, right?

Your analysis.

Oli, my analysis is that Michael was holding onto NY for three reasons: First, he got tribute from Pentangeli. Second, some of the NY high rollers were potential customers for his Nevada junkets. Third and most important: NY was Michael's muscle-in-reserve: a deterrent to other gangsters possibly wanting to horn in on his holdings. If Michael had been killed in the Tahoe shooting, Pentangeli would have been blamed. He'd have been on the run, and the Rosatos would have stepped into the void and presented Michael's successors in Nevada with a fait accompli. When the Tahoe shooting failed, Roth went to Plan B: Lure Michael to Havana, get the $2 million from him, and have him assassinated. Michael had already told Roth, in Miami, that "Frank Pentangeli is a dead man." Even though he didn't mean it, it cleared the way for the Rosatos to whack Pentangeli. Since Michael was supposed to be killed in Havana, it would be the same fait accompli for his successors in Nevada.

So, what would happen in Nevada if Michael had been killed?

As you point out, other Dons have been killed and been succeeded successfully. But, Michael's Nevada operation wasn't a Mafia family, strictly speaking: it was semi-legitimate, and regulated by the Gaming Commission. If Michael died, his political and business connections that kept the enterprise treading the narrow line between legitimacy and criminality would die with him. Fredo would be the nominal heir and successor. But, he was weak and stupid, and fatally compromised by his participation in the Tahoe plot. Even if he didn't know it was gonna be a hit, his coglionii would be in Roth's pocket forever.

Rocco and Neri were forceful and ruthless, but probably in the dark politically. Tom would have had some of Michael's political/business knowledge and contacts. But, he'd probably support Fredo, which would put him in possible deadly conflict with Rocco and Neri. All Roth would have to do would be to sit back and let them fight each other. Then he could go to the Gaming Commission and convince them that important Nevada sources of revenue--the Corleone casino holdings--were in jeopardy due to an internal war among gangsters that was blighting the reputation of the gaming industry. The Gaming Commission would step in, seize the licenses and put the casinos into trusteeship. Guess who'd pick them up after that?

“If Roth had succeeded in having Michael killed--either in Tahoe or Havana” Roth would have done us a huge favour! – No Godfather 3!!

My take, for what it is worth!

If Pentangeli had been killed or in custody, Rosato brothers, Roth's ally would try to take over Pentangeli's Corleone operations in New York as Roth intended

“If Michael had been killed in the Tahoe shooting, Pentangeli would have been blamed”
Pentangeli could not have known Michael's exact response for certain that Michael would side with the Rosato brothers / Roth

How can Pentangeli be blamed?
Pentangeli would have had no time to arrange the Tahoe shooting unless Pentangeli anticipated Michael's response and came prepared which seems highly unlikely especially as Pentangeli “I don't have your brain -- uh -- for big deals”

I think Tom would probably have taken the vice-presidency of the house and hotels offer and moved his wife, his family, his mistress, them all to Las Vegas even before Michael's funeral!

“Rocco and Neri were forceful and ruthless, but probably in the dark politically”
If Rocco and Neri had the stomach to fight for Pentangeli's Corleone operations in New York and came to some sort of joint partnership or similar, I think they would have been able to pull it off as they were always in the muscle-end

However I believe, Corleone casino holdings is probably beyond Rocco and Neri unless Tom opted to 'rescue' the business eg: increase the kick backs, more Nevada junkets etc.

If Tom, Neri and Rocco can figure a way to work together, keeping Fredo as a figurehead? “difficult not impossible” to try to keep the Corleone casino holdings going

Roth can't finger Fredo without incriminating Roth in the process

Then again without “always knew you were too smart to let any of them beat you” Michael's political and business connections, Tom in spite of “There's a lot I can't tell you” the smart lawyer that he is, might find a Khartoum, a girl with no family as if she never existed....oh wait! Tom is not a wartime consiglieri

As you say, Turnbull “All Roth would have to do would be to sit back and let them fight each other then pick up the Corleone casino holdings

Roth may not even bother with Fredo as Roth would have no further use of Fredo

And nobody, figures out it was Roth all along

Thoughtful post, Lana.


Pentangeli had come to Anthony's party contentious over Michael's support of the Rosato brothers--and Michael's support of Roth over him. He had a loud argument with Michael in the boathouse, witnessed by Tom and Neri. Roth wasn't there because of "ill health," but he sent Johnny Ola with the promise of a big deal in Havana. Pentangeli would have made the perfect patsy for the Tahoe shooting. You saw how scared Pentangeli was when Michael showed up at his home in NY, and how absolutely relieved he was when Michael said he wanted him to "help me take my revenge."


That's an interesting proposition. But, I think Tom would have stayed if Fredo weren't whacked or banished immediately.

While moving to the "House and Hotels" might have made far more business sense for Tom, I also think family loyalty was more important to him. The Corleones were his family ever since he was a small kid. He was loyal to Michael even though he wasn't Michael's choice for brother or consigliere, and Michael was curt and abusive toward him (look how he practically broke down in tears of gratitude when Michael said, after the Tahoe shooting, "You're my brother, Tom"). He probably would have thought that his brother, Fredo, needed him more than ever--certainly more than Michael did.



Logical enough in a conventional business. But, Mafia is an absolute monarchy--there's only one CEO. I think Rocco and Neri saw themselves as competitors. They probably had no respect for Fredo because he was weak and stupid; and no respect for Tom, who was never in the muscle end, and who was more often than not at arms-length from Michael. "Difficult, not impossible" for them to cooperate. But, I think bloodshed was more likely.


If Michael had died in Havana, the finger would have pointed at Roth. But Roth, clever fellow, had foreseen that. That's why he chose his birthday party to anoint Michael as his successor--an alibi: "What, me have Michael killed?? Why, I loved the kid like my own son. Just ask any of those thugs who were at my birthday party!" At the same party, he promised big chunks of his Havana empire to other families. So, the Corleones have to think twice about all the other powerful families who'd been promised parts of Roth's holdings--and who'd see a move by the Corleones to whack Roth as an attempt to grab what was promised to them.

Thanks Turnbull

“Tom probably would have thought that his brother, Fredo, needed him more than ever--certainly more than Michael did”
Spot on! I had forgotten about brother Fredo and Tom's family loyalty

A side question please, how would Tom react / handle the situation if Tom somehow found out Fredo's role in Michael's [and Kay's] murder? Even the children if they had come to play with their toys

Whilst “Pentangeli had a loud argument with Michael in the boathouse, witnessed by Tom and Neri” Pentangeli's parting words were,
“You'll have to excuse me -- I'm tired, and I'm a little drunk! And I want everyone here to know -- there's not gonna be no trouble from me!”

I can appreciate! how scared anyone would be if Michael Corleone, showed up at their home, unannounced, especially after Michael's murder attempt, then absolutely be relieved when they realise it is not them Michael is after

Though I still can't see how “Pentangeli would have made the perfect patsy for the Tahoe shooting”
Perhaps initially but the logistics of arranging the Tahoe shooting, in such a tight time frame, seems far fetched

You are right! Neri and Rocco bloodshed was more likely
Neri and Rocco were too much in competition with each other and whilst I believe Neri was the smarter of the two, I don't think Neri had his own men like Rocco

As you say, Turnbull, Roth, clever fellow, played Tahoe and Havana beautifully

Vulture is a patient bird indeed
“All Roth would have to do would be to sit back and let them fight each other then pick up the Corleone casino holdings after all the bloodshed

That is a great question, Lana.

It's hard to get a read on Tom's feelings for Fredo, in general. I don't recall them interacting much in the movies.

Tom would know that Fredo is unable to handle running the Family. It's possible he would stay on to help if he didn't know that Fredo was involved in Michael's killing. But it's hard to believe that he would support an unqualified (and surely doomed) Fredo if he blamed Fredo for killing Michael.

In fact, thinking a bit more about this, Tom might well have taken the legitimate offers if Michael had been killed. He was not a muscle guy. Could he reasonably expect Neri and Rocco to be content working for him (or Fredo) for an extended period of time? Did he think that he (or Fredo) could withstand the pressures the Rosatos were putting on the Family in NY?

Tom was always loyal but also a very clear thinker. Without Michael, he might have gotten out while he still could.

Tom knew that Fredo was involved in the Tahoe shooting. When Michael returned from Havana and was alone with Tom, the first thing he asked was, "Where's my brother?" And Tom knew he was in NY, so he had to know why he wasn't back in Nevada with Michael. Also, at Mama's wake, Fredo asks where Michael is, and Tom says Michael "is waiting for you to leave." After Michael learns that Pentangeli is alive, Tom tells Michael that "Fredo says he knows nothing--and I believe him," even though, as we saw later, Fredo knew plenty. I think Tom had a soft spot for Fredo.

"Tom knew that Fredo was involved in the Tahoe shooting" only because Michael survived the Tahoe shooting and came back alive from Havana

GFII provides us with a paucity of information about the underworld at the time. Did it consist of the Corleones, Roth, and whatever family (if any) represented by Ola? For sure, both Ola and Roth referenced some OC people and one gang ("The National will go to the Lakeville Road boys. The Capri to the Corleone Family. The Sevilla Biltmore, also, but Eddie Levine of Newport will bring in the Pennino Brothers -- Dino and Eddie - for a piece, and also to handle the actual casino operation"), but it's a challenge to believe that NY's OC population consisted solely of the Corleones and Rosatos.

Had Michael been murdered, Pentangeli was already in place. Who besides the Rosatos would have challenged him for NY dominance (I don't think the Rosatos could have seriously challenged him).

My two cents worth!

Tom and Fredo, sentiments aside....

If Michael had died, nobody figures out who was behind the murder plot, nobody even suspects Fredo and he gets away with his betrayal

If Tom somehow found out Fredo's role in Michael's death, I can't see him brothering Fredo after knowing what he has done

I reckon Tom might well have taken the legitimate offer, on the earliest flight, out of Tahoe to Las Vegas

Pentangeli runs his family without Michael on his back

Roth picks up the Corleone casino holdings after all the bloodshed

If Michael survives the Tahoe shooting but dies in Havana, with Pentangeli in custody, perhaps

Willie Cicci takes over the Corleone operations in New York

If Fredo's betrayal is not found out and Tom opted to 'rescue' the Corleone casino holdings [supposedly legitimate business] and employs Roth's 'strategy' from Roth's birthday party – Neri and Rocco, all of you will share - to make sure things go smooth....

Roth can't finger Fredo nor show his hand, without incriminating Roth in the process

“And Fredo -- well -- Fredo was -- well” –
Big ask to nurture Fredo, giving Fredo at least a glorified face saving role, to show that Fredo is valued in his own right or similar

If Tom somehow found out Fredo's role in Michael's murder, I too “can't see Tom brothering Fredo after knowing what Fredo has done”

I think Tom would probably have taken the vice-presidency of the house and hotels offer and moved his wife, his family, his mistress, them all to Las Vegas even before Michael's funeral!

To keep this thread going:

Remember that Pentangeli was supposed to be killed by the Rosatos in that bar, just as Michael was supposed to be killed in Havana. Cicci was totally loyal to Pentangeli, and would have been a threat to the Rosatos. I think if the Rosatos had succeeded in killing Pentangeli, they would have gone outside and killed Cicci, who was "waiting in the car." And, as it happened, Pentangeli survived and was taken into custody. So was Cicci. Sorrry, Willie, no New York "Olive Oil Business" for you.

I think there was no way Tom could have left the Family. He knew too much--business/political contacts, and incriminating info on Michael, Rocco and Neri. If Tom had told Michael, "Yeah, I'm taking that offer from the House and Hotels," Michael would have had him whacked as a defensive measure. If Michael had been killed, Rocco and Neri would need him to front the business. If he refused, bada-bing, for the same reason.

As for Tom and Fredo: Tom was loyal to the Family to a fault. He followed Michael's lead after Havana. We don't see any evidence of his trying to convince Michael to take Fredo back into the fold (as did Connie). But, he was Michael's liaison to Fredo-in-exile. Even if Michael had been killed, and Tom knew that Fredo had a hand in it, I think he would have found some rationale to support Fredo in some way, both to stay connected with the only family he ever had, and to avoid severing his ties, which would put him in mortal peril.

As I opined previously, we just don't know who were the other players in the NY OC. I am leary of any suggestion that an outsider such as Roth could murder a Don without the support of at least one other family. I don't consider the Rosatos to be one such family.

If Michael is murdered the night of the Communion, Pentangeli takes over. If Michael is murdered in Cuba, then Pentangeli and Cicci are already out of the picture and Neri and Rocco contest with the Rosatos and whoever else has can challenge.

Tom could be of assistance, but if he's not a wartime Consigliere, then he's certainly not Don material.

Fair enough!

“no way Tom could have left the Family” when Michael was alive
If Tom had told Michael, "Yeah, I'm taking that offer from the House and Hotels," Michael would have let Tom go....in a box!

However with Michael dead and knowing Fredo was involved....

Tom “both to stay connected with the only family he ever had, and to avoid severing his ties”
Tom does have his own family, wife Teresa, children and might just might couldn't wait to sever his ties, “without Michael, he might have gotten out while he still could”

I acknowledge, Rocco and Neri would need Tom to front the business but still doomed due to the internal war and bloodshed

“Tom knew too much--business/political contacts, and incriminating info on Michael, Rocco and Neri”
Tom “I never know no Godfather I don't know nothing about that. I got my own family” and would / could always plead the fifth Amendment?

Is everyone forgetting Fredo ?

If Pentangeli is in custody so is Cicci

Didn't the Commission remove Bonanno as Don and replace him with Digregorio? Following Michael's death, would the Commission have replaced him? If so, with whom?

There are instances where Dons have been removed by other Dons (Genovese removes Costello); where a family member has taken over by murdering the Don (Gotti and Castellano); where the Don was imprisoned (Gigante and Rastelli). Which of the foregoing is the most plausible if MIchael died?

As I opined above, there's no novel or film indication of the composition of the NY underworld in the 50s and 60s. We cite Pentangeli, Neri, Rocco, and the Rosatos as players, but noone else except Roth (with Ola) who was not Mafia.

Interesting question, Oli. We see Vito with the Commission in GF, and Michael with them in AC in III. But, there's no Commission in II, even though we know that the Commission existed in the Fifties and met (famously, in Apalachin NY, in '57). My guess is that Michael, obsessed with his "legitimacy" in Nevada, would never have attended a Commission meeting for fear of exposing his Mob-ness. He probably had Pentangeli sit in for him, as Gigante had Fat Tony Salerno sit in for him while The Chin was pretending to be non compos mentis. Of course, that begs the question of why Michael would preside over a Commission meeting in III, when he was even more "legitimate." But then, it's one of many things about the plot of III that are illogical.

Well spotted Capri I am slipping!

All bets are off! as to who takes over the Corleone operations in New York

I've heard it many times, they were thinking of having joe spinell (Willie Cicci) in the original plans for three. He was a rat that testified at the Senate hearing leading to have Frankie Five Angels having to testify because of the "buffa" issue with Cicci never getting a direct order from Michael. So, how the Hell does he get back in the good graces of the family?