I tend to agree with you Woltz. Apparently, Michael had assets in Cuba; how else would he know about Roth's plan to murder him?

I don't think Michael was acting recklessly in Cuba. He operated with the confidence and assurance that he knew Roth was behind the Tahoe shooting, and that Roth wanted him in Cuba so he could be killed. He also was confident that Roth still thought Michael believed that Pentangeli was behind the shooting and that their relationship was still good. A classic example of the Corleones' craft of making your enemies relax and get careless by thinking you're weak or stupid.

Michael, like every American who read newspapers in '58, knew Batista was governing on borrowed time. He couldn't have known when Batista would resign. But, I think he was being ultra-careful by going, very visibly, to the Presidential party while Bussetta was attempting to kill Roth. He ordered the plane so he could get out of Cuba fast, before the authorities could start rounding up suspects in Roth's death. Even though Bussetta tried to smother Roth so it might look like a natural death, Batista and whoever else was in on the plot against Michael would have linked him to Roth's death--and in a dictatorship, they don't need warrants and court orders to round up suspects.

My take, for what it is worth! - from what we saw in the movie

Batista too ”seems to be in the dark about how well the rebels are doing” Batista gave assurance that according to his staff the rebels will be driven out of the city before the New Year!

Sure thing Woltz Michael arranged the below which just one phone call to the Hotel Concierge and voila! everything in place
1. his own driver to take him to the airport
2. plane and a pilot

Michael also knew a place Fredo and Michael can spend some time together

Nobody could have predicted Batista's resignation that night, New Year's Eve which resulted in the “country crumbling around them”

So, I don't think it is about Michael “trusted the pilot enough to stand fast” irrespective....
I believe, the pilot would have been just a regular commercial pilot, may not even know who his passenger/s are [arranged by the Hotel Concierge] and perhaps blissfully unaware of all the rebel uprising chaos, standing by at the Airport

As regards “Michael seems to know Roth's exact plan” for Michael's New Year's Eve assassination If my memory serves me right -
Turnbull had a credible theory that Michael would have twigged straight away as to why Michael needed to be escorted in a military car for his protection
[when according to Roth “This county's had rebels for the last fifty years It's in their blood” and it is business as usual]

Whilst Michael would among others “staking his life" seems implausible to me as well but seemingly that's what Michael did!

I don't think Michael thought “killing Roth will end the [Michael's assassination] threat” nor Batista was even a consideration for Michael because I believe Michael would not want Roth or Ola's bodies found until Michael was out of Cuba not because I believe Michael could be linked to the deaths but to avoid the hassle, delay and Michael having to play the grieving son!

I am not sure Turnbull "Michael also was confident that Roth still thought Michael believed that Pentangeli was behind the shooting and that their relationship was still good"

I believe the charade was finally exposed with Michael's “Who had Frank Pentangeli killed?” Roth's soliloquy and Ola looking smug that Michael has no idea Pentangeli is alive, Michael is no match for Roth

Mafia's code of behaviour is a convenient myth! among others,
1. Don Ciccio would have killed Vito if the orphaned Vito had been found
2. Hooker with Tattaglia
3. Geary compromise Hooker
4. Spraying machine gun fire into bedrooms with women and children would not be out of the question! either

So what we saw in the movie the fact that Michael was alone in Cuba, except for Bussetta is clearly false

Right. I'm speculating. Just because you don't see anyone in the movie but Bussetta doesn't mean he was Michael's only support. Most of what we talk about here goes beyond what's on the screen.

But we do know that Michael had a driver, a plane and a pilot. He correctly believed that his plane was "the only way out of here tonight." His life depended on getting out of Cuba ASAP, plus he remained confident that they would work for him even with Bautista's men trying to kill him and, as it turned out, even with the government being overthrown. I don't believe that he would have had that trust in people he randomly found at the concierge desk at the hotel. Those were guys he trusted, not hired hands.

True, my theory that Michael had plan to get away even if Bautista hadn't abdicated is more speculative. But it is rooted in the nature of the characters we see on the screen. Michael was cunning, cautious and stragetic. It would be hugely out of character that he would have "twigged" to Roth's plan and then walked right into it without so much as a single bodyguard. OK, he had arranged a separate car, but that would only have helped him if he made it to the car in the first place (and if the driver was prepared to out-gun Michael's military escort). Did Michael expect a team of assassins have let him simply decline their offer of a ride and go about his way? Surely, Roth would have made sure they would have kept a close eye on Michael. Could Michael have failed to realize that?

I don't think so, which is why I believe that Michael had an off-screen escape plan.

My two cents worth!

Michael and Roth sentiments aside....

What would have happened if Batista had not resigned?
No doubt I reckon the assassins assigned to kill Michael would have carried out their assignment and murdered him

We all know Coppola's fanatical attention to details that he would leave out and not even give an indication of Michael's counter-move if any, to the assassination plan which he didn't have to activate his plot due to Bautista's resignation is not in accordance

As Turnbull posted the assassins would have been shadowing him, keeping a close eye but once Batista resigned they were more worried about saving their own asses than about nailing Michael's So Batista's resignation probably saved Michael's life.

How would Michael find trusted driver and pilot in foreign Havana? I reckon they were run-of-the-mill hired hands At that stage, Batista governing and nothing out of the ordinary someone hiring a private plane out of Havana after the New Year celebrations

Michael was cunning, cautious and stragetic but he did slip up with Roth in the beginning and as Turnbull posted was obsessed with finding the traitor

Exactly Woltz It would be hugely out of character as discussed uncharacteristic and implausible he was hanging around without so much as a single bodyguard.

Why he was being ultra-careful by going, very visibly, to the Presidential party? Everyone knows he is not going to personally murder!

Most of what we talk about here might go beyond what's on the screen but in conjunction with what was seen in the movie as well
It is nice, fun to flesh out the different opinions, interpretations, speculations, knowledge of the Forum members, in the spirit of the Board Why we are still going!

I''m guessing that he had Tom arrange the driver and the plane. I'm reasonably sure he was in constant touch with Tom.


I think that coming with only a personal bodyguard was part of his plan to make Roth "relax" by thinking Michael felt reasonably safe in Roth's territory and didn't suspect that Roth was going to have him killed. Then why bring a bodyguard at all, you may ask. Because not bringing any personal security would make Michael look uncharacteristically stupid by not being at all concerned with personal safety. And, by not bringing Neri and/or Rocco, he was signaling Roth that he hadn't ruled them out as possible conspirators in the Tahoe shooting.

Yes, he was being ultra-careful to distance himself from Buscetta's deed and to create an alibi for Roth's killing, "just in case."


That's it in a nutshell!

Just because you don't see anyone in the movie but Bussetta doesn't mean he was Michael's only support or means just that

How can he have guys he trusted, in foreign Havana? his plane was "the only way out of here tonight he still has to get to the airport Michael's plans worked because the government being overthrown No Batista resignation ride in the team of assassins car like Tessio Driver, separate car, private plane, pilot no use

If he had an off-screen escape plan, what would it have been?

Michael might have been in constant touch with Tom but I can't see Tom arranging the driver and plane from Tahoe Why? He would know even less about Havana than Michael who was actually in Havana

As Lana posted, the hotel concierge arranging them makes more sense and I also reckon they were regular hired hands

Keep up! Turnbull
I don't think any of us are disputing Michael's plan coming with only a personal bodyguard

It is the going we are thrashing out, Michael hanging around attending the Presidential party without so much as a single bodyguard and knowing he is a dead man once the party is over

Creating an alibi? Whom did he have to answer to?

The only issue I see is Bussetta being caught in the act which would no doubt link Michael to Roth's killing
If he was not out of Cuba fast no doubt he would have a lot of explaining to do but money talks especially that $2 million

Again as you posted Batista's resignation probably saved Michael's life but why take this uncharacteristic and unnecessary risk?

Hot off the press!! Bussetta was caught in the act and killed Roth survived Michael escaped

I could easily be wrong, but it seems the best strategy would be to have a plane dispatched from the US with a known pilot who would wait and wait.

I believe “a plane dispatched from the US” undoubtedly would have attracted attention

Roth knew the $2 million never got to the island and then Fredo had brought a bag full of money so “a plane dispatched from the US” would have been flashing neon lights!

Whilst I believe the private plane whether Cuban or American would have waited and waited, standing by for their passengers - the Cuban pilot may not even know who his passenger/s are [believe the plane arranged by the Hotel Concierge] Michael still has to get to the airport

How Michael planned to dodge? give the slip? to the "team of assassins" who would have been “lurking inconspicuously at the Presidential party to make sure Michael didn't run out on them or change his plans” to “carry out their assignment and murder him”

So, brings us back to, why Michael needed
1. to attend the Presidential party
2. an alibi Whom did Michael have to answer to?

Now my sources tell me we can teach old threads new tricks!

No doubt US plane on stand by would have got Roth's sixth sense working overtime

It looks like we have to go back to Godfather school for answers
1. why Michael needed to attend the Presidential party
2. why Michael needed an alibi Whom did Michael have to answer to?
3. How Michael planned to dodge? give the slip? to the "team of assassins" to get to the airport, board and take off

There can be a tendency to impute omniscience to these characters in their cat-and-mouse games. Havana was a big city, a tourist city, a party city. People had been shuttling to Miami by air for probably forty years. I don't think anyone could keep track of every plane amongst so much traffic.

True Pete I reckon keeping with the sixth sense trend Roth could! Good point

Whichever plane, he still has to get to the airport

He saw Military marching in still hanging around No escape until Batista resignation

It was suspenseful, Michael watching like a hawk, the Military Police marching in wondering whether they were his Military 'protection'!

As regards Michael “still hanging around” even after Michael saw the Military Police, they were marching away from Michael So, Michael must have twigged something more serious than his murder assignment was happening

My queries please and somewhat confusing take!

• Military Police informed Batista of his untenable position due to the rebels taking over
• Whilst no one could have known of Roth's stroke, the Military went to Roth's hotel to check / inform Roth, Batista's old friend and associate of Batista's resignation due to Roth's no show at the New Year reception
• Military must have found out Roth was in the hospital and took care of Batista's old friend and associate Roth
• No brainer the Military or plain clothes personnel would take Michael away in full view of all the guests
• Fredo broke free of Michael's “You broke my heart” embrace and seemingly walked quickly out of the Palace
• Michael made his smart lone exit down the Presidential Palace steps
• The assassins after “Batista resigned were more worried about saving their own asses than about nailing Michael's” So under the same circumstances, why would the Military Police worry about Roth?

Historically, Batista's assassinations and other dirty deeds were done not by the military but by his Bureau for the Repression of Communist Activities (BRAC), which was funded by the CIA. They were, technically, civilians. I'm guessing that they were depicted in Roth's hotel room, just after Buscetta strangled Johnny Ola--"Relax, Senor. Roth, we are taking you to the hospital." That scene was before Batista announced his resignation, so they were still "on the job," not covering their asses. The uniformed military people who barged into Roth's hospital room and killed Buscetta were portrayed that way by FFC, I think, for effect: to demonstrate that Roth had clout with the Cuban government--in other words, "directoral license." This was a rare example of where FFC's fanatical attention to detail slipped up: The officer who killed Buscetta used a revolver; but since the US armed Batista's forces, his standard sidearm (handgun) would have been an auto
loader--a Colt Model 1911, same sidearm used by US military at that time.

Thanks Turnbull I appreciate your additional explanations and interesting tidbits as it undoubtedly enriches our enjoyment of the movies

Why would “Batista's buttons! (BRAC) be depicted in Roth's hotel room before Batista announced his resignation” when it was business as usual and all their plans arranged by Roth including Michael's murder, were in place

“Rare example of FFC's fanatical attention to detail slip up:" - Coppola should have known, Turnbull, this wouldn't escape your eye!
[(BRAC) in civilian clothes, may not have had the same dramatics]

?? I'll guess that Batista had his "old friend from Florida, Senor Hyman Roth," watched constantly by BRAC, and maybe the military, to protect him since Roth was paying him for the hit on Michael. Perhaps the Dr. who examined Roth was connected to the government and told BRAC that Roth was in a bad way. That might explain why those plainclothes guys were moving him to the hospital, and why that military detachment charged into his hospital room, probably after Johnny Ola's murdered body was discovered.

I thought Paramedics [missed the plain clothes!] were moving Roth to the hospital after Roth's wife, Marcia presumably called for assistance

You are right Turnbull All those little gifts to the President came in handy! indeed
Roth's sequence of events – stroke “plain clothes guys moving him to the hospital, military detachment charging into his hospital room” - were constant watching / protection by Batista's BRAC and Military

Tom told Michael at the Desert Inn -
“Roth got out on a private boat, he's in a hospital in Miami He had a stroke but he recovered okay”
“I think Fredo got out He must be somewhere in New York”

What would be our ongoing re-vamp, re-visit 'revolving door'! [what's new?!] take as to how Roth and Fredo - after Batista resigning, leaving the city immediately and being caught up in the midst of the rebel uprising - got out of Havana?
1. Roth “after having a stroke and nearly being killed by Buscetta”
2. Fredo alone “walking in a daze”

Roth wife arranged the private boat Fredo was -- well -- alone in rebel uprising only Coppola know

Roth's wife could have arranged the private boat through the hotel concierge if it was still functioning or Batista's people if they have not deserted them after his resignation

How did Fredo get out? How could anyone find him in all that chaos

What was Rocco doing at the Desert Inn? Why did Michael stop over there Tom and Neri were there too

I discussed those points in this thread:
http://www.gangsterbb.net/threads/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=472494&Searchpage=1&Main=16944&Words=%2BFredoRoth+%2Bconspiracy&Search=true#Post472494


A guess is: directorial considerations. Logically, Michael would have met all three at his home in Tahoe. But, FFC was planning to make Michael's return to Tahoe into that deeply melancholy scene we saw (his gift to Anthony of the little car abandoned in snow, Kay working at her sewing machine without looking up when he came in, asking Mama if he could lose his family), so FFC "took care of business" by having him meet the Big Three in Vegas before returning home.

Also TB, holding the miscarriage et al discussion at Tahoe would have been somewhat awkward. As you point out, FFC wanted the drama of his and Tom's conversation which would have been less so at the compound.

No doubt directorial considerations FFC taking care of business and our ongoing re-vamp, re-visit 'revolving door'!

No doubt he was in deeper with Roth than he let on We thought before, he came with Roth in their private boat I reckon that theory is now up for exploring other options

So how did he get out?
1. If he did come with them how did they find him in all that chaos?
2. Who would know their relationship Roth in a coma was in no position to tell anyone anything
3. Why would they even bother looking for him, needle in a haystack scenario, their priority would have been sick Roth and getting out

I guess one possibility would be that he glommed onto Geary or some other big shot they spent the night with. They wouldn't know about a split between the brothers, so would see helping Fredo as a favor to Michael.

Geary and the other big shots were rushing to the US Embassy, trying to pass through the gate, everyone for himself

Fredo had already left before Batista's resignation How can the scared, stumbling and walking in a daze Fredo get to the US Embassy even if he thought of it

Roth's plan would have been to stay on in Havana after Michael's assassination
So there would have been no private boat already waiting like Michael's private plane because Roth never thought “the rebels could win”

I doubt Fredo was even a consideration even if Fredo and Roth's alliance was known, “their priority sick Roth and getting out" of Havana

Michael's return from sunny Havana to snowy Tahoe, no wife no children greeting him was a telling scene However....

• Kids do get tired of their toys so the little car [Michael's Christmas 'gift'!] was perhaps not quite abandoned It was perhaps too big to drive around indoors so left out for Anthony to play later
• Kay knew Michael was back [in Vegas] but may not have known Michael was actually home in Tahoe, not heard him with the whirring of the sewing machine

Whilst I acknowledge the drama factor including “Was it a boy?” what was awkward for me, was Tom telling Michael such a personal, distressing, private matter of Kay having had a 'miscarriage' and losing the baby

Anyhow the sequence of events certainly put us in a melancholy mood! that -

• Tom was telling Michael, the husband, Kay, his wife has had a 'miscarriage' instead of Kay telling Michael, herself
• Michael's first question to Tom at the Desert Inn was “Kay know I am back?” but then Michael doesn't even greet Kay when Michael sees Kay at home in Tahoe knowing Kay has had a 'miscarriage'
• Michael instead of comforting and talking to his wife, Kay [not dissimilar to Michael's talk! at Hotel Washington] who has just had a 'miscarriage' walks through heavy snow “to ask Mama if he could lose his family”
• If Michael had talked to Kay instead of Mama or both Kay and Mama, perhaps their marriage might, just might...could have stood a chance of being saved

“The Big Three in Vegas” - Who was minding Michael's wife and his children, the future of the family, at Tahoe
No wonder Kay was able to have the abortion!

Tom telling Michael was awkward

He trudged through heavy snow to talk his Mama blind to his wife

The Big three didn't return to Tahoe with Michael He was the only one in the big car