What led Michael to conclude, very soon after the Tahoe shooting, that Roth was behind it?

FFC told Michael: "If Roth wasn't behind it, then I have to rewrite the whole screenplay."

However, more seriously, who else? Who were Michael's enemies? None that we know of except Roth. No mention of the Commission or any other Dons. However, it is curious that a non-Mafioso like Roth thinks he can murder a Mafioso (and a Don none the least)
without Commission support.

What the audience sees is largely just one side of a chess match. I think that until deep into the movie, the Ola-Fredo phone call is the only thing that overtly shows who is on the other side.* I think that all we're left with is that Michael is reading the people around him and has decided on Roth because of the audacity of the attempt, and also because Roth has just made a friendly concession to Michael.

*There's also the bizarre presence of the Senate lawyer with Roth in Havana.

My take, Michael finally twigging during his train ride as to why Roth from Miami was openly backing the Rosatos, the Corleone rivals in New York against the Corleone people, in effect against Michael “led Michael to conclude, very soon after the Tahoe shooting, that Roth was behind it”
I am not sure Pete how “Roth [having] just made a friendly concession [presumably moving Klingman out] to Michael” make Michael decide Roth was behind the Tahoe shooting? Wouldn't the “concession” sway the suspicions away from Roth?

FFC told him.

"Eyes on the prize":

Roth set it up to have the finger of suspicion point at Pentangeli. But, Michael would have asked himself, "What was in it for Frankie?" Pentangeli, by his own admission, did not have Michael's "head for the big deals." He had no eyes on Michael's gambling interests in Nevada, nor on Roth's in Havana. Despite referring to the "olive oil business" as "my family," Pentangeli was subordinate enough to Michael to come to Nevada to ask Michael's permission to whack the Rosatos. Michael would have thought that his "no" was not enough motivation for Frankie to risk everything, and become a hunted man, by killing Michael. If he wanted to defy Michael, he could have killed the Rosatos anyway--risky, but a lot less than killing Michael in Nevada. More proof: Pentangeli didn't run or hide after the shooting, and agreed with Michael's request that he "settle these differences with the Rosato brothers."

Conversely, Michael saw very soon that Roth's prize was to hold onto his Havana empire and, over time, take over the Corleones' Nevada properties through his hold on Fredo and the almost certain chaos that would follow Michael's death and the struggle for succession. As Michael said to Fredo in Havana, "He thinks he's going to live forever."

when do you think he twigged that Roth was behind it? was it during his train ride or Pentangeli didn't run or hide after the shooting

I'm guessing that Michael knew immediately after the shooting that he had to leave the Tahoe estate at once. Reason: he would have figured out that he, not Kay, was the target; but the man behind the shooting was ruthless enough to not care if Kay or even their kids were "collateral damage." He also knew, right away, that there had to be a traitor close to him who helped set it up. As long as the traitor and/or perpetrator were at large, and as long as he remained at the estate, his family was at risk.

So, I'm guessing, he zeroed in on Roth during the train ride. He called on Pentangeli, I'm guessing, to put him to a final test--asking him to stick his head in the lion's mouth by meeting with the Rosatos. Once Frankie agreed, Michael was convinced it wasn't Frankie--it was Roth.

My take, for what it is worth!

Roth undoubtedly wanted Michael dead soonest but blinded by revenge, Roth outsmarted himself with the Tahoe shooting plan and messed up big time!I believe Michael understood that whilst Michael was Roth's successor, the heir apparent, Roth was always going “to hold onto his Havana empire” until Roth's retirement or death and at the time, Michael would inherit Roth's interests in the Havana operation

Hence
Anybody kinda rooting for Roth to beat Mike?

I doubt Roth would want “his hold on Fredo” to get around, incriminating Roth in the process
Besides Fredo would have been totally in the dark about “the Corleones' Nevada properties” and a liability even if Roth wanted to “over time, take over”

I now believe Roth was not a greedy man, for the Corleones' Nevada properties nor the $2 million but of course if they fell into Roth's lap, Roth will take it Bonus!

Michael was disgusted with himself how he hadn't seen through Roth's deceit including Roth's blessing! for Michael moving Klingman out and taking over their hotel - Roth “acts like I'm his son -- his successor -- but he thinks he's gonna live forever and he wants me out”I acknowledge it is guessing scenario however I believe Frankie was never a contender that Michael never thought Frankie had anything to do with the Tahoe shooting

I believe, the reason Michael sent Frankie to the Rosatos' meeting was to continue to appease and string Roth along including Michael had not twigged, it was Roth all along and also to find out the traitor in the family not “to put him [Frankie] to a final test” nor Michael needed to be “convinced it wasn't Frankie”

Sure thing Turnbull Michael initially believed it was someone inside, telling Tom “They [Tahoe assassins] are dead already, killed by somebody close to us – inside” it seems neither Pentangeli nor Roth were even suspected?

You see this in the Havana scene where he and Fredo are having their drinks. He tells Fredo that he'll be assassinated before he reaches his hotel. Fredo says, "Who?" Michael says, "Roth," and he says it with disgust--IMO, not only for the idea that he'd be assassinated but also because he'd fallen for Roth's line of BS until the shooting.


Hardly. The last thing Michael said to Roth in Miami was, "Frank Pentangeli is a dead man--you don't object?" But, instead of having Frankie killed, he instructs him to have the meeting with the Rosato brothers. Roth should have been alarmed by that because it signaled that Michael didn't suspect Frankie in the shooting after all--meaning that he must be suspecting someone else. Also, Roth should have been suspicious that Michael asked if Roth would object to his having Frankie killed--why would Don Michael ask Roth's permission to kill a subordinate who,supposedly, was responsible for the Tahoe shooting? It was as bad as Michael failing to question why Roth interested himself in the Rosatos' beef with Frankie over three territories in the Bronx. Roth was slippin'...

Michael and Roth said a lot of sweet nothings! and flattering each other, in Roth's house

Michael told Roth “I'll visit him [Pentangeli] soon
Why would Don Michael visit his “subordinate who, supposedly, was responsible for the Tahoe shooting?”
Pentangeli is a dead man “subordinate“ who tried to have his Don killed

My take, Michael's "Frank Pentangeli is a dead man--you don't object?" to Roth was more of a statement than question [ie: Michael was not “asking” for “Roth's permission”] in keeping with the continuation of their charade

Michael: "I want you to know about it [there is gonna be more blood shed] before it happens so that there's no danger of starting another war"
Roth: "Nobody wants another war"

I doubt even if Roth was “alarmed” that Michael “instead of having Frankie killed, he instructs him to have the meeting with the Rosato brothers” which “signalled” Michael “didn't suspect Frankie in the shooting after all--meaning that he must be suspecting someone else” [not Roth!] it would have mattered or bothered Roth because according to Roth, Michael was not coming back alive from Havana

I believe, Roth was not fooled by Michael's sweet nothings! either

I tend to agree Michael was not “asking” for “Roth's permission” it was statement than question Then Pentangeli is a dead man, you don't object.

The only inside contenders are Neri or Rocco
Roth was slippin'...with the Tahoe shooting and Pentangeli as the fall guy

I reckon at Roth's house, it was still the old and sick great man teaching the wise and considerate young man the important things charade If Michael twigged that Roth was behind it during his train ride, when did Roth twig he had figured it was him?

As we often do in these forums, I will stray from the forum's subject as I did in my post above

How plausible is it that a non-mafioso like Roth would come to order the murder of a mafioso, especially a Don. As I posted above, there's no reference to Roth's attempted hit on Michael being sanctioned by the Commission or, for that matter, any other mafioso. Are we to believe that Ola was the only sanction necessary? If Ola was really Joey Alo, it should be noted that Alo was only a capo in the Genovese family. Perhaps we could assume that Genovese (or his fictional equivalent) sanctioned the hit. I don't. Certainly, Roth could have allied himself with one or more of the families with the intention of eliminating Michael and then splitting up the Corleone spoils among Roth and his mafiosi confederates. However, for Roth to simply strike out on his own would be suicidal. It all just seems so implausible.

Of course, Michael eliminated the other Dons a few years earlier, right? Do their families still exist? If so, who heads them? Are those families subordinate to the Corleones? Madonne!

The first conclusive signs, we the audience notice that all is not well in Michael and Roth's friendship was when Michael and Roth gave [Kay's] that look at each, across the table when the Gold phone was being passed around but both Michael and Roth continued playing their cat and mouse games, each believing the other will never see the New Year

Michael's “Who had Frank Pentangeli killed?” set Roth off on his soliloquy
Roth was livid, Michael asking who gave the order for 'dead' Pentangeli because it had nothing to do with business same as Roth let someone putting a bullet through his loved and trusted, Moe Greene's eye go

However Roth's parting words to Michael, like their relationship is still good
Whilst Michael and Roth's friendship may have soured! their business relationship is still good?!

I am wondering whether Roth ever twigged that Michael had twigged it was Roth all along who set up the Tahoe shooting
If Roth did so at all when? What gave it away?

• ”Pentangeli didn't run or hide after the shooting”
• Michael didn't have Pentangeli killed
• Pentangeli went to have the meeting with the Rosatos
• Roth probably presumed Pentangeli was handing over the three 'promised' territories in the Bronx to the Rosatos in accordance with Roth's wishes!
• Pentangeli and Rosatos meeting “signalled” to Roth that Michael “didn't suspect Frankie in the shooting after all--meaning that he must be suspecting someone else”
• So whom did Roth think was that someone else? seemingly not Roth!

Roth and Ola didn't even suspect, there is no indication that they had figured they will never see the New Year
Otherwise Roth and Ola would not have been so slack considering how Michael's bodyguard, Bussetta was able to just walk into Ola's hotel room and killed him

If not for Roth's stroke, Bussetta would have probably murdered Roth in Roth's hotel room
If not for the Cuban Military Police, Bussetta would have been able to murder Roth, in the hospital

Roth came back to America to vote! not a concern that Roth could be murdered by Michael

So, what's your answer gonna be, Turnbull?

Did Roth ever twigged? Looks not

Part of the greatness of that last scene in Roth's hotel room is that, by that time, both of them were onto each other--and each knew that the other knew. Michael already knew when and how Roth planned to have him killed (as he told Fredo). And, I'm guessing that, when Michael sent Pentangeli to meet with the Rosatos instead of having him killed (as he told Roth in Miami), Roth had to have been thinking that Michael didn't suspect Frankie in the Tahoe shooting--meaning that he might suspect Roth. Roth's suspicions had to have been fanned when Michael didn't bring the $2M to Cuba, and when Fredo did, he didn't turn it over. I think the final straw was when Roth demanded the money and Michael replied, "I just wanna wait."

But, never underestimate the power of greed to trigger self-deception: Even if Roth had concluded that Michael thought he was behind the Tahoe shooting, he still held out for that $2 million. The clincher: After Michael asked, "Who had Frank Pentangeli killed?" and asked "Who gave the order?" Roth replied with the Moe Green story and emphasized that he "let it go because it had nothing to do with business!" He was telling Michael to let the failed Tahoe shooting go because it had nothing to do with the business they were transacting right then in Havana--desperately trying to buy time to get the $2M and then have him whacked after midnight. And Michael, who could have had Buscetta whack Roth and Ola right there, was desperately buying time down to the last minute to see if he could find out who was the traitor in his family.

I always thought that it was peculiar that Roth,with all of his street smarts,cunning,and treachery,was so rattled when Mike asked him who had Pentangeli killed,that he wasn't able to lie convincingly. The way he avoided Mike's gaze,albeit (only for a moment or two),and the totally evasive way he answered "The.............Rosato Brothers" wouldn't have fooled even Fredo. I was almost expecting him to say "Yeah, the Rosato's. That's the ticket ! Any thoughts?

Thanks for the answer
Roth was getting him whacked after midnight but not know he knew

These different, interesting and varied takes, are what keeps this, what a nice board! still going decade after decade indeed

My take, it was still the clever, cunning Roth still playing the harmless, old sick man – hesitant, acting dumb “The [thinking....trying to recall] Rosato brothers”
Roth still in his element and the Oscar goes to....!

I believe what made Roth's mask slip was Michael's “I know but who gave the go ahead. I know I didn't”
How dare you? You have the gall insinuating and interrogating the great man!

My debatable! theories

The confusion for me is – Turnbull, are you saying? whilst “Roth had to have been thinking and been fanned when Roth couldn't get his hands on Michael's $2M that he [Michael] might suspect Roth was behind the Tahoe shooting” however did not twig Michael was planning to murder Roth [and Ola]

Sure thing Michael's “Who had Frank Pentangeli killed?” set Roth off on his soliloquy and the charade finally exposedI am not sure “Roth was telling Michael to let the failed Tahoe shooting go” I believe Roth was telling Michael to let 'dead' Pentangeli's order go, same as Roth let Greene's order go

It seems Roth and Ola didn't even suspect, there is no indication that they had figured they will "never see the New Year" nor “he [Michael] might suspect Roth was behind the Tahoe shooting”

Otherwise Roth and Ola would not have been so slack, sitting ducks considering how Michael's bodyguard, Bussetta was able to just walk into Ola's hotel room and killed him Then Bussetta almost killed Roth

That was No Heart Attack

I also believe there was no “greed” Roth was not “desperately trying to buy time / holding out for the $2M” [Michael was all set to be “whacked after midnight” with or without the $2 million] but of course if the money fell into Roth's lap, Roth will take it Bonus! and use Michael's own money or part thereof to pay for Michael's own murder Poetic justice indeed and revenge made sweeter!

knew what?

When Michael went to Roth's house he had already figured that he was behind it but he never did He was creating diversion It was Stupid -- people behaving like that with guns Nothing to do with him

Both continued pretending their relationship was still good until that last scene He knew he was all set to be “whacked after midnight” but he had no idea he was planning to murder Roth [and Ola]

I reckon way beyond the power of greed and revenge, Roth was slippin'....vastly underestimating if he thought after his soliloquy, he would fall for his partner talk and be a sitting duck for his assassination

Did he think Michael with just a bodyguard in Roth's Havana is a dead man

Roth's top priority was to get rid of Michael to stop him from encroaching on his gaming empire. His Plan A was to have Michael whacked at Anthony's party, and make it look as if Pentangeli was behind the killing. The $2 million wasn't part of Plan A, although Roth (or Ola) probably would have told Michael that he'd have to present $2 million "as a gift o the Cuban President" to seal the deal--it would add credibility to Roth's "promise" to hand over his Havana holdings.

But, when Plan A failed, Roth went to Plan B: bring Michael to Havana and have him whacked there. Now the $2 million became all-important because Roth would have to pay all or part of it to Batista to have him arrange for Michael to be assassinated in a military car taking him back to his hotel after the New Year's Eve party.

Michael with just a bodyguard in Roth's Havana is a dead man but friend and associate is protected

Roth had already arranged for Michael to be assassinated in a military car but the contract money has not been paid awaiting the all-important $2M

Roth was slippin'.... if he thought he was still going to get the money after his soliloquy

I reckon the assassination was going ahead with or without the $2 million No doubt it would have been worth it for Roth even if he had to pay his own money but no Bonus!
However he showed his hand with his Plan A warning bells otherwise he would have never suspected and been a sitting duck in Roth's Havana

Roth never twigged that Michael had twigged that Roth was behind it